After a long summer of ads and attacks, the Governor’s race is almost exactly the same as it was roughly two months ago.
The latest Franklin and Marshall poll was released today and it shows Tom Wolf holding a 49% to 24% lead over Gov. Tom Corbett. 25% of respondents were undecided.
This actually marks a small improvement for the Democratic candidate since June, when he held a 47-25 advantage.
Wolf’s lead holds throughout every age, income, religious, regional, racial, educational or gender status. Additionally he holds a 34 point lead among Independents (53-19) and a whopping 46 point advantage among moderates (59-13).
At least a partial explanation of these results can be found in the Governor’s approval ratings. Just 24%, less than one in four, of respondents feel Gov. Corbett is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as Governor. The GOP Governor holds just a 40% approval rating among Republicans. Even worse, only 26% feel he has done well enough to warrant re-election.
Meanwhile, 61% believe the state is “off on the wrong track.”
These results are particularly devastating for the Corbett-Cawley camp because they come after a period in which the Republican nominee unleashed far more ads than his opponent. They don’t seem to have done the Gov any good, in fact they may have been harmful.
F&M found 82% of respondents had seen a commercial for both candidates. They asked these people what the viewer recalled most from those ads. For Corbett’s spots, 27% remembered the negative tone. For Wolf’s spots, negativity finished third behind his business location and background.
Perhaps the best example of the Governor’s difficulties involves guns. Last week, the PA GOP made a big deal about a supposed gaffe from Wolf concerning gun owners. Yet the Democratic nominee leads even among this traditionally conservative group (40% to 36%).
Of course, there is still some time left and a large number of respondents are undecided. The possibility that every undecided voter will turn to Gov. Corbett, though, is quite remote. Currently, 24% of Republicans support Wolf and it would not be surprising to see that number come down as the faithful rally behind their candidate. The Democrat’s margin is still likely to narrow in the coming weeks and months. The Governor, however, must find a method to further chip away at his opponent’s lead and fast, or else he won’t hold that title much longer.
This poll surveyed 520 Pennsylvanians and was conducted from August 18 to 25. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3%.
This should help Mr. Corbutt in the polls:
Jesus, he was a handsome man. What do you think of your blueeyed boy now Mr. Death?
Who must go: Brabender, the Bakers and Jeff Romoff, the Aicheles, the Nutts, the Gleasons, Chuck Zogby, Luke Bernstein, and Jenny from the block Branstetter! Harrisburg and the PAGOP need to call a fumigator!
Will the Republicans, likely to hold at least one of the two state houses, use the kind of obstructionism against Governor Wolf as we see in DC?
“Sadly, Wolf will have difficult decisions to fix the mess the republicans have created. Watch them squeal and blame wolf and democrats for fixing their mess.”-Happy Days
You mean like Ridge and the pension problem (Pay your bills on time and you don’t have debt)?
Tom Corbutt is the worst politician, and one of the people of my lifetime! A true reverse Robin Hood!
Wonder when Corbett going to pull a McCord? Or will the Governor go out gracefully?
60 years of the Eight-Year Cycle comes crashing down. Hard.
Look, Corbett was the wrong guy from the start of his electoral career. From a political standpoint, his career as AG was a disaster if the goal of the state GOP is to win elections. He comes into office hated by the legislature and does nothing to fix that. His ethics lapses and speaking gaffes are legendary. Everyone involved in state politics knows two things: 1) Corbett is the creation of Bob Asher and got to where is is as the beneficiary of some asinine feud the has raged in Montgomery County for decades and ultimately destroyed the party there. 2) Corbett has been toast in his re-elect for two YEARS! And the State GOP headed by Asher abetted by Rob Gleason has bulled ahead anyway because they can’t admit their mistakes of years’ past. If you’re a Republican, don’t blame Corbett. He has risen to the level of his won incompetence. In other words, he can’t help it. Republicans should lay the blame for this, losing all the row offices, Santorum etc. right at the feet of the people who picked the losing candidates: Asher and Gleason.
With Wolf’s victory all but assured, the effort by Wolf, State Dems, and Fresh Start should be to help flip as many Republican seats in the legislature to give Wolf the most cooperative group he can put together to work with him.
What is most striking about the results is the strength of Wolf in Southeastern and Southwestern Pennsylvania. The top of the ticket is going to be very strong in areas with key Congressional, State Senate and State House races
Wolf is Rendell. Higher taxes. Everything goes back to Philly. Wolf is Rendell. Wolf is Rendell. Wolf is Rendell. Wolf is Rendell. Wolf is Rendell. Wolf is Rendell. Wolf is Rendell.
Tom Corporate doesn’t deserve reelection. Wonder how long before house and senate GOP candidates begin to distance themselves for Corbett. Sadly, Wolf will have difficult decisions to fix the mess the republicans have created. Watch them squeal and blame wolf and democrats for fixing their mess.
“This actually marks a small improvement for the Democratic candidate since June, when he held a 47-25 advantage.
Wolf’s lead holds throughout every age, income, religious, regional, racial, educational or gender status. Additionally he holds a 34 point lead among Independents (53-19) and a whopping 46 point advantage among moderates (59-13).”
Better call Saul!