They are moving Pennsylvania from the “Lean Democratic” category to the “Likely Democratic” category.
The PA gubernatorial race is the only one they have favored to move from Republican to Democratic hands and one of only two seats likely to switch parties (Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn from Illinois had his race categorized as “Lean Republican”).
“This race only continues to slip away from Corbett — not least because businessman and former state revenue commissioner Tom Wolf easily won the Democratic primary and has kept building his lead over Corbett,” writes Louis Jacobson.
Jacobson mentions the recent RMU poll as a factor in their decision but also points out the more serious underlying issues affecting the Governor’s effort at re-election.
“Subsequent polls showed a narrower gap, but it will be hard for Corbett to fundamentally reinvent himself at this late date; he and his record are simply too well known,” he writes. It didn’t help that the GOP-controlled Legislature didn’t go out of its way to push along his agenda.”
Despite the fact that the Republicans are favored to have a good overall election result, Jacobson feels Gov. Corbett’s campaign is in serious trouble.
“While Democrats face a challenge keeping turnout high in a midterm election, it would take a near-miracle at this point for Corbett to win,” he concludes.