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PA-Gov: Internal Memo: Corbett Down 7 Points

With more troubling polling news emerging, the Corbett campaign is diligently working on predicting Election Day turnout.

Sources provided PoliticsPA with an internal Corbett campaign memo that discusses the various election models that BehaviorMatrix has forecast for November 4th.

“BehaviorMatrix collected and analyzed actual voter turnout data from the past three gubernatorial off year elections in Pennsylvania,” the memo reads. “The model uniquely matches retrospective results with likely voters, and further defines eligible voters as part of its calculus.”

In contrast to most polls which survey registered voters, the BehaviorMatrix model seeks to narrow its focus towards likely voters. After studying the last three gubernatorial elections, the model projects an electorate close to the 2002 election.

“As for the 2014 election, BehaviorMatrix’s model predicts a much closer race,” they write. “The predicted turnout of likely voters is estimated at 3,920,229 voters with the Governor trailing Wolf by 7 points instead of 20.”

“As mentioned above, the campaign needs to focus on the same counties that Rendell used to win in 2002,” it continues. “The campaign needs to focus on increasing favorability or demotivating oppositional turnout in the following counties: Philadelphia (trailing by 72) Montgomery (trailing by 28), Lackawanna (trailing by 26), Bucks (trailing by 20), Northampton (trailing by 13), Chester (trailing by 12), Luzerne (trailing by 12), Allegheny (trailing by 10), and Fayette (trailing by 8).”

Finally, the document contains county maps of the 2014 projection compared to the results in 2002, 2006 and 2010.

Corbett Maps
County-by-County breakdown of 2014 model as well as 2010, 2006 and 2002 gubernatorial results

It’s clear from this memo that the Corbett-Cawley team believe they have still have a reliable path to victory.

Update: Below are some better resolution photos of the maps:

2014 Corbett Map

2010 Corbett Map

2006 Rendell Map

2002 Rendell Map

26 Responses

  1. Their figures may be close to reality for Southwest PA but way off in the rest of the state. To think they will carry Centre County is hilarious. To say they are down only 0.8 in Erie County is really funny. Up 28 points in York and 31 in Lancaster– delusional.

  2. These guys must have run Eric Cantor’s polling. The Republican House Majority Leader thought he was 27 points ahead as a Tea Party unknown clocked him in the primary.

    None of the scenarios calculated in the last four gube elections account for a governor who has been in the poll’s toilet for over 3 years, because he has laid such waste to PA’s job creation, credit rating, outright big business favoritism with no frack tax, fracking in state parks and forced pooling of little land owners, implementation of franchise and capital tax breaks as public schools dropped 20,000 teaching jobs. All of this while simultaneously offending our sensibilities with ghost employees, mixing campaign and tax dollars and letting a child predator skate for an extra 8 months until after the 2010 elections.

    The part about dissuading voter turn out in Philly is hilarious. The only reason millionaire Governor Corbett won in 2010 was because 60% of Philly Dems sat home. Today – Mr. Corbett cannot show his face in Philly without protests about school funding. Look for massive Democrat participation this time around.

    On a personal level, there have been myriad insults to women, the unemployed, unions, Hispanics and homosexuals.

    The Medicaid deal emerged now because millionaire Governor Corbett essentially caved on all fronts. The feds did allow their program to be run by private firms, but only with equally or more stringent guidelines. The only thing Mr. Corbett accomplished was to deny the poorest among us health care for an extra year.

  3. This map is not a poll, but Democratic versus Republican turnout model with historical averages. I would say their turnout model is right within range, maybe slightly low. Their county by county scores run much higher to the Republican side. Example they have a +31.3, it will likely be a turnout differential of 29.7%. What this really fails to see is the impact of crossover voting today rather than historical data. It is laughable that Corbett will beat Wolf in York County by 28.5%, especially when you consider the Republican turnout will only be a + 25.4%. Keep living the dream folks. This is more fantasy than I care to indulge in.

  4. When all the legitimate polls show you 20 points behind, there isn’t much you can do but to release an “internal” poll with much different results. It’s an old political trick. Corbett appears to be well on his way to the worst defeat of any candidate in PA in modern history. The real question is whether he will drag all the Republicans down with him in the legislature in swing districts. Obama has insulated the Repubublican US Congressional delegation but he can’t effect the state House and Senate races. Corbett will be lucky to crack 40% of the vote and only if everything breaks his way..

  5. Erie County at -0.8? I know the GOP did its best to gerrymander Erie County’s House and Senate seats and U.S. House representation, but seriously?

    Allegheny at -10 and York at 28.5 are even funnier.

    This really IS delusional.

  6. This is pure fantasy. Corbett is currently lagging GOP legislative candidates in solidly red mid-state districts by as much as 20 points. When Wolf’s ads start airing next week hammering Corbett on cronyism (Nutt, Tomalis, etc), trying (and failing) to privatize the lottery…doing nothing on the pension crisis for four years, he is finished. Wolf by 11.5 points.

  7. Producer Class? Who let the 15-year-old Randians on the comment thread? Go back to shrugging – oh wait, you’re probably a wage slave and another “temporarily embarrassed millionaire”… in which case, back to the grind! Someday you’ll strike it rich and show us!

  8. This is a vaguely sad exercise in self-delusion. I can’t decide whether the projected wins for Corbett in Centre or York are funnier, though.

  9. I think it’s fair to say that BehaviorMatrix is hired by the Corbett campaign, but it’s also fair to note that they also hope to be hired by others, to be respected and have credibility. Would they be so stupid as to render their own credibility worthless by way of generating ridiculous calculations?

  10. This state is finished. With do many deadbeats on the taxpayer subsidy, the final nail in our fiscal coffin will be electing Wolf as governor. If you think Obama and Holder have been great for this nation, then you will love the progressive hell Wolf and Kane will unleash on us.

  11. This must be from the Karl Rove School of election Prediction, otherwise known as “trying to keep the donors from asking for refunds.” The only phrase that rings true is that time-honored Republican strategy: “demotivating oppositional turnout” – by Voter ID, Police at the polling booths, Mailers with incorrect poll locations, you know, the standard R tactics.

  12. I wonder how much BehaviorMatrix was paid for all this? The overall turnout number is going to be close to 2010 election. 3.9 to 4 million is a back-of-the-envelope calculation looking at current registrations and turnouts. 3.75 million of the currently registered voters voted in 2010. Given an attrition rate close to 1% each election, with new voters registering to replace the old, it’s easy to arrive at a ballpark estimate.

    The presence of Stack will help with Philly turnout.

    Wolf/Corbett is going to be a bigger blowout than Rendell/Swann.

  13. Along with the observations posted about York County, I offer the following observations about the projections:
    -Erie County with a nominal D win?
    -Corbett thinks he’ll be competitive in Centre County. Where do I even start with that line of reasoning…

    The fact that camp Corbett acknowledges D gains in SWPA and into the coal regions tells me to project worse than what his map is calling for. If Skook is competitive, it’s a really bad day for Corbett.

  14. Complete BS – Romney won York by 43 points 2 years ago. 30 is probably about right if Corbett is really down 8.

  15. Ok…this ridiculous map has Corbett winning Republican counties by more than Rendell lost them in both 2002 and 2006, based upon the disaster which was Onorato 2010. Please.

  16. Hasn’t the time arrived to blow the whistle on The Bakers and Brabender’s sordid role in Pittsburgh hospital wars and the rigged Patients First deal??

  17. Absolutely disgraceful! Acting Governor Brabender needs to be deported back to virginia horse country! Does he need to destroy the GOP in PA to sell a few more of his ads! Who has courage in the GOP to protect its gullible convicted donors?

  18. Oh, come on. Stop uncritically republishing press releases. “It’s clear from this memo that the Corbett-Cawley team believe they have still have a reliable path to victory”? Try:

    It’s clear from this memo that the Corbett-Cawley team wants people to believe they have still have a reliable path to victory.

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