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PA-Gov: Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies Poll: Wolf 49.1 Corbett 42.2

GovernorCorbettAn outlier or a precursor? That’s the critical question to ask about the latest survey of the PA gubernatorial race.

Keystone Report, a conservative leaning website, partnered up with Magellan Strategies BR to poll this year’s contest.

Their latest result shows Democratic nominee Tom Wolf with his smallest lead of the cycle so far, with him leading Gov. Corbett 49.1% to 42.2%.

The GOP nominee has consistently performed much better in these surveys than in comparable polls. For instance, in July they found him down 12 points and in September just nine. Still, they are finding Wolf’s numbers stagnating and Corbett’s slowly growing.

According to Keystone Reports, Corbett’s gains are coming from Republican voters who are finally rallying behind their nominee.

Magellan weighed the results to reflect previous midterm elections which may be the factor behind the difference between this and other polls. Of course, this election will be decided ultimately by turnout and who actually comes out to vote.

As they say, the only poll that matters occurs on Election Day.

The poll was conducted by an automated survey of 1,131 likely voters in PA. Took place on October 13th and 14th and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.

32 Responses

  1. Addendum: I break-up the URL’s because their presence otherwise has caused delayed uploading on this website.

  2. @ DD:

    You have destroyed your credibility on multiple levels, for you have not matched my level of documentation [discounting your wild assertions] with any of your own; for example, you conjure the theory that another judge would have ruled differently when analyzing Guzzardi’s signatures and you fail to rectify your prior claim that I’d written that “ALL” had been OK.

    As I have painstakingly explained, I pulled an all-nighter after the Corbett filing had been ID’ed and, based solely on publicly-available data, had vetted the four challenged counties; of course, some were classified as requiring more analysis [such as husband/wife handwriting-linkage so, therefore, your incorrect claim was disproven contemporaneousy.

    You also claim that even Guzzardi considered his effort unserious when, in actuality, he traveled all over the Commonwealth [and was interviewed by the media] as he explained his rationale; your elitism is evinced when you persist in adopting a dismissive attitude when—even now—people write on PoliticsPA that they plan to vote for him [for whatever reason(s)].

    You also adhere to the claim that “Bob” is a racist, dropping the charge that I’m a racist as well, recalling that you had initially claimed EVERYONE challenging your viewpoint was a “racist”; this cannot be viewed merely as a gratuitous bow to “present-company-excluded”-thinking, because you still haven’t quoted anything he wrote as justifying his being subject to your [dog-whistle] racism claim.

    Another classic approach you adopted was to claim that you don’t want to defend AG-Holder because the relevant page is no longer on the PoliticsPA front-page; to the contrary, once you click on the “Governor” entries, you will find it still appears on the front-page and, therefore, this effort to procrastinate [classically Obama-esque] fails.

    Presumably, the Magellan analysis took into account your newly-introduced criterion related to the potential for Stack to drive Philly turnout [as if anything were needed in addition to what can be anticipated]; thus, you have failed to dispute my claim that it represents a legitimate dataset.

    I do not dispute my “right-wing conservative” leanings, just as you undoubtedly would accept the appellation of being a “left-wing liberal”; nevertheless, there is no doubt that BHO/Wolf share comparable socialist stances [starting with avid support for public unions, ending with fervent desire to destroy fracking], and you can’t invoke entities that call themselves “socialist” because, these days, those organizations are thinly-veiled “communist” entities.

    THEREFORE, you can choose either to conjure a rejoinder [documented with specificity] to this reformulation of your entry, or you can [perhaps wisely] choose to “stop digging” and acknowledge that you cannot support your assertions!

  3. Robert-
    I’m not wasting time on a dead thread/topic that’s not on page 1 of PoliticsPA. PLEASE learn how to properly post a link and stop breaking it up with Htt on one line. Just post the damn URL without the h t t p and the slashes. Just use the www and the rest. PoliticsPA adds on the rest to make a working link that people can click on.

    Bob did not have sufficient petitions to get on the ballot, only sufficient number to fool a misguided judge. Had you gotten any other judge you would have lost at that stage.

    “Guzzardi was documented to have been a “serious” candidate, articulating myriad viewpoints that were more conservative and fiscally-tight than Corbett had been pursuing”

    documented? serious? Not in this universe. I’ll give you that his viewpoints were more “conservative”, and by that I also mean more irresponsible and failing to address the basic needs of a functioning government. But, no one took his candidacy as serious, and he didn’t appear to either.

    Yes, Magellen skewed the data by using Dem/Republican turnout ratios from 2010. That race was completely different as there was an open seat for Gov and a Senate race, and no candidate from Philadelphia. Also, it wouldn’t take into account any new voters from 2012. This year, there is a VERY unpopular incumbent Gov. There is no Senate race. And Mike Stack on the ticket will elevate Philly turnout. So, 2010 is a poor model for Magellan to use (or in this case: misuse).

    As for Wolf/Obama, there aren’t any “socialist” policies. Go talk to actual members of the Socialist party and you will learn that they don’t find Obama’s policies to be Socialist at all.

    Robert, I understand that being a right-wing conservative requires to you fail to recognize/acknowledge thinly veiled racism, by people like Bob, and pretend it’s legitimate criticism. I can’t explain it to you any more than I can explain color to a blind man. It’s just beyond your comprehension.

  4. Corbitt didn’t make any education cuts, there was a 2 year stimulus education grants for 2010 and 2011 to help states get through the tough recession. State contribution was lowered but supplemented by federal funds. Once those funds dried up, they increased state contribution. The problem is, there was an increase into the teachers pention funding, so while more money is funding teachers retirment, less money makes it to the classroom. Even though, overall, more state money was being spent on education. However, PA ranks 13th in the nation on per pupil funding at around $13k per student. I read this on politifact, which if anything is left leaning because of their parent newspaper. Personally i think the ads put out by Wolf for $1 billion in spending “cuts” is deceiving when the governor increased state spending on education. Teachers should be happy he’s at least trying to keep up with their pention funding, many states lawmakers are cooking their books by underfunding pentions to government employees. This will be a disaster for many government workers in years to come.

  5. guevenor corbit aint never hate nobody, cuz he a good man who aint got hate in his bones, plus he got a black sonin law so he aint able to hate nobody,

  6. I wonder how much anti conservative, anti Republican hate is really just racism and bigotry.

  7. I often wonder (not so much on this site) all the hate for Obama and Kane, what percentage is bigotry?

  8. @ DD:

    First, it’s great to note that you’re alive, for you have been too evasive, for far too long.

    Second, please reply at the other website for documentation of assertions condemning AH-Holder related specifically to Fast & Furious and the James Rosen Affidavit.


    Third, you have failed to ID any evidence that either “Bob” or myself demonstrated a racist motivation for attacking AG-Holder; therefore, please rescind the charge [that is oh-so-typical of Dems such as yourself].

    Fourth, you cannot claim [for it ain’t so] that I’d claimed all of Guzzardi’s petitions were 100% squeaky clean [“You thought ALL of them were good based on your ‘vetting’.”]; my claim [then and now] was that a sufficient number in each of the four challenged counties were OK and, thus, Guzzardi had exceeded that threshold. Thus, your conclusion [“So that shows that you don’t know your ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to petitions”] should actually be perceived as self-referential.

    Fifth, Guzzardi was documented to have been a “serious” candidate, articulating myriad viewpoints that were more conservative and fiscally-tight than Corbett had been pursuing; this was documented seriatim, so you cannot “seriously” reject his credibility, despite the tendency of elitists to be dismissive.

    Sixth, you claim Magellan “skewed” the data, whereas it claims the outcome is more reflective of what will transpire in a fortnight; thus, it is justifiable to claim that its interpretation thereof could reflect a “trend,” particularly when one recalls the initial splay was greater than 20%.

    Seventh, what you missed when attacking Bob [“A vote for Wolf is a vote for Obama”] by claiming he doesn’t “seem to understand the difference between state and federal elections,” is the fact that socialist policies overlap between Wolf/BHO.

    Eighth, therefore, you continue to “combine willful-ignorance and moral-equivalency to cover-up your excess,” now both on the prior page and this one.

  9. davis daino you gonna be reely bummed out in a coupla wks, when govnenor corbitt wins ina land slide cuz that what he gonna do when the elcton happens on electn day so you bettar get use to it,

  10. Bob- You don’t seem to understand the difference between state and federal elections, and the lawlessness we’ve experienced under Corbett. It will be refreshing to have Governor who doesn’t take up so much of the A.G.’s time with unconstitutional behavior.

    Wolf’s in. Corbett’s out. Get used to it.

  11. A vote for Wolf is a vote for Obama. A Wolf administration, teamed up with Kathleen Kane, will be virtually lawless. Sorry, I’m not voting for a stinky old Leftist.

  12. Robert- That you choose to willfully ignore that the attacks on Holder are racist is your problem. Why you keep bringing up on unrelated threads is beyond me.

    The petitions were flawed, but you lucked out with a judge who mistakenly allowed some flawed signatures to count. You thought ALL of them were good based on your “vetting”. So that shows that you don’t know your ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to petitions, and just got lucky with a lenient judge. But, more importantly, Guzzardi was always a joke of a candidate that no one with any intelligence took seriously. (Feel free to say you took him seriously and help make my point by not realizing you are helping make my point.)

    This poll doesn’t actually show the race “narrowing” since Magellan applied a different model from other pollsters to skew the results.

    Just get used to saying: Governor Wolf

  13. The fact that Governor Corbett has not suspended his campaign to deal with the Ebola epidemic is one of the reasons why he is seen as a failed Governor. PAINDY1 is right about the crony corruption pervading government. Just as President Obama appointed a lobbyist to be Ebola Czar, Governor Corbett appointed a lobbyist to head Pa. health affairs. It is about the contracts not the health of the people. If only Bob Guzzardi had won, the public might have heard a campaign about the real issue: the crony political class and theft from the taxpayers.

  14. @ Robbie [ADDENDUM]

    Inasmuch as DD has consciously demurred rather than attempting to defend his assertions [having subsequently blogged without returning to this prior page], perhaps you might wish to try to shore-up his credibility [in this instance, defending AG-Holder].


  15. @ Robbie [PART III]

    I’ll close by addressing your ad-hominem attack [“would you compare one patient’s records with another patient’s records when diagnosing or trying to assess a change in medical condition? Of course not (if you did, no medical liability insurance carrier would insure you).”]

    You are incorrect, for the whole concept of basing clinical decision-making on the data culled into articles published in the professional literature [“evidence-based medicine”] underlies the optimal approach to patient-care.


    Finally, you raised the issue of whether political comebacks can transpire, and I would point to last year’s gubernatorial race in Virginia, which was “thisclose” @ the end, with many pundits feeling Cuccinelli would have won had the election be held a week later.

    I know you’d probably react with a “cudda/shudda” level of scorn [particularly when it is recalled that his national-$ had been cut], but this illustrates why “it ain’t over ’til it’s over!”

    I am not wont to “talk the talk” without “walking the talk” and, thus, I have manifest my angst about BHO [and his Dem-apologists] rather than merely lamenting what’s aired on cable-news.

    Would you care to defend what’s happening on the national/international stage, c/o this Alinskyite?


  16. @ Robbie [PART II]

    “Magellan said that over the course of the three polls it has conducted for the Keystone Report, Mr. Corbett’s showing has improved somewhat as he has begun to consolidate his GOP base. In July, he had the support of 64 percent of GOP voters. In the latest findings, he had 73 percent among Republicans. The statement also said that the proportion of voters with a negative view of first-time candidate Wolf had also crept up.

    “The pollster said the biggest difference between its finding and those of most other recent public surveys is that the weighting of its results assumes a lower relative turnout among Democrats compared with Republicans, an assumption that Magellan said better reflects the pattern of recent non-presidential voting years in Pennsylvania.”


    These analytic-points are c/w those I’ve articulated; I’ve also argued that Corbett should tie Wolf to BHO [as is occurring nationally], an effort that could yield enhanced GOP-turnout.

    Of COURSE I’m rooting for Corbett, if for no other reason than AG-Kane flubbed her Sandusky-attack and he’s $-responsible; I’ve been a GOP-Committeeman [for two decades-plus!] and feel BHO has methodically been destroying America.

    If you choose, you may wish to react to this prognostication [plus the flipping-Senate], based primarily upon multiple-readings and chats with political-leaders.

    [to be continued]

  17. @ Robbie: PART I

    WOW. All I did was to leave the Internet to attend a lecture on the Middle East @ a MENSA meeting and then go out to dinner/movie [“The Judge”]…and this entry materializes….

    First of all, my prediction was merely that the race would narrow, and it has.

    Second, my concerns regarding Corbett’s re-electability [expressed herein during the past two years, based primarily on Sandusky] prompted me to nudge for Cawley to displace him [as I said to him, and to others, repeatedly].

    Third, in conjunction with that viewpoint, I told everyone my view [starting in December, including to Guzzardi] that his potential candidacy could potentially spark discussion [@ the PA Society meeting] along the lines I’d articulated.

    Fourth, when that failed to materialize, I helped him get onto the ballot and, despite attacks by DD, I correctly vetted his signatures.

    Fifth, I concurred with Commonwealth Court but suspect the Supremes may have harbored problematic motivations when overturning, inasmuch as 1]–The signatures were validated [100+ in at least 2/4 challenged counties, although all 4 were ultimately OK]; and 2]–Guzzardi had filed his fisc-report with the DoS and it immediately was available to the world [via the Internet], so the law was outmoded (behaviorally superseded) because its intent had been satisfied (and he was not told to file anything anywhere else when his filing was accepted by the DoS).

    Therefore, thus-far, I have provided sufficient clarification to undermine your historical revisionism.

    [to be continued]

  18. yeah whats the matter with you robbie? You go back and read chris’s posts. Wake up to the reality that is PAPOLITICS man!

  19. robie you is wrong cuz goevenor cor is gonna win in land slide and that what dah poles are saying all the time, he bean goevenur for 4 yrs and he gonna be staying gove. for anuther 4 yrs cuz that the way it work in penna where guvs. can bee guv. for 8 yrs,

  20. Sklaroff,
    Stick to medicine, because you clearly know nothing about politics.

    You support no winners. You backed Guzzardi for Governor against Corbett, and Guzzardi didn’t even make the ballot. On that, you thought he would make the ballot. Wrong. It shows Guzzardi is a terrible lawyer who doesn’t know how to follow simple directions in law. It shows you know nothing about the law or politics, even though it doesn’t stop you from pretending you know everything.

    You claim to be a doctor, but would you compare one patient’s records with another patient’s records when diagnosing or trying to assess a change in medical condition? Of course not (if you did, no medical liability insurance carrier would insure you). That is what you are doing with polls. You can’t compare Magellan Strategies poll with a Quinnipiac poll, or a Franklin and Marshall poll, or even a YouGov/CBS/NY Times poll. Different polling organizations have different methodologies, conduct the surveys differently, ask different questions, and present in a different order.

    By the way, Magellan Strategies has only conservative organizations (including Keystone Report) for clients, including Americans for Prosperity (the Koch brothers’ 501(c)(4)). That is hardly an unbiased poll. That is cheerleading, not objective analysis. What makes anybody think their polls have value? Nobody thinks that except those who want to believe the results.

    You like to talk about trends, so let’s look at them. The margin in the YouGov/CBS/NY Times polls has not changed at all since its survey began in June/July. Whether or not you believe the numbers (and no pollster, Republican, Democrat or Independent, uses that methodology or thinks it is viable except them), there has been a margin change of exactly 0% in 3-4 months. That trend is what we call stagnation.

    The Magellan polls have moved only within the margin of error. We who are professionals and have conducted polls before will tell you that is not a trend. That is just movement within the margin of error. Even the most pro-Corbett poll (Magellan) and the poll using an outlier methodology (YouGov/CBS/NY Times) show no trend except a big loss for Corbett. Every other poll has the lead at a large double digit margin.

    Nobody thinks it is winnable for Corbett (except Corbett dreaming he can keep his job). If anybody who mattered did think that, the conservative groups and those who matter would be pouring huge resources into the race (that happened in 2012, and the Democrats still had a clean sweep of all 5 statewide elections – they have stayed out this year).

    Please tell us one example of a candidate who has come back to win an election in a big state or city when he was trailing in every poll by a margin this large with barely 2 weeks left (by the way, Obama and Rendell are still more popular than Corbett in every poll). Also, despite what the Corbett sycophants like Charlie Gerow like to say, Corbett never trailed in any public poll for Governor 2010, Attorney General 2008, or Attorney General 2004 (his only 3 other campaigns) – he was the favorite in every race, start to finish.

    Sklaroff, I hope for the sake of your patients that you are much better as a doctor than you are as a lawyer or political pundit. I don’t try to practice medicine just because I have read articles on health an medicine and spoken with many doctors. Accept your limits and stop acting like you know a lot about the law and politics just because you read Politics PA, a few other blogs and believe things must to be the way you believe.

    On November 4, you will be wrong again when Corbett loses by double digits.

  21. The race is not tightening at all. These folks factor in tendencies of past mid-terms – like the Tea Party wave of 2010 – which is dissipating. Their results essentially mirror their last 3 surveys.

    What they do not factor in is: now we have 4 years of Corbett.

    The BIG LIE in education funding is owned by millionaire Governor Corbett. For his 2011 budget, $565 million was the expired stimulus funds. $355 million was in deliberate and willful cuts to education. He could have replaced all of it with the billion dollar surplus from Rendell’s 2010 budget.

    27,000 teachers, plus administrators and school nurses have lost their jobs since 2011. Instead, Corbett opted to fund his billion dollar capital stock and franchise tax breaks – of which he is so proud.

    These business tax breaks returned nothing to the taxpayers of Pennsylvania. PA’s employment rate has always been below the national average. In 2011 – PA was farther below. PA dropped from 7th to 49th in job creation under millionaire Governor Corbett’s watch.

    Another BIG LIE owned by millionaire Governor Corbett is about the $4.2 billion deficit he inherited. That was the worst-case scenario predicted by Governor Rendell for the aftermath of the stimulus. But it obviously never happened. Obvious that is, if you look at state budget records.

    On 16 September, 2014, the PA general fund hemorrhaged $700 million, barely 2 1/2 months into Corbett’s 2014 “balanced” budget. Moody’s and S&P tanked the state’s credit rating.
    Lacking positive achievement and populist cause – millionaire Governor Corbett has blown over $16 million on non-partisan discredited attack ads over the last 7 months – which were justifiably ignored by voters.

    Republicans must really think we are stupid. Here are a plethora of Corbett lies in his attack ads, his photo-shop fake campaign pics – and documentation of his steady climb to the heights of disdain.


  22. make all the excuses u want and all the analogies and discount the retard Hector Sandusky Marteenez


    4 years and a Republican majority in the House and Senate and NO Record to run is pitiful and we will see a Wolfe victory on Election Day

  23. Perhaps the Corbett care rollout was a great success for the lobbyists and consultants who pocketed millions but not so much for the taxpayer. Like me, the consultants dream of “living off the fatta the lan.” I am happy stroking a rabbit.

  24. PAINDY1 has correctly identified the fact that the chief health official in the state is a former lobbyist whose expertise is in getting contracts, tax breaks and preferential treatment for his corporation. No wonder the Corbett care roll out was such a mess. It is just like the lobbyist Obama named to be his Ebola Czar … no experience in medicine but plenty of experience steering goodies to buddies. And, as an aside, I would like to congratulate PAINDY1 for his Pulitzer Prize nomination in identifying the Tomalis infection of the education system in this state.

  25. the trooth is goevenor corbit is on his way to win again in a land slide and he gonna stay goevenor for at leest 5 more yrs, for shore,

  26. Their last poll was Wolf 49, Corbett 40. This one is 49-42. Not much of a difference, if any difference at all, given that the margin of error is 2.9%

    In other words——the race is stagnant. Like it has been for months.

  27. As anticipated, the race is tightening; people are, perhaps, beginning to recognize [1]–Wolf’s evasiveness, [2]–Wolf’s plan to hike taxes dramatically, and [3]–Wolf’s resemblance (policy-wise) to Obama.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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