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PA-Gov: Magellan Strategies Poll: Wolf 49.6 Corbett 43.3

Wolf CorbettAnother day, another poll.

This time, however, Governor Corbett finds himself in striking distance of his Democratic opponent.

According to a new Magellan Strategies Poll, Tom Wolf still leads with 49.6%, but Tom Corbett stands at 43.3%.

These results are similar to the Magellan survey with Keystone Report two weeks ago, although Gov. Corbett’s deficit narrowed from 6.9% to 5.7%.

The bad news for the incumbent, though, is that his favorability numbers are still under water. Just 40.5% of respondents have a favorable opinion of Corbett while 49.5% have an unfavorable opinion.

While those are the best numbers the Republican has received since Magellan starting polling the race in July, Wolf still enjoys a net positive rating. 45.1% have a favorable view of the Democratic nominee while 40.5% have an unfavorable view.

One caveat to note, though, is that Gov. Tom Corbett has performed better in Magellan Strategies Polls this year than with any other polling organization. Therefore, it is difficult to tell whether this is an outlier or the GOP nominee is picking up some real momentum.

We’ll have to wait until Tuesday night to find out.

The poll was conducted on October 27th and 28th and surveyed 1,433 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.6%.

15 Responses

  1. bungy-
    The “R” wave is the Remove/Retire Corbett wave or the R’s waving goodbye to the Governor’s mansion for a long time.

  2. bungy:

    Have you ever worked on the senior level of a campaign before? Clearly you haven’t. If every poll shows the candidate losing by double digits (Magellan is not a real poll, it is just very conservative cheerleading), the candidate will “leak” the toplines of an internal poll to counteract that consistent narrative he is getting crushed. But in this case, Corbett hasn’t leaked the toplines that show the race competitive and refuses to identify the pollster. If Corbett had a poll showing it closer, he would show it to counteract conventional wisdom.

    You have no idea what you are talking about. You claim internal polls show Corbett losing by 2% “and moving”. Your claim is based on Corbett’s campaign press secretary saying internal polls had him trailing by 3-5%. But as I said, neither you nor Tom Corbett will show the internal polls or even identify the pollster. Why is that? Because an internal poll showing Corbett trailing by 3-5%, much less 2% “and moving”, doesn’t exist. If you are willing to say it, you should be willing to prove it.

    Nobody believes Corbett will win, not even Corbett staffers (they have been trying to position themselves to stay on with Wolf for weeks). Don’t worry, everybody will be laughing at you and the Corbett campaign on Wednesday.

  3. This will end up a 6-8 point Wolf win. I feel Wolf has been allowed to be pegged as someone who will raise everyone’s taxes. He didn’t explain his tax plan well.

  4. Look at Wolf’s final margin of victory in the primary vs. what the polls were showing right before the election. Everyone expected Wolf to win but nobody thought it was going to be the blowout it ended up being. He got 57% of the vote with 3 other candidates on the ballot. He only has to beat one fool this time.

  5. The only way Corbett can win is if women go to the voting booths on election day and “just close their eyes.”

  6. Agreed – the best thing about this is how it will motivate Dem voters – who are not worried about the Gov race – to come out and support all the down-ballot candidates. Good news for all the tossup house and state senate races.

  7. Whey even post this garbage from a firm that once boasted the tagline “Magellan Strategies: Helping Republicans Win Elections”? This is propaganda, not polling.

  8. It’s an outlier (or out-and-out-liar) poll. The 6.3% margin in this poll is about half of the what the final margin would be.

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    Total Voters: 231

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