PA-Gov: Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll Wolf 37, Schwartz 14, McCord 9, McGinty 5

Tom-WolfOver the last two weeks, little has changed.

That’s the conclusion of the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll, which shows former Department of Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf with a solid 23 point lead heading into the final weekend of the primary.

37% of respondents plan on voting for Wolf, while Rep. Allyson Schwartz places second with 14%, State Treasurer Rob McCord stands in third with 9% and former DEP Secretary Katie McGinty finishes with 5%. 32% are not sure.

The results of the last poll the organization released on May 1 are barely different. Compared to the beginning of the month, Wolf has dropped one point, Schwartz has gained one point, McCord is two points down and McGinty is three points up. All these changes are within the poll’s margin of error.

Additionally, when those who are unsure are asked if they are leaning towards one particular candidate, Wolf’s lead increases. With “leaners” included, Wolf holds a 41-16 lead. McCord and McGinty stand at 11 and 7 percent respectively.

Nor has negative campaigning brought down the front-runner. Wolf’s favorability rating fell only 2% and still stands at a very healthy 70%. Schwartz’s favorability also stayed largely the same going from 49% to 47%.

McCord, however, did suffer a setback among his personal ratings. This may very well be the result of the negative campaigning he has turned to, which prompted a scolding from Pennsylvania’s last Democratic Governor, Ed Rendell. McCord’s favorability dropped six points from 43 to 37 percent.

Meanwhile Katie McGinty, who has eschewed negative campaigning, saw her favorability ratings go up seven points to 35%.

The most important issue by far to Democratic voters is education. 30% cite it as their major concern compared to 15% who say the economy and jobs.

Of course, the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but Tom Wolf has to feel pretty good about where he stands just four days out.

This survey included 414 likely Democratic voters. It consisted of live telephone interviews and took place from May 13th to 15th. The margin of error is plus or minus 5%.

20 Responses

  1. SoCePol… You miss the entire point… McCord’s ads were the truth. You can call them poor judgement. But you can not deny their validity. This further validates Rob’s character in that he is not afraid to state the truth even if it is unpopular. Hilarious that Rendell came down on McCord for the ads. Rendell was the master at negative campaigning. Like I said, Rendell felt compelled to come out against McCord given all the money Wolf had given him for past campaigns.

    I personally would like to see McCord enter the race as an independent if he does not secure the democratic nomination. He will certainly get a sizable amount of democrats voting for him. He is also liked by many republicans. He could certainly put up a good race in a three-way contest and would have a good chance to win.

  2. RJD,

    McCord’s poor judgement in using racial attacks was the equivalent of when Republicans used the same guilt-by-association style attack regarding Obama and Jeremiah Wright. Utterly ridiculous. (By the way, it didn’t work that time either.)

    McCord ran a terrible campaign, but worse, McCord revealed his flawed character and lack of integrity.

  3. The circular firing squad the DEMs produced gave Corbett ammo…and right now, the smarmy one is trying to claim credit for lowering unemployement…no credit goes to Barack…who took all the blame…when it was Bush who dumped the economy…while saying Big Gov is the problem, which by the way, saved Big Business…who couldn’t shoot straight.
    Does anyone realize how insane the national dialogue is ( what dialogue)?

    I do believe McCord blundered badly and committed a botched self-colonoscopy…the dirt was on him.

    McGinty’s message was some of most milk toast I have ever seen. The only campaign run well was Wolf’s. Its like you spot CA CHROME a 1/2 track lead–my gawd, who does that?

    DEMs need to come together quick, you can see the slush Corbett is already throwing…the man is more desperate than McCord, that’s tre-desperado-ish.
    Tom

  4. When will they quit printing these worthless polls. F&M and Muhlenberg both use extremely outdated techniques that produce exceedingly large groups of undecideds. The results will be:

    Wolf—–60%
    Schwartz—18%
    McCord—15%
    McGinty—7%

    See which result is closer tomorrow evening

  5. Vote McCord on election day. Ed Rendell spoke out against McCord because McCord would not play politics when Rendell was in office and McCord was treasurer. Rendell thought just because McCord was a democrat that McCord would do what was in Rendell’s interest. Instead, McCord chose to do what was in the best interest of the citizens of Pennsylvania. As well, Rendell spoke out against McCord because of all the money Wolf has given Rendell in his runs for office. If you want politics as usually, vote Wolf or Schwartz. If you want someone who will make a change for the better, then McCord is the only option. Vote McCord on election day.

    Vote for McCord is you want a progressive and someone who knows how to lead. Wolf has demonstrated he does not know how to lead, nor does he have it in him to stand up to confront important issues (i.e. racism). McCord is the only candidate who can beat Corbett and the only candidate who can help Pennsylvania prosper.

  6. Vote McCord on election day. His experience and vision makes him the best candidate to beat Corbett and for our state.

  7. It is fascinating to watch certain democrats continue to tear down McCord. All he did was play by the democrat race rules established ages ago. If he did the same exact thing against a Republican, he would be considered a hero.

  8. Dear Pennsylvanian Dog Lovers: My Master, Tom Corbett, is a really good human. He doesn’t threaten to put me down even when I steal his slippers. My loving owner tells me that the Castle Doctrine cannot be invoked on shooting dogs who defecate on their neighbors property. Please make a generous donation to My Master Tom Corbett. I don’t want to go to South Carolina. I love the Keystone State and this Mansion. Save my Master from being put down. The Corbett Dog. If you don’t contribute at least $1000.000 now to the Corbett/Brabender campaign, I might be put down. The guy watching me in the Black Armani suit, makes me more nervous than a bad thunderstorm.
    http://www.keystonepolitics.com/2014/05/susan-corbetts-six-page-hand-written-plea-money/

  9. McCord chose to use racial opportunism in his campaign, and it backfired.

    Let’s hope the general election between Wolf and Corbett is free of such baloney and on the darn issues.

  10. Bandwagon and inevitable victory appeals are standard and effective propaganda techniques which exploit the natural tendency of humans to follow the herd. The propaganda works to reinforce the prejudice of the already persuaded to stay with their choice as well as to stampede the undecided into joining a sure thing.

  11. I hope the undecideds will vote McGinty. She can’t win against Wolf’s overwhelming numbers, but we can send the strongest possible message against negative campaigning by voting for her. That’s a message Corbett needs to hear, too, since he’s already tearing down Wolf.

  12. Agree with twowinners comments. Katie McGinty did well to stay above the fray and position herself for a future run for Gov, US Senate or Congress. Very nicely done Katie and thank you for not resorting to McCord/Schwartz firebomb tactics

  13. So glad to see the only thing McCords dispicable ads did was tarnish his own reputation and destroy any future he had in the party. Awful decision by McCord who could have conceivably run for a future federal office in the state, but not anymore. Funny how Tom Wolf was only “a racist” when he ran against McCord, but not when McCord was taking over $20,000 in campaign donations from him. Good riddance Robbie!!

  14. Here is how good it is for Wolf and how impossible for the other candidates:

    I think we can all agree that each candidate will get some of the 32% undecided. But, let’s take an extreme example where McCord and McGinty get none of those votes.
    The sum of 37+14+9+5 = 65, so let’s pretend there are 35% undecided.

    In order for Schwartz to beat Wolf, she would need 29 of the 35% (14+29 = 45) and Wolf would have to get on 6 of the 35% (37+6 = 43%)
    7/35 vs 28/35 is the break-even point.

    So, does ANYBODY think McCord and McGinty will get none of the undecided? Does ANYBODY think Schwartz will get 28/35=4/5=80% of the undecided vote?

    It’s over for Schwartz, McCord. They should work on concession speeches to heal the party after their attacks on Wolf.

    If asked why they are supporting Wolf in light of the attacks, just admit the attacks were lying bullsh*t from desperate candidates.

  15. There are actually two winners in this: Tom Wolf and Katie McGinty. Her approval ratings are great, her name recognition is up, and she’s stayed above all the drama. Look for her to make a move in two years.

  16. All that money McCord spent (his and other people’s), the reputation he tried to ruin, and for what? He lost a ton of good will, lost a friend and major contributor in Tom Wolf, and essentially ended his own political career. All to finish in single digits? Hope it was worth it.

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