PA-Gov: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Poll: Wolf 51 Corbett 39

Corbett Wolf DebateWe’ve reached a major milestone politicos. This may be the final poll of the election season (big emphasis on the may).

The latest poll, a collaboration between Muhlenberg College and the Morning Call, finds Democratic nominee Tom Wolf with 51% and Republican Gov. Tom Corbett with 39%.

This latest survey is in line with the 13 point differences in the latest YouGov and F&M polls as well as the 10 point margin in the last Harper poll.

The twelve point gap in this poll, though, is a significant improvement for the incumbent, as Wolf led by twenty-one points in their September poll.

The Morning Call sees this change as a consequence of Republicans coming back home to Gov. Corbett and a greater focus among voters on taxes.

“We are seeing better Republican numbers and we are seeing traction on tax issues,” said Muhlenberg College pollster and political science professor Chris Borick.

32% of respondents said that taxes were the most important issue to them, with 23% saying education. This is a reversal from last month, when education finished first with 33% and taxes came in second with 18%.

“That’s one of the cool findings of the survey,” Borick said. “Right now the plurality of voters says taxes. And that’s good news for Gov. Corbett. The more he makes it about taxes, the better it is for his campaign.”

Obviously, the Governor’s negative ads have been working as Wolf’s favorables took a big hit. He went from a 51-25 favorable/unfavorable split in September to a 46-36 split in October.

Still, Corbett has just a 31% favorability rating with 53% having an unfavorable opinion of him. The Governor also has a very low 34% approval rating and over half, 52%, of respondents disapprove of his tenure.

The proof that Corbett’s tax message is working can be found in the crosstabs. Among voters who feel taxes are the most important issue, the Gov holds a 51-36 advantage. Wolf, though, holds a wide lead, 77-14, among voters who believe education is the most important issue.

Demographically, Wolf is ahead 52% to 35% among women and has a smaller edge among men, 49% to 43%.

As you would expect, Democrats favor Wolf (77%-15%) and Republicans favor Corbett (65%-21%). The Democrat, though, holds the lead among the all-important independents by a 57% to 33% margin.

This poll was conducted using live telephone interviews, it surveyed 409 likely voters and took place from October 27th to 29th. The margin of error is plus or minus 5%.

October 31st, 2014 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Governor, Top Stories | 3 Comments

3 thoughts on “PA-Gov: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Poll: Wolf 51 Corbett 39”

  1. Diano you shill says:

    David Diano, taxes aren’t an issue? Riiight. That’s why Republicans are going to have 30 state senators next year, and expand their state house majority to boot, and why they are going to retake the U.S. Senate and have their largest U.S. House Majority in 80 years.
    Corbett is going to lose, but it isn’t because taxes aren’t an issue. Corbett RAISED taxes. Thrice.

  2. Basile says:

    “The twelve point gap in this poll, though, is a significant improvement for the incumbent, as Wolf led by twenty-one points in their September poll.”-PPA

    Funny I feel this will get more Democrats out to vote.

  3. David Diano says:

    “The more he makes it about taxes, the better it is for his campaign.”

    Not really for the people who saw their property and school taxes go up. They rightly blame Corbett. The Republicans still like trotting out the tax boogeyman, but it’s a tired mantra that won’t win them this election.

    I wonder if half the GOP legislators will even vote for him.

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