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PA-Gov: Rothenberg Changes Race Rating to “Democrat Favored”

Tom-Corbett-upsetThe Rothenberg Political Report changed its rating of the PA governor’s race from “Lean Democrat” to “Democrat Favored” on Friday, suggesting that the site has even more reason to believe than it did last month that Democrat Tom Wolf will unseat incumbent Gov. Tom Corbett in November.

The Rothenberg Political Report had been rating PA as “Lean Democrat” since well before the primary, but showed enough additional confidence in the Wolf campaign (or lessened confidence in the Corbett campaign) to make the change. Of the 36 governorships up for grabs in 2014, Pennsylvania is the only one currently favored to switch parties.

After being called the most vulnerable governor in the country by the Washington Post for the 13th straight month and nicknamed “Dead Man Walking” by the National Journal in July, this can’t be much of a surprise to the Corbett camp.

Like the Rothenberg Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has not labeled PA as safely Democrat, but claims that the only thing preventing such a rating is the “power of incumbency.”

The Corbett campaign, however, does have a few shreds of hope to hold onto from a recent CBS/NYT poll that put Wolf just nine points ahead of the governor (rather than the 20, 22, or 25 point deficit that other recent polls have found).

27 Responses

  1. @SteveTodd. Pennsylvania’s high income tax payers tend to different than those in New York or California. In PA they tend to be small business owners, where company income flows through a personal return. In NY or California financial service and entertainment types are more prevalent. I do agree with you that those liberal bastards in Hollywood and Silicon Valley should pay more.

  2. serious question: Is doing a favor like this for a campaign/entity worth the hit in reputation that a pollster receives? I mean sure it goes to loyalty for the client but this has to be brutal for new business for these survey companies, no?

  3. @Militant Republican Moderate: Wolf does have to step up his messaging of specifics, granted. But if those specifics are in line with general comments and prevailing attitude, they can only help. We The People – at least the few who bother to vote – know the wealthy have too much and the rest are being squeezed. And we know Corbett will NOT address that basic injustice.

    I go with @David Diano’s rating.

  4. Davis daino you aint got no way of knowing that. guvenore corbit aint outta the race and hes alredy climbing in the poles and he aint gonna loose the race and will win in a land slide.

  5. Peggy-

    What good family did Corbett ruin the name of? I hope you aren’t referring to blood sucking weasels of the Paterno family. Paterno ruined his own name by being a co-conspirator in a cover-up of a pedophile to protect the “reputation/image” of a (VERY lucrative) college football program.

    Corbett’s problem with the case was the snail’s pace in getting Sandusky off the street.

  6. peggy you are so wrong its sad, guveonore corbitt aint done nothing wrong to penstate, it was the kid molester jery sandouchebag who molested kids and gave shame to penn state.

  7. Penn State Alumni will remember on November 4th what Corbett did to Penn State and Joe Paterno. Corbett ruined the reputation of a good family and an excellent college. WE VOTE!

  8. When people find out the numbers on Wolf’s income tax proposal the race will tighten significantly. The rate on income over the “threshold” will put Pennsylvania in a category with New York and California.

  9. I can’t believe how our state has regressed in the past four years…..decline in funding of education (especially higher); less money for inspections re: public health and safety; no attempt to reform tax code (eliminating loop-holes and breaks for big businesses); no attempt to gain tax revenue from oil drillers;….day after day I read of cuts to this or that public service….adult basic, etc

  10. The Magellan headline “Corbett Within Single Digits” could not be more misleading, which leads one to question the very validity of the poll. The “single digit” lead of 7 points is among voters who have already decided on a candidate. The real headline should have been written based on the most significant number in the poll – among likely voters, Wolf leads by 12. Only when your candidate is losing so badly does a friendly pollster have to carefully construct a misleading headline around an irrelevant statistic to your keep donors from bolting the race.

  11. Although I respect Stu Rothenberg’s Political report, his mainstay is congressional races, not governors’ contests. It would appear that he is looking at other information besides the most recent polls showing that Governor Corbett is closing the gap.

  12. Come November, voters will “remember the children”…………

    And the campaign dollars taken by Corbett from friends of The Second Mile.

  13. Even a nine point lead is impressive, as, let’s face it, even 1 % on election day would still win the governor’s mansion for Wolf.

  14. why does anybuddy even care bout this pole anyway. the pole was done by a person injured lawyer Alvin Rothenberg who goes on tv to do his comercials a lot. he don’t know nothng about guvenore corbitt

  15. Scott, if Corbett ‘refuses to put himself above other Pennsylvanians,’ where does that put ex-PA Education Secretary Ron Tomalis? Corbett seems to have placed him quite a bit higher than others in Pennsylvania.

  16. Y’all are so certain that Corbett is doomed that one wonders if it’s even necessary to hold the election; y’all also haven’t taken into account the anti-pension exertions he has been emphasizing, nor have y’all weighed the potential impact of a nationalized [anti-BHO] effort.

  17. This is Rick Santorum ’06 part-two. The state GOP is to blame for not learning from that disaster. They should have recruited an anti-Corbett candidate with credibility. There was one, Bruce Castor, now a Montgomery County Commissioner, who as then DA lost in the primary for AG to Corbett in ’04 but did far better than Corbett in the vote rich SE. But he got frustrated and pulled out. The Republicans in this state no longer try to win. They stick with tired candidates like Santorum and Corbett in the face of overwhelming evidence that they will get crushed. Toomey will be next, and in the blink of an eye, PA will have no GOP statewide elected officials (except a few judges that stand only for retention). Maybe AG Kane has screwed up badly enough to pick off, but I doubt it as memories fade before her re-elect. The GOP has to develop candidates that can win General Elections. Over the last decade of so, they have not.

  18. Corbett alienates his fellow politicians because he is the only one trying to do what is right for PA. There are many issues that Corbett could have brushed off his desk and put the pressure on others to shift blame. This is was every politician does to remain popular…make political moves for themselves rather than for the people they represent. Corbett refuses to do this and risks unpopularity because he refuses to put himself before that of the rest of Pennsylvania. Its time we start recognizes the truth and stop using Corbett as an easy scape goat for our frustrations.

  19. Whatever happened to the online trading of contracts on political propositions, and the resulting “odds”? Through markets like Intrade and the like? Those polling supplements were so money in ’08-’12, but now I can’t find them anywhere. Did Justice crack down on them?

  20. This race has been over for a year. Corbett has managed to alienate just about everyone. The only questions are when donors pull the plug, what the margin is, and will Wolf have coattails.

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