PA-Gov: YouGov Poll: Wolf 50 Corbett 39

Tom-WolfAnother poll shows Democratic nominee Tom Wolf with the lead in the gubernatorial race, although his advantage is smaller than in other polls.

YouGov found 46% of respondents favor Wolf while 35% support Governor Corbett. When those who are leaning towards one candidate or the other are included, though, the margin becomes Wolf 50%-Corbett 39%.

There is little difference between these results and the ones YouGov produced in July.

The gender gap is rather large with Wolf holding a 51-26 advantage among women and Corbett edging out his opponent 43-41 among men.

In the partisan breakdown, Wolf leads Democrats (84% to 4%) and Corbett leads Republicans (69% to 12%) although the former does much better with members of the opposite party. Independents favor the Governor by a narrow 39% to 36% margin.

Liberals (88-3) and moderates (56-20) overwhelmingly favor Wolf while conservatives (69-13) greatly favor Corbett.

Wolf leads nearly all age groups with Gov. Corbett holding onto just a 44% to 42% lead among voters sixty-five and older. The Democrat’s biggest strength is young voters between the ages of 18 and 29, where he holds the 60% to 23% lead.

Finally, Wolf holds a small edge with white voters (43-38) and a large edge with black voters (68-9).

YouGov surveys are a bit difficult to get a handle on. They conduct their surveys online as part of a nationwide effort. They also don’t specify whether they target registered or likely voters. Polls among likely voters are generally more accurate. Yet YouGov’s polls were judged the second most accurate in 2012.

Altogether, in the last few weeks all matter of polls have pegged Wolf’s support at between 49% and 59% while Corbett stands somewhere between 25% and 41%.

If you combine the results of the latest Quinnipiac, RMU, Harper, F&M and YouGov polls Wolf’s average is 53.1% while Corbett averages 32.5%.

This YouGov survey took place from August 18 to September 2 and included 3,560 interviews.

12 Responses

  1. boguzardo, yes their are lots poles showing that guevnor corbitt is gonna win in a land slide and john wolfe aint gonna win against him. plus the way it is in penna is each partie gets to be guv for 8 yrs than the other partie take over,

  2. Observer – You’re right. Political professionals think that opt-in, self-selecting methodology is a joke. There’s no control mechanism to filter age, sex, income, voter registration, ideology, geography or any other demographic characteristic for poll respondents. That’s why no serious pollster (Republican, Democratic, Independent) uses opt-in polling. Even very average pollsters completely reject opt-in polling, since the disproportionate number of respondents have a vested interest or are members of certain demographic groups. It surprises me that New York Times and CBS buy into it. Well, they buy into it for now. When even opt-in polling shows a Republican incumbent losing by 11% (and at least 5 other independent public polls show the margin at more than 20%) with less than 2 months left and the opponent at 50%, you know it’s over.

  3. YouGov’s methodology is suspect, at best. They utilize an e-mail list – I am on it – and hope people will reply. So they have to wait until enough people reply. No other polling organization does it this way – for a reason. You cannot rely on self-selecting poll responders, as any reputable pollster will tell you. The numbers just aren’t valid.

  4. Ron-

    The “snapshot in time” for has been the past two years for “Corbett vs Any_Dem”.

    There’s a reason PA has been consistently at the top of the most-likely to switch list all this time.

  5. This poll was released over a week ago. I’m pretty sure an article was only written about it because some Corbett complained in the comments on the Quinnipiac article

  6. A poll that was conducted from August 18 through Sept 2? I thought they are supposed to be a snapshot in time?

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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