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PA Guv Race Rated “Toss Up”

Tom Corbett portrait loresNational elections handicapped Larry Sabato puts Tom Corbett’s 2014 chances at even money, a potential departure from Pennsylvania’s long-standing practice of re-electing Governors.

The University of Virginia political scientist along with co-authors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley say the Guv’s low poll numbers and serious Democratic opposition make Pa. a state to watch.

Here’s their analysis from the Crystal Ball:

Pennsylvania: A recent Franklin & Marshall College poll summed up Gov. Tom Corbett’s (R) troubles in the Keystone State: With only 26% of voters saying that Corbett is doing an “excellent” or “good” job, “Corbett’s job performance ratings are the lowest for a sitting governor in the [18-year] history” of the poll. Piling on, Quinnipiac recently found that only 49% of Republicans in Pennsylvania thought Corbett deserved to be reelected. Corbett’s troubles may open the door for Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor (R) to take on the incumbent in the GOP primary. As for the Democratic side of the aisle, numerous names have been bandied about but so far the biggest ones have yet to get into the contest. However, it looks like at least one of those major names, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D), will soon announce a run. Other Democratic possibilities include state Treasurer Rob McCord and ex-Reps. Joe Sestak and Kathy Dahlkemper. Interestingly, since the 1940s the two major parties have consistently switched control of the governorship every eight years. While Corbett has major problems, history may be on his side since he was just elected in 2010. But these “rules” of politics get broken sooner or later, and Corbett is sorely testing this rule. TOSS-UP.

Their track record for Pa. is decent. They called the 2010 race a toss-up at this point in that cycle. They rated PA a “solid D” for Ed Rendell’s re-election back in 2006.

29 Responses

  1. “Corbett’s troubles may open the door for Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor (R) to take on the incumbent in the GOP primary”. Mr Castor has pledged his support behind HB/SB76 – elimination of the School Property Tax, abolishing government’s authority to seize your house or business, releasing $13 Billion dollars into Pennsylvania’s economy.

  2. Corbett sold our state to his gas money buddies.
    Corbett closed his eyes on the republican buddies Ories. Highest ranking senate republican and highest justice – when reported to him of their crimes he was to busy going after democrats.
    Corbett looked the other way plus took money from the man that was raping our children.
    Corbett tells women to ” just close your eyes”
    The man belongs in jail not the mansion.

  3. Cambria County Commissioner Legenfelder has now handed over three sweetheart deals to Gleason . Three. Legenfelder is taking a wine junket to Argentina and Gleason is along for ride. Legenfelder has a county office with a bagful of failed political candidates recruited by Gleason . It seems unimaginable that politics does not equal payday and if it is happening there one must ask what contracts counties all through PA have given to the Corbett/Gleason

  4. Dear Mr. Bob Guzzardi: Call off the witch-hunters like Signor Ferrari: Don’t make PAGOP Chair Rob Gleason a sacrificial lamb. He works for Arthur J Gallagher voted one of the most ethical companies in America. This NYSE company would never allow a Rainmaker like Gleason to use his PAGOP warchest to buy insurance contracts or intimidate public officials who are just trying to serve enough years to get a lucrative State Pension. Mr. Guzzardi: don’t weaken the already tarnished PAGOP brand. The PAGOP can’t afford another PAY RAISE Stalinist purge.

  5. Corbett has multiple issues from Sandusky to Gleason but there are other matters that start to show a trend of political priorities trumping the law when he was AG.

  6. Toss up…really!?! The only way Corbett wins this election is if PA GOP Chairman Rob Gleason raises enough campaign money through this shady Argentinian wine deal in Cambria to buy the airwaves. Hopefully, Kane gets to the bottom of the smell coming from the PAGOP before its too late but either way Corbett is in trouble.

  7. A race to watch. The Republican primary for Superior Court. I have just heard of Rob Wyda who is a Vet and is, completely, independent of the Republican Establishment Insider network.

    Vic Stabile is the quintessential Establishment Hack from Cumberland County, home of loser Dave Freed who got 92, 000 fewer votes than much underfunded and near unknown Diana Irey Vaughan.

    If the grassroots defeats Stabile, then it portends not good things for uber hack Tom Corbett.

    Let us see how this under the radar primary drama plays out.

    I know only what I read on his Facebook page

  8. Back in the day, Rob Gleason insured Jack Murtha’s properties in Johnstown. Rob Gleason profiting from politics, say it ain’t so.

  9. ennsylvania Governor is vulnerable to a Primary Challenge by a real Republican. Not only are the Governor’s sinking with no reason to think there will be an uptick, but now David L. Cohen (Ed Rendell) Comcast Billionaire Democrats are all but trying to “buy” the election for him.

    If nominal Republican Tom Corbett is the Republican nominee, then voters will have to choose which Democrat to vote for in the General. Democrat Corbett or Democrat to be named. Not good for rank and file Republican voters who want to vote Republican.

  10. Please stop with these snarky comments about Rob Gleason. Enough with the calls for more Stalinist show trials. I am sure that Rob Gleason would never have intimidated public officials, corporate officials or officials of non-profits to sell his insurance. This is utter nonsense. I am becoming increasingly afraid that Corbett might give up our fine Chair Gleason to prove how bi-partisan justice is in PA and to re-launch his sagging chances for Governor. HELL NO-WE WON’T LET GLEASON GO! Can anyone tell me how to open a legal defense fund in PA?

  11. Can’t believe not a single mention of Jack Wagner. When he announces later this spring the fundamentals of the race will change tremendously.

  12. Can’t believe no mention of Jack Wagner, when he announces in April the fundamentals of the race will change tremendously!

  13. 1987 was a very bad year for the PAGOP. Its Chair Asher was convicted in a case involving a $4.0 million no-bid contract with a firm owned by the son of the 1979 indicted Cambria Chair John Tarquato. Current PAGOP Chair Rob Gleason seemingly is now using his position as PAGOP kingmaker to get no-bid contracts in Cambria County for his new employer, Arthur J Gallagher. PRIMAL SCREAM, I feel your pain! Is the PAGOP capable of learning anything from its own history? Republicans, your house is not clean. Be prepared for a Democratic coming to the Governor’s mansion in 2014.

  14. PAGOP Primal Scream: Here is a multiple choice question just for you: 1. How much will Rob Gleason and his Cambria Teaparty Delegation make for exploiting Gleason’s poltical ties to Corbertt and PLCB Chair Brion: thousand, millions, don’t know? 2. Does Arthur J Gallagher (NYSE), named one of the world’s most ethical companies, care about how PAGOP Chair Rob Gleason obtains no-bid governmental insurance contracts: Yes absolutely; They care about their earnings-Cambria and Harrisburg will always be corrupt; Gleason only cares about his bottom line and he is a protected Knight of the Corbett Roundtable. 3.What was the Gleason junket to Argentina? a greedy attempt at self-enrichment cleverly disguised as an economic development exploration; an elaborate scheme for Doug Legenfelder to go on a tax-deductible vacation of a lifetime with his Political funders Rob Gleason and the McQuaide brothers. As is my custom, I offer this video just for you Primal Scream

  15. The PAGOP tells me if I give them my hard-earned dollars that good principled government will come to PA. Rob Gleason sent me Emails about Romney, Tom Smith, Irey, and Freed. Chairman Gleason needed my dough for his candidates certain victory. At the same time, he was securing no-bid contracts for his NYSE employer Arthur J Gallagher in Cambria. And now we have this poor soul, Cambria County Commissioner Douglas Legenfleder. He is an Air Force Colonel who received a most honorable discharge from serving his nation. Will Douglas Legenfelder receive a honorable discharge from Cambria County Politcs? Isn’t what Gleason is allegedly doing far more hurtful to the PA body politic than anything, that the Orie sisters ever did? It’s wrong, it’s hurtful to the PAGOP brand and it makes me want to SCREAM!!!

  16. Only the uniformed think the Property Tax Independence Act (HB/SB 76) is a terrible idea. It is the ONLY solution to a total disaster.

  17. Ugh…the Property Tax Independence Act is a terrible bill. Luckily, it has no chance of ever passing thanks to bipartisan opposition.

  18. February 7, 2013

    To: Governor Tom Corbett
    225 Main Capitol Building
    Harrisburg, PA 17120

    Re: Property Tax Independence Act

    Governor Corbett,

    I am writing you to express my annoyance with regards to your budget address on February 5, 2013. I am disappointed that not one word was mentioned by you about property taxes specifically the Property Tax Independence Act as sponsored by Senators Argall, Folmer, Yudichak, Schwank and Representative Cox.

    High property taxes burden homeowners who are attempting to maintain their mortgage. Property taxes are not based on an individual’s ability to pay, but yet manage to increase yearly without taking into consideration a homeowner’s financial capacity. The proposal would eliminate all school property taxes across the Commonwealth and would replace the current archaic school funding system with funding from the Personal Income Tax and the Sales and Use Tax. As you are aware a financial analysis of the 2011-2012 version of the Property Tax Independence Act that was released on September 25, 2012, by the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal office indicated that, with minor revenue adjustments, the plan is financially viable. Those adjustments have been made for the 2013-2014 introduction of the legislation and will support the claims.

    The benefits of eliminating the property tax are many and some are as follow; elimination of school property taxes will increases the disposable income of property taxpayers. This would be an explosive economic stimulus for Pennsylvania. Elimination of property taxes will cause home values to increase, on average, by more than 10% statewide. Working age homeowners will realize a tax cut. Retired homeowners realize a significant reduction in taxes. The analysis also finds that the property tax reduction easily offsets any increase from the higher sales tax. Benefits would also accrue to home builders and developers who convert current land holdings into new housing plots, allowing for an increase in the construction sector as well.

    This issue is not a political chess piece that should be played out by party differences; this is truly a bipartisan proposal. This issue should also not be stopped before it is allowed to begin. Pennsylvania homeowners deserve immediate action on property tax reform and deserve to be on the road to true property ownership. Once again consider the economic stimulus Pennsylvania will realize with the elimination of the School Property Tax.

    You have been quoted as saying “Not this year.” with regards to taking the lead on property tax reform. I urge you to reconsider, take the lead and thrust Pennsylvania and her residents into a stimulus recovery not to be matched by any other state. If not, Pennsylvania residents will have to make themselves heard come 2014. No tax should have the power to leave you homeless.

  19. Gov. Corbett needs to direct the house & Senate to move forward on HB76/SB76 Property Tax Indpendence Act and demand to put it on his desk for his signature. If he does this, he will then be around for the next term.

  20. this is News?
    UVA Larry Sabato or any other PA Larry could see this from a mile away. even a blind pig can finds a truffle

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