PA Increasingly Seen As Critical Swing State in November

2012 mapA narrative is starting to form.

The emerging idea is that Pennsylvania and its twenty electoral votes could be the tipping point of the 2016 presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

In a FiveThirtyEight discussion about possible shifts in the electoral college map, PA was described as a state that may be trending red.

“Pennsylvania, on the other hand — the polling has been pretty competitive there, it’s been trending ever-so-slightly red as compared with the national average, and two-thirds of the population there is within the Northeastern sphere of influence, where Trump seems to overperform a bit,” founder Nate Silver wrote.

“The question in Pennsylvania is what happens in the Philadelphia suburbs,” senior political analyst Harry Enten added. “There are a lot of well-educated white voters there, and I do think Trump’s lack of appeal to them could end up killing whatever shot he has in the state because those in the western part of the state trended to the right.”

Obama’s Campaign Strategy

Former Obama Administration speechwriter Jon Favreau and Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer host a weekly podcast for the website The Ringer. Their guest last week was David Plouffe.

Plouffe, a Delaware native, was President Obama’s campaign manager in 2008 and joined the White House to oversee the 2012 effort there. He has also served as an informal advisor to the Clinton campaign from the beginning and is generally considered the most talented Democratic operative at the moment.

While it was Plouffe’s comments about Donald Trump that got the headlines, he made some especially intriguing remarks about the Keystone State. Plouffe was asked what states Barack Obama won that Hillary Clinton should most be concerned about losing. He felt Colorado and Virginia were more likely to flip than any Rust Belt states.

“I’m not a huge believer in, you know, Trump is gonna flip Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,” Plouffe said. “The Pennsylvania thing we saw this twice right?”

“I know,” Favreau answered.

McCain, Romney, ‘we’re gonna go win Pennsylvania’. I mean it would take the biggest acrobatic contortion of all-time for a Republican to win. Now, so that will be a test for Hillary Clinton. I mean, is she willing to win it by four or five instead of seven or eight. And when Ed Rendell calls, and says ‘You’ve got to drop everything else and come to Pennsylvania’. Does she say ‘You know Ed, thanks but no thanks’? I mean that’s gonna be a test for the campaign.”

“Or he’ll just say it in the press instead of calling,” Favreau interjected.

“Right, he’ll do that first, then call her. Right,” Plouffe responded as all three Obama alums laughed about Rendell’s media proclivity.

What makes this significant is that Plouffe admits that the Obama campaign let Romney eat into their lead in PA because they felt their floor was still enough to secure a victory. In 2012, that ended up being the case but the dropoff from 2008 made it seem that PA was becoming a bit redder.

So heading into the general election contest, each party has a preconception about Pennsylvania. The Democrats are sure they can’t lose while Republicans are positive this will finally be the time they pry it away. Whoever’s right may end up not only winning the Keystone State but the presidency as well.

UPDATE: Plouffe reiterated his beliefs when it was revealed that Hillary Clinton’s latest ad buy wouldn’t include Pennsylvania:

10 Responses

  1. A survey of Pennsylvania voters showed 78% overall support for a national popular vote for President.

    Two-thirds (176 of 253) of the general-election campaign events, and a similar fraction of campaign expenditures, were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa).

    Presidential elections don’t have to continue to be about a narrowly focused barrage of attention by the media, candidates, pollsters, strategists, organizers, and ads in the handful of swing states that dominate and determine the general election, while most of the country is politically irrelevant.

    The National Popular Vote bill is 61% of the way to making every vote, everywhere, politically relevant and equal in every presidential election, by guaranteeing the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.

    The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
    All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.

    The bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 261 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

  2. I’m pretty sure “Tim” is a parody account, but Poe’s Law could be in play.

    As far as Romney in Pennsylvania in 2012, his Harrisburg office was at 20 N 2nd, the office building where Bacco occupies the first floor. They were up pretty high – several stories up, definitely not street level – and their windows were completely blocked by Romney signs, including the windows on the doors inside. I remember a couple of stories from back then that they had nobody at the office. Granted, that was later in the campaign when I think they finally realized it was hopeless to try to contest the Commonwealth after pouring a bunch of money and resources in. Says a lot about their prospects here.

  3. Tim – the perfect example of the true Trump supporter. They should put Timmy on a TV ad!

  4. Oh yeah, by the way Gulag, The Trump files are secondary to the treasure trove of data on those servers which detail out the DNC’s entire operation, the entire staff on the Clinton campaign and plenty of dope of crooked Hillary too. Just wait until her “lezbian sex tapes” are released late this summer or right before the election. Should make for some interesting viewing when the torrent goes live on the pirate sites.

  5. We’ll see lads. Your great Democrat “motor voter law” had all of the 9/11 hijackers registered to vote! Along with millions of illegal immigrants too! No proof of citizenship required!
    All of your constituents are the ones rioting and beating up attendees at Trump rallies and yelling “kill the police”.
    Add in your radical pals @ $blacklivesmatter and the BlackBloc anarchist group which threatens to bomb the GOP convention in Cleveland next month, and we can expect major violence and perhaps murders at this convention due to the communist left agitators that your party embraces.

    Also, it’s interesting to note that Ohio has “open carry” so I’m sure that Trump supporters will take full advantage of their 2nd amendment protections by packing heat and using their weapons if they feel that their body and life face imminent danger or death. Put is this way, if some psycho political protestor attacked me because I was wearing my Trump hat and t-shirt, I would have no qualms on gunning the sob down in order to protect my life and limb.

    The real rioters are the Democrats and the real racists are the Democrats, especially the hispanics under their “La Raza” flag and the blacks under their #blcklivesmatter banner. These are the most racist people in the country. They can attack Trump supporters without risking arrest. However, if the tables were turned and white Trump supporters started rioting and attacking black and hispanic Clinton supporters at a Clinton rally, then this would be a major HATE CRIME and their would be hell to pay and the media would have a field day as the “evil white Trump supporters” attacked blacks and latinos at a Clinton rally! The national media would go apeshit and everyone would go haywire. But in reality, there is no difference.

    You demonize whites but coddle the blacks and hispanics and give them a pass when they riot and assault people, because like all white middle class liberals you have to defend them no matter how guilty they are of the criminal activity that they participate in.

    You make excuses for these criminals and claim that they can be held responsible for their behavior because of todays social construct which is tilted against them…,

    Let me get out my violin and play some sympathy music for you idiot libs. Too bad your corrupt leader left her morals and integrity with her youthful ideals.

    Case closed.

  6. Tim-
    Your “news” site also contains the story: “256 Years Old Man Breaks The Silence Before His Death And Reveals SHOCKING Secrets To The World”


  7. Tim: You are delusional. Russia is busy hacking Dem files to see what they have on Trump. No need to go there, as Trump puts it all out there himself to show he is unfit to be President. True, PA could just open its mental institutions to swell GOP votes, but the Guv is Dem Heh,heh, and so is the AG….still.

  8. Wikileaks is set to unleash a treasure trove of Clinton document that will virtually assure her indictment. SEE;
    And the Russians are set to release a treasure trove of her State Dept. e-mails from her “secure” personal server. SEE;
    Along with a whole slew of damaging revelations about this American traitor and spy, Pennsylvania will bleed red by November. It will be impossible for Clinton to win this election. Bottom line, Trump is the President elect.

Comments are closed.

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