PA-Sen: Cook Moves Toomey’s Seat to “Toss Up” Column

Toomey SadDonald Trump is hurting Pat Toomey.

At least that’s the conclusion of Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report.

As a result of Trump’s front-runner status, the prognosticators are moving the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Ohio from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up”.

While Duffy recognizes that blue state Senators in presidential years were always going to have difficulty this is not the reason for the change.

“Not all rating changes are created equal,” she writes. “Some changes happen when a first-tier candidate gets into a race and instantly makes it more competitive. Others occur because an incumbent retires, rendering the open seat more vulnerable. Still other rating changes are made in the wake of an event significant enough to alter the trajectory of a race. Finally, some races move into more competitive categories not because of anything specific to that race or to the candidates running but because of the overall political environment. This is the case in our two latest rating changes.”

The other major problem is no one knows what ultimate effect a Trump nomination will have on the rest of the ticket since this would be an unprecedented situation.

“Is it possible for Toomey and Portman to outperform the Republican presidential nominee and go on to win?,” Duffy writes. “Yes, but it is very difficult. The closer the presidential race is in these states, the more likely that can happen. Conversely, the wider the margin of victory at the top of the ticket, the less likely a Portman or a Toomey can survive.”

26 Responses

  1. Well, I talked to my Wyoming senator Mike Enzi recently and he said Pat Toomey is the best guy he’s got on the Budget Committee. For what it’s worth. He sure didn’t seem too interested in helping Gary Alexander, Tim Costa and me reform welfare in Pa. (before my run-in with the aforesaid saintly, elderly, disabled, black, female preacher who played he own wrongdoing for all it was worth, race-pimping at its worst).

  2. Toomey is never for anything never puts forward positions of what he is in favor of. Toomey and Senators like him have spent the last five years obstructing everything that has come before the Senate. They have destroyed the legacy of Ronald Regan. This do nothing Senate has cost this country millions of dollars for doing exactly nothing. Toomey has to run on his record. His record is true bat shit. Six more years of Pat Toomey would be a disaster. He should have had an opponent in the primary. I as a Republican will not vote for Toomey.

  3. Steven Todd endorsement = death knell for any campaign. Just ask Governor Hanger. At least Sestak has the establishment of central pa irrelevance.

  4. I voted for Toomey last time….big mistake…but I will not this time. He has been too far to the right for the average PA constituent.I guess it will be another repeat of Santorum!!

  5. SO glad I no longer live in Pa. anymore. Between just about having my life ruined by serving as a Deputy Secretary in the RINO Corbett ass-ministration and Pat Toomey’s sellout on social issues, I am well out of there. And to think I once put $500 into his campaign. At least I got to meet Judge Bork before he died.

  6. Activist, I believe you are exactly right (perhaps even far right). The obvious thing to do for you and all of your fellow conservatives is to stay home in November and refuse to support this turncoat.

  7. The problem Senator Toomey is having are directly related to his acquiescence to the left on issues like Gun Control (background checks) and Judicial Appointments (at all levels) that are betraying his base.

    Saw it with Santorum and it’s like Deja Vu all over again. He was supposed to be the counter-balance to left-wing Casey but left-wing lite is not selling well.

  8. Thank you, GOP Primary electorate. Just in time, as Sestak pulls far out in front of his Dem Primary opponents, where he belongs. True, the Dem Establishment will now spend even bigger against him. It is a shame to see them waste cash they could put to helping the winner of this race, but my party has baffled me before.

    Why This Bernie Sanders Delegate Candidate Endorses Admiral Joe Sestak as PA’s Next US Senator

    https://steventodd.wordpress.com/2015/12/02/why-i-endorse-admiral-joe-sestak-as-pa-senator-to-the-us-senate/

  9. PADem

    I’ll probably be on a grassy knoll somewhere. 🙂

    I’m sorry I missed out on Sestak’s reaction when he lost in 2010. I’m pretty sure it was quite the tantrum with furniture kicked over and finger pointing.

  10. Many voters will vote a straight ticket. What effect will that have on the Toomey race if Trump is leading? Would it be a disaster per David’s comment? I hate to think of Sestak as my senator along with Casey!! What a disaster that would be.

  11. Sorry guys. I am just an old queer lookingh for attention from men on the internet, Just ignore me. Unless you want to meet up at arest-stop on the Turnpike?!?

  12. What effect will it have on the race when the FBI recommends that the DOJ seek an indictment against Hillary? Regardless of whether Obama seeks to protect her, by instructing Loretta Lynch to do nothing, this is not going to go away or get swept under the rug. #NoOneIsAboveTheLaw

  13. It has nothing to do with Trump – Rubio or anyone but Toomey. His support of McConnell- his hypocrisy on so many issues alienate opponents and disgust former supporters. Toomey is a player in the
    Republican establishment that has destroyed What Reagan built- and have harmed anyone that opposes their hypocrisy and incompetence. Toomey will lose big- but it’s disgust with him- stop blaming Trump or others for a republican establishment crowd that stinks!

  14. “Rating changes are made in the wake of an event significant enough to alter the trajectory of the race.” Toomey himself has come to this realization by finally agreeing to meet with Judge Merrick Garland. It won’t be long until he agrees after re-thinking his previous decision to proclaim his support for a hearing for Judge Garland.

  15. I think for Senator Pat Toomey will win reelection whenever he’s in a toss up race or not

  16. gulagPittsburgh-

    Toomey isn’t blaming Trump (well, at least publicly or in this article). This the Cook analyst making an evaluation.

  17. Toomey should be a real man and take credit for his own failure. Blaming Trump is an easy excuse, not a reason. Trump is his own failure.

  18. It’s funny that it’s based on Trump as the likely nominee, rather than the merits of Toomey vs the Dem candidate.

    Can anyone think of a recent case where a presidential nominee was considered so disastrous for down-ticket candidates?

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