PA-Sen: Cook Rates Casey’s Seat “Likely Democrat”

bob-caseyThe 2016 election is over, which means the 2018 elections have begun.

The Cook Political Report released their first ratings of the Senate races in two years.

Republicans have a map major advantage as this class was last up for re-election in 2012 when President Obama won his second term. As a result, the Dems have to defend 25 seats while the GOP is on defense in just eight.

Already, Republicans are dreaming of a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority. After all, ten Democratic Senators now represent red states while just one Republican Senator resides in a blue state.

For the first time in his career, Bob Casey is now one of those Democrats in enemy territory.

Cook classifies Sen. Casey as one of seven incumbents in the “Likely Democrat” category while five are ranked as “Lean Democrat”.

In fact, one of Casey’s biggest advantages could be that Republicans have more tempting targets in ruby red states like Indiana, Missouri, Montana and West Virginia.

Finally, another factor working in the incumbent’s favor is that midterm elections are almost always repudiations of the previous presidential election.

Since the Civil War, the party in power has had three successful midterm elections: 1934 (the public still blamed Hoover and the GOP for the Great Depression), 1998 (people were sick of the Lewinsky scandal) and 2002 (George W. Bush still held sky-high post-9/11 approval ratings).

Given Trump’s historically low favorability numbers, even in the aftermath of victory, 2018 could quickly turn into anti-Trump wave.

Either way, the clock is ticking and Senator Casey doesn’t have much time to decide on a strategy.

19 Responses

  1. A throw back but a worthwhile look for Republicans in Pa. looking to make more history if Congressional members don’t bite…

    His Lt. Governor run of ’10 made people pay attention.

    Joe Watkins for Senate in ’18.

  2. Bobby Casey has a glass jaw. A good right hook and he’s done. Several right hooks are in their corners waiting for the bell to ring.
    This will be a knockout not a decision and easier than some think.

  3. Casey has all the charisma of a rag doll. Ed Rendell needs to STFU, and go away. He is so stupid that he appointed unethical and ignorant Cynthia Baldwin to the PA Supreme Court.

  4. If I were Casey I wouldn’t get too excited over Cook categorizing the reelection as “Likely Democratic.” This was the same man who claimed the same for Hillary Clinton.


  6. Casey’s staying power might not help him as much in 2018, considering what happened this past election. Still, Whistleblower is right in pointing out that Casey has avoided doing much of anything that could get him in trouble. And in his case, it means not having done much at all. But the PA Democrats are happy with that and will support him unless he says or does something silly.

    A felt need for new blood among PA Democrats, as well as a general thirst for old blood at the present time in the Democratic party, could have Casey working a lot harder to keep his seat next election.

  7. I’ll tell you what he’s accomplished beside fabulous constituent service…. NOT EMBARRASSING THIS CESS POOL PATRONAGE WHOR CORRUPT STATE!

  8. Dan-

    You should ask what the republican terds that were just re-elected have done… what a waste of tax money

  9. I’ll tell you what he’s accomplished…preventing a bombthrowing jerk like Santorum from still being a Senator. So be grateful. :-/

  10. Has anyone checked to see if Casey still has a pulse or is the suit still empty? This guy is such a cypher that he doesn’t show up when going through the TSA xray machine. What has he accomplished in 12 years?

  11. I will support Bob Casey for his 3rd term to the US Senate if he does runs for it in 2018.

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