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PA-Sen: F&M Poll: McGinty 39% Toomey 38%

Katie_McGintyKatie McGinty is on the upswing.

The latest Franklin & Marshall poll shows the Democratic nominee with a one point lead over Republican incumbent Senator Pat Toomey.

Among likely voters, McGinty leads Toomey 39% to 38% with 23% undecided. Just among registered voters, though, McGinty is ahead 38% to 30% with 32% undecided.

Approval and Favorables

Just 25% (4% excellent, 21% good) of Pennsylvanians approve of the job Sen. Toomey is doing while 52% disapprove (30% fair, 22% poor).

Furthermore, only 23% have a favorable opinion of the incumbent (8% strongly, 15% somewhat). 40% have an unfavorable opinion (23% strongly, 17% somewhat).

McGinty’s ratings are slightly better with 25% having a favorable opinion (7% strongly, 18% somewhat) and 25% having an unfavorable opinion (16% strongly, 9% somewhat).

Perhaps most distressing for Toomey’s campaign is the fact that only 24% of respondents feels he deserves re-election whereas 51% believe it’s time for a change.


The Democratic nominee is ahead among the following groups: slightly liberal (78/3), extremely (78/4), Democrats (66/7), Philadelphia residents (61/12), Allegheny residents (55/32), Non-whites (49/7), those with a college degree (49/26), Southeast residents (49/27), unaffiliated with a religion (47/21), those that don’t own a gun (46/23), females (44/22), part-time workers (44/23),  those who aren’t born again Christian or Fundamentalist (43/24), those making more than $75,000 (43/28), not currently married (41/30), those making between $35,000 and $75,000 (41/31), over 55 years-old (40/38), singled and never married (39/18), under 35 years-old (38/21), whites (37/32), married (37/35), full-time workers (36/29), moderates (35/22), 35 to 54 years-old (35/27), Northwest residents (35/30), Catholics (35/33), Independents (33/20), those with some college (32/31), Northeast residents (31/28).

Meanwhile, the Senator is ahead among the following groups: extremely conservative (76/3), Republicans (63/5), slightly conservative (58/3), born again Christian or Fundamentalist (51/20), Southwest residents (45/21), gun owners (42/24), Protestants (39/31), males (39/32), retirees (39/35), those with a high school diploma or less (37/23), Central residents (34/22), those making less than $35,000 (32/30).

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. They surveyed 661 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 389 likely voters, from July 29th to August 1st. The margin of error is +/- 4.8% for the registered voters results and +/- 6.3% for the likely voters results.

18 Responses

  1. What’s with all these chicks running for office!?! They should be pregnant and barefoot.

  2. Unsanctioned R-

    I was being a bit sarcastic.

    However, I suspect sometime during the primary season, Toomey made a statement to support the eventual nominee (not realizing it could be Trump). Toomey certainly supports denying Obama’s nomination of a Supreme Court Justice to replace Scalia, and wanting the next President to make the appointment. It’s not a stretch to say that Toomey doesn’t want Hillary making that appointment, so he must, therefore, support Trump.

    But, I was thinking more along the lines of listing all the Trump positions that Toomey supports. But, Toomey’s got only two choices: Either he supports Trump or doesn’t. Supporting Trump’s policies allows legitimate claim that he supports Trump. It’s not like Toomey hasn’t made more far fetched claims that McGinty supports terrorists.

    Toomey ran and hid from the Cleveland convention, but McGinty should force him to declare support or not for his party’s candidate. She can always pose it as a “question” to voters in ad with the clear message that Toomey supports Trump. It’s really not a stretch.

  3. David,

    Two days ago you said, “I think McGinty should put out ads directly saying that Toomey supports/endorses Trump.” Basically, you think she should publish lies about Toomey. Are you sure you want a candidate with a reputation of lying to the public like #ShadyKatie to tell more easily-debunked whoppers?

    Or, is lying just the Democrat fall back for advice in general–Lie, Lie Bigger when caught, tell supports to Lie Louder? I mean it works for Obama and the Clintons, I’m just wondering if Democrats really are okay with the ends justifying the means as a matter of course these days?

  4. My advice to McGinty campaign:

    Spend a lot of money on Trump Toomey signs.

    Trump + Toomey = Trouble with a capital T.

  5. McGinty is the first female, under 5’2″, with an unknown accent, and dirty blonde hair, who used to lie about a brother, and work for a Clinton to graduate from college. Remove any one qualifier and she’s not unique at all.

  6. David – I often have harassed you on this platform. I just wanted to apologize and say I respect your comment. This race will be tight, something polls will not be able to predict. Thus far, Toomey has avoided Trump like the plague. It must be exhausting since it is only August. Curious to see what happens in November.

  7. F&M has been as reliable as Mr. Magoo throwing darts at a stop sign.

    Hillary is going to win PA in a landslide. The questions for McGinty are 1) how long will Hillary’s coattails be?
    2) how much can McGinty ride them?

    Given Toomey as a well funded incumbent, and non-bomb-thrower, McGinty has to connect herself with Hillary and connect Toomey with Trump. McGinty can ride the take-back-the-Senate wave.

    With all the focus on the presidency, most voters aren’t going to be playing close attention to this race.

  8. This poll is a joke. With those demographical results, how could it be possible that she’s only ahead by 1%? The turnout will be huge in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh for the Dems; there’s no way Toomey can win.

  9. Pat – let me guess. The retard troll is pretending to be you again? I know you aren’t a huge McGinty fan (b/c fracking), but I also know you’d vote for her 100 times over the do-nothing garden gnome.

  10. In case you haven’t heard, she’s one of the youngest of 10 kids. That’s what she’s running on. Which means that she’s as big a loser as gulag Pittsburgh.

  11. Sestak voters are experiencing Bernie Syndrome and are starting to decide that it’s better to vote McGinty than to let Toomey be re-elected.

  12. This is great news for McGinty in AUG against an incumbent.

    Things will only get worse for Republicans who do not soon act to stop Trump. His candidacy is a threat to America. Decent people should work against him right now.

  13. @Mike Lavanga – Those demographic breakdowns are from the Registered Voters, where she is up 8. Good catch as that would make no sense, but unfortunately it doesn’t look like they gave any Likely Voters demographics, only RVs.

  14. How is McGinty ahead by 11 with those “not currently married”, ahead by 2 with “married” and ahead by 19 with “single and never married” and only be up 1 point in the poll?

  15. The only meaningful numbers:

    The margin of error is +/- 4.8% for the registered voters results and +/- 6.3% for the likely voters results.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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