PA-Sen: F&M Poll: McGinty 43% Toomey 38%

Katie_McGintyKatie McGinty increased her lead from last month’s F&M poll.

The newest Franklin and Marshall survey had McGinty with a five point lead over GOP Senator Pat Toomey, 43% to 38%.

In July, McGinty had a 39% to 38% advantage with likely voters.

Ironically, though, the registered voters numbers flipped. Last month, McGinty was ahead with them 38% to 30%, while today Toomey emerged ahead 37% to 36%. Likely voter screens traditionally favor Republicans but FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has some theories on why that may no longer be the case.

Approval and Favorables

Just 29% (5% excellent, 24% good) of Pennsylvanians approve of the job Sen. Toomey is doing while 53% disapprove (36% fair, 17% poor).

Furthermore, 29% have a favorable opinion of the incumbent (13% strongly, 16% somewhat). 37% have an unfavorable opinion (21% strongly, 16% somewhat).

Meanwhile, McGinty received a 28% favorable opinion (9% strongly, 19% somewhat) and 29% having an unfavorable opinion (19% strongly, 10% somewhat).

Just 33% believe Toomey deserves a second term while 46% say it’s “time for a change”.

Demographics

The Democratic nominee is ahead among the following groups: extremely liberal (83/4), slightly liberal (71/8), Democrats (65/10), Philadelphia residents (64/13), Allegheny residents (51/24), nonwhites (49/27), retirees (48/31), unaffiliated with a religion (45/27), those that don’t own a gun (45/28), over 55 years old (45/34), those with a college degree (44/34), those who aren’t born again Christian or Fundamentalist (43/31), Northeast residents (40/32), Southwest residents (40/37), those making more than $75,000 a year (40/37), those making less than $35,000 a year (39/34), single and never married (38/34), females (35/34) and moderates (32/27).

The two nominees tied with: Catholics (37/37), those making $35,000 to $75,000 a year (37/37), 35 years old and under (35/35) and not currently married (35/35).

Meanwhile, Senator Toomey is ahead among the following groups: extremely conservative (87/3), Republicans (69/5), slightly conservative (64/8), born again Christian or Fundamentalist (55/18), gun owners (51/22), Central residents (46/23), Protestants (46/28), Southeast residents (45/34), Northwest residents (43/20), 35 to 54 years old (42/26), those with some college (40/29), full-time employees (40/34), males (40/38), independent or something else (39/22), high school or less (39/31), married (38/36), whites (37/36) and part-time employees (34/33).

Particularly noteworthy are McGinty’s small leads with females and Toomey’s narrow advantage with whites. The Senator’s large lead in the Southeast is especially interesting.

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. They surveyed 736 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 496 likely voters, from August 25th to August 29th. The margin of error is +/- 4.6% for the registered voters results and +/- 5.6% for the likely voters results.

6 Responses

  1. I am starting to realize that Hillary and Katie will win.

    My life is over.

    I’m gonna go suck some truck-Driver dick.

  2. If the NRA’s poster boy is losing 22 percent of PAs gun owners in this poll, then he really is in trouble.

  3. One has to wonder if Toomey’s lead in the Southeast will hold up as Trump gets decimated in that region on ED. Vice versa for McGinty in the Southwest.

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