PA-Sen: F&M Poll: McGinty 47% Toomey 35%

katie_mcgintyKatie McGinty has never been in a better position in the polls.

The latest Franklin & Marshall survey has the Democratic nominee ahead of incumbent GOP Senator Pat Toomey, 47% to 35%.

Last month, McGinty’s lead was just six points.

Approval and Favorables

Senator Toomey’s job approval number is 29% (5% excellent, 24% good) for the third consecutive time while 54% disapprove (22% poor, 32% fair).

Similarly, his favorables were exactly the same with 30% (13% strongly, 17% somewhat) having a positive opinion of the incumbent although 27% (27% strongly, 20% somewhat) having a negative view.

Meanwhile, McGinty’s favorability is up to 39% (15% strongly, 24% somewhat) have a positive view of her and 38% (25% strongly, 13% somewhat) have a negative opinion.

Only 28% believe the Senator deserves a second term while 54% say it’s time for a change.

Demographics

The Democratic nominee is ahead among the following groups: liberal (86/3), Democrats (75/10), nonwhites (63/24), religiously unaffiliated (61/22) Allegheny residents (61/25), those with a college degree (60/28), Southeast residents (58/28), Philadelphia residents (57/17), those who aren’t born again Christian or Fundamentalist (57/26), those who don’t own a gun (57/27), those making over $75,000 a year (55/36), single never married (53/22), not currently married (51/29), Catholics (50/37), moderates (48/26) those under 35 years old (48/26), part-time employees (48/29), females (48/30), full-time employees (48/36), 35-54 year olds (48/37), whites (46/35), those over 55 years old (45/37), Northwest residents (45/42), males (44/40), retirees (43/37), married (43/40), those making under $35,000 a year (42/27), those making between $35,000 and $75,000 a year (40/39) and independents (38/35).

Meanwhile, Senator Toomey is ahead among the following groups: Republicans (70/9), conservative (73/9), Republicans (66/13), born again Christian or Fundamentalist (61/14), gun owners (48/30), Protestants (44/41), Central residents (44/35), those with some college (42/31), Southwest residents (42/34), Northeast residents (41/39) and high school graduate or less (39/37).

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. They surveyed 652 likely voters from October 26th to October 30th. The margin of error is +/- 5.1%.

24 Responses

  1. Ihope someone thinks about Retired people,middle class,which is no more, I worked forty years and still get hard time at the bank for a loan,the office should be for everyone.Please let us all have a little piece of the pie.Working for everyone!!

  2. If not for Toomey’s endorsement by the government thug police unions, I would have supported him.
    But because of that I at least get the enjoyment of FIRING HIM.

  3. Repubs are doing anything they can think of to suppress the turnout in Philadelphia, including threats by white nationalists and dirty trickster Roger Stone to harass polling places. Could get ugly or could (even better) inspire a record turnout.

  4. Toomey has been a disaster for average Americans. His voting record has him voting against Seniors ,Veterans , College Students, and Working Class Americans. He is a lap dog for Special Interests like the Koch Brothers who have given millions to keep their pooch in the Senate. Enough is enough! Special interests buy tv adds but they can’t vote. Average Americans will show Toomey the door in November 8. Toomey can always go back in the Wall Street Bank Business or maybe another Chinese Billionaire will hie him again as a private derivatives trader. Toomey will pay the price of his atrocious record in the Senate.

  5. Bill and Steven-

    Why anyone even bothers to publish an F&M poll is beyond me. It’s further off than an internal push poll by a candidate.

  6. @Bill Green: No. No serious political observer believes this is a 12 point race. It is too close to call, and will go within 3 points and probably within 2 either way. That is why all the money is being spent. Neither party would spend as much on a 12 point blow out.

    However, presuming McGinty is ahead, as most recent polls show:

    More and more, this is looking like the clincher: McGinty sweeping Allegheny residents (61/25) as expected, while Toomey only has a narrow lead among Southwest residents (42/34).

    While no Dem wins PA without Philly, a GOP win without significant southwest inroads is unlikely as well.

    Throw in the equally impressive numbers from the GOP base – those over 55 years old (45/37) – and this race looks daunting for Toomey.

  7. Bill Green: the answer to your question is that control of the Senate is on the line. they have everything to lose (or gain) so they go for broke. Only a few states are in play at this point, so might as well spend those millions.

  8. Yes Bill. McGinty will CRUSH the one-term garden-Gnome. Toomey is a fraud. He has done nothing in 6 years.

  9. does any serious political observer believe this is a 12 point race? The respective National Committees do not. Why would all this money be invested if this is a blow away victory for one party and defeat by the other? if so, both parties would spend the money someplace where it mattered. It just doesn’t make sense.

  10. The F&M poll for the primary had Sestak ahead of McGinty by 6 and Fetterman getting only 8.

    It also had Hillary beating Bernie 58% to 31%.

    They should have quit the business six months ago after those fiascoes.

    Throwing a dart at a board is a better predictor than F&M.

  11. 16 point swing in a few days between assorted polls??? Muhlenberg numbers are the benchmark here. 12 points is so far off the mark that it doesn’t make any sense. Toomey by 3%.

  12. Does anyone really believe that this is a 12 point race? What methodology is F&M using these days?

  13. With a margin of error of more than 5%, this is clearly not a poll to put much stock into. I trust that McGinty’s team will smile and keep working. Nobody breathes easy for another week.

  14. WOW – where does the F&M poll rate as far as predictability in prior races like Wolf / Corbett 2 years ago?

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