PA-Sen: Harper Poll: Sestak 42 Pawlowski 12 Shapiro 8

SestakIt’s super early but still good news for the Sestak campaign.

On Monday, we described how Toomey leads all challengers in hypothetical 2016 match-ups.

Well, Harper also polled all three potential Democratic candidates against each other. While the number of respondents was small, these are still the first numbers we’ve gotten on what a party primary could look like.

Former Congressman and 2010 nominee Joe Sestak holds a wide advantage with 42%.

Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski comes in second with 12% while Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro (who is being urged to run but likely won’t) finished with 8%.

A massive 39% of respondents were not sure, which probably indicates that Sestak’s lead has a lot to do with name recognition.

Evidence for this lies in each man’s favorability ratings. For instance, Sestak is the most well-known although 28% are still unsure of their opinion on him.

Still, 48% have a favorable opinion of the ex-Admiral (20% very favorable, 28% somewhat favorable) while 24% give him an unfavorable rating (5% very unfavorable, 19% somewhat unfavorable).

Comparatively, 58% and 57% are not sure of Pawlowski and Shapiro respectively.

Pawlowski receives a 25/17 favorable/unfavorable split while Shapiro gets a 27/18.

The sample size for the survey is 173 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-7.45%. Responses were gathered through landline interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted May 6-7, 2015 by Harper Polling.

4 Responses

  1. Let Shapiro get reelected as County Commissioner and then see what’s up with him after this November. There is plenty of time left. And if Josh decides not to run, I hope Gov. Wolf will give a push to Katie McGinty.

  2. How can Pennsylvania be so totally devoid of potential Senate candidates? Shapiro is probably the best play against Toomey, but he is not going to run. This is a completely open race against a “blah” Club for Growth candidate in a strong Democratic state in a Presidential year. When will an ambitious, liberal state representative or small town mayor stand up and take on what is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for career advancement, and more importantly, the chance to recapture the U.S. Senate? MADELEINE DEAN FOR U.S. SENATE.

    http://articles.philly.com/2014-01-03/news/45802317_1_dean-education-funding-gettysburg-address

  3. FYI says:
    May 12, 2015 at 7:15 pm
    The fact that 2016 is a presidential year means absolutely nothing. When will PA Dems wake up and realize that having good candidates does actually matter!?

    2000 – Al Gore Wins PA and Rick Santorum wins a second term:
    RICK SANTORUM (R) 52%
    RON KLINK (D) 45%

    2016 – Hillary Wins PA and Pat Toomey wins a second term:
    PAT TOOMEY (R) 52%
    JOE SESTAK (D) 48%

    The REAL loser in this poll is Joe Sestak. He has the most name recognition out of the 3 opponents polled (I mean come on, he was the nominee in 2010) and he has essentially been running for the job for over 6 years now and he’s losing bad against Toomey.

    The WINNER of this poll is Josh Shapiro. Shapiro hasn’t even announced yet, he’s not as well known. Plus, Shapiro is a proven fundraiser and would get the support of DSCC and Tom Wolf.

    My money is on Shapiro!

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    Total Voters: 232

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