PA-Sen: Harper Poll: Sestak 42 Pawlowski 12 Shapiro 8

SestakIt’s super early but still good news for the Sestak campaign.

On Monday, we described how Toomey leads all challengers in hypothetical 2016 match-ups.

Well, Harper also polled all three potential Democratic candidates against each other. While the number of respondents was small, these are still the first numbers we’ve gotten on what a party primary could look like.

Former Congressman and 2010 nominee Joe Sestak holds a wide advantage with 42%.

Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski comes in second with 12% while Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro (who is being urged to run but likely won’t) finished with 8%.

A massive 39% of respondents were not sure, which probably indicates that Sestak’s lead has a lot to do with name recognition.

Evidence for this lies in each man’s favorability ratings. For instance, Sestak is the most well-known although 28% are still unsure of their opinion on him.

Still, 48% have a favorable opinion of the ex-Admiral (20% very favorable, 28% somewhat favorable) while 24% give him an unfavorable rating (5% very unfavorable, 19% somewhat unfavorable).

Comparatively, 58% and 57% are not sure of Pawlowski and Shapiro respectively.

Pawlowski receives a 25/17 favorable/unfavorable split while Shapiro gets a 27/18.

The sample size for the survey is 173 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania and the margin of error is +/-7.45%. Responses were gathered through landline interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey was conducted May 6-7, 2015 by Harper Polling.

May 13th, 2015 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Senate, Top Stories | 4 Comments

4 thoughts on “PA-Sen: Harper Poll: Sestak 42 Pawlowski 12 Shapiro 8”

  1. bobguzzardi says:

    Comcast/NBC/MSNBC/Universal’s money is on Toomey.

  2. Montco PA Dem says:

    Let Shapiro get reelected as County Commissioner and then see what’s up with him after this November. There is plenty of time left. And if Josh decides not to run, I hope Gov. Wolf will give a push to Katie McGinty.

  3. George Earle says:

    How can Pennsylvania be so totally devoid of potential Senate candidates? Shapiro is probably the best play against Toomey, but he is not going to run. This is a completely open race against a “blah” Club for Growth candidate in a strong Democratic state in a Presidential year. When will an ambitious, liberal state representative or small town mayor stand up and take on what is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for career advancement, and more importantly, the chance to recapture the U.S. Senate? MADELEINE DEAN FOR U.S. SENATE.

  4. FYI says:

    FYI says:
    May 12, 2015 at 7:15 pm
    The fact that 2016 is a presidential year means absolutely nothing. When will PA Dems wake up and realize that having good candidates does actually matter!?

    2000 – Al Gore Wins PA and Rick Santorum wins a second term:
    RON KLINK (D) 45%

    2016 – Hillary Wins PA and Pat Toomey wins a second term:
    PAT TOOMEY (R) 52%
    JOE SESTAK (D) 48%

    The REAL loser in this poll is Joe Sestak. He has the most name recognition out of the 3 opponents polled (I mean come on, he was the nominee in 2010) and he has essentially been running for the job for over 6 years now and he’s losing bad against Toomey.

    The WINNER of this poll is Josh Shapiro. Shapiro hasn’t even announced yet, he’s not as well known. Plus, Shapiro is a proven fundraiser and would get the support of DSCC and Tom Wolf.

    My money is on Shapiro!

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