That’s the conclusion of Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight, who projected the results in each of the 34 Senate races this November.
“What’s the deal with the two probabilities for this seat? If you look at all polls taken in the first half of this year, Democrats have an 18 percent chance of winning,” Enten writes. “If you look only at the one poll taken since McGinty won the Democratic nomination in late April, they have a 46 percent chance.”
That poll was the Quinnipiac survey that showed Toomey leading by a point, 45% to 44%.
“That Toomey has led in every single poll is likely a testament to his skill as a politician,” Enten continues. “He’s one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Senate and represents a state that hasn’t voted for the Republican in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush won there in 1988. Toomey had a +15 percentage point net approval rating in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. He also has a cash-on-hand advantage over McGinty of more than $8 million.”
Since Pennsylvania has shown signs that it may be trending red, Clinton’s performance will likely make the difference for McGinty on November 8th.
“For McGinty to win, the formula is simple,” Enten concludes. “First, she must hold on to her post-nomination polling bounce. Second, Clinton has to keep her advantage over Trump in the presidential election (she hasn’t trailed in a single statewide poll of Pennsylvania this year), and her voters have to also pull the lever for McGinty.”