PA-Sen: Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll: Toomey 41% McGinty 40%

pat-toomeyIncumbent GOP Senator Pat Toomey has regained the lead over Democratic nominee Katie McGinty.

That’s the conclusion of the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll, which has Toomey at 41% and McGinty with 40%.

This is a significant swift from the five-point lead McGinty had last week.

Much like the presidential race, these two surveys likely show the range of possibilities right now. If Clinton were to win the state solidly, McGinty would likely follow. If Clinton’s victory is narrower or Trump prevails, though, Toomey will probably win.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll was conducted by Muhlenberg University from September 19th to 23rd. They surveyed 486 likely Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error is +/-5%.

8 Responses

  1. Montco PA Dem-

    My take on the polls is that the Senate polls are meaningless. McGinty rides Clinton coattails behind Hillary’s result by about 4%. So, if Hillary wins PA by 5%, then McGinty is our next Senator.

  2. DD — The MOE on this poll is +/- a full 5%, which applies to both sides. So reality could be anywhere from Toomey 46-McGinty 35 to McGinty 45-Toomey 36. The only thing this poll tells with certainty is that there are still a lot of undecideds waiting to make up their minds.

  3. “Allivesmatter” is another candidate for Poe’s Law. Is he really that crazy or is he just making fun of the crazies?

  4. No politician in the last 50
    years can rival crooked Hiliary- she is vile, vicious and has a level of arrogance that disgusts so many of us. Hiliary enabled Bubbas womanizing and she has been part of a group so corrupt- they almost make Obama look honest. Remember- “gulag”- ALL lives matter. Bless the Donald- even if we don’t vote for him for calling out crooked Hiliary and attacking all racists- black as well as white.

  5. “regained the lead” ??

    The margin of the poll is +/- 5%.

    41% to 40% could be rounded up from 40.7% and down from 40.3%

    Basically, it’s a tie. The same poll has Hillary 44% Trump 41%

    It’s no shock to anyone that McGinty is riding Hillary’s coattails and down a few points from Hillary. Hillary needs to win by at least 4% or 5% for McGinty to pick up enough straight Dem ticket votes to win.

    The senate candidates could be named: Incumbent A and Challenger B and the outcome would be the same.

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