In a new piece on FiveThirtyEight, Silver categorizes Pennsylvania as a toss-up state that the Dem has a 59% chance of winning. He puts PA in the same column as New Hampshire when considering how the Democratic Party could win enough seats to take back the Senate majority.
“If everything else is going well for Democrats — they win the presidency, Nevada and all three of the races above [Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana] — they’ll need only one of these two seats,” Silver explains.
“Clinton’s polling in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire has held up relatively well even as it has deteriorated elsewhere, but the incumbent Republican senators in both states are running ahead of Trump,” he continues. “In Pennsylvania, Democrats have an inexperienced candidate in Katie McGinty, who has not previously held elected office. But she’s held narrow leads over Republican incumbent Pat Toomey in the majority of recent polls, and Toomey may be too conservative for the state.”
Republicans are defending 24 seats on November 8th, while Democrats have just 10 seats up for grabs. The current composition of the upper chamber is 54-46 in favor of the GOP, so Dems will need at least four seats to retake the majority. A 50-50 tie is broken by the Vice President.