PA-Sen: PPP Poll: Sestak 29 McGinty 22 Fetterman 14

Joe-Sestak-headshotThe 2016 Senate Democratic primary is wide open.

That’s the finding of the latest Public Policy Polling survey.

PPP conducted the first poll to include all three Democratic candidates: former Congressman Joe Sestak, ex-Chief of Staff to Governor Wolf Katie McGinty, and Braddock Mayor John Fetterman.

Sestak holds the lead with 29% while McGinty takes 22% and Fetterman finishes with 14%. The leader, however, is undecided which received 35%.

They was a significant gender gap in the results. Men favored Sestak, giving him 34% compared to 18% for McGinty and 16% for Fetterman. Among women, though, Sestak and McGinty each received 25% while Fetterman got 12%.

Each candidate’s favorability ratings were also tested. Sestak recorded the best favorable/unfavorable split (29/18) while McGinty (23/15) and Fetterman (10/16) followed. Nevertheless, 53%, 62% and 74% of respondents respectively were undecided about the candidates.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 416 Democratic primary voters from October 8th to 11th. The margin of error is +/-4.8%.

25 Responses

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  2. HaHaHa-

    In political circles (the party and readers here) do know about me. The average voters, of course not. But, people have asked me (jokingly) if I would consider running just to screw with Sestak.

    But, my “public beef” started with a letter to the editor of the local Delaware County Times newspaper criticizing Sestak’s May 2007 Iraq War funding vote. I followed up with another published letter for Joe’s Dec 2007 second vote on war funding.

    Those letters were the beginning of exposing Sestak for the duplicitous, phony, lying SOB he is.

  3. I like that Diano talks about his “public beef” with Sestak and even jokes about running, as if anyone knows who he is.

  4. Observer #2

    Sestak’s Virginia home is NOT his “vacation home”. It is his primary residence (since 1998) with his wife and his child. His house in PA is really just a campaign HQ.

    BTW: Team McGinty.. look into FEC rules about whether Sestak should be declaring rent/expenses of his PA house on his campaign finance reports, due it’s primary function as an HQ.

    Also, there may wind up being a 4th candidate in the race. FEC reports show that Joe Vodvarka filed a statement of candidacy in early July

    docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg?_15020179737+0

    Some history…
    Mr. Vodvarka attempted to run in the 2010 Primary, but was thwarted by a petition challenge from Sestak.

    In 2012, Vodvarka ran again and made it onto the ballot, this time against Casey, and got 20% of the primary vote.

    So, given that Vodvarka learned more about petitions from his 2010 run and successfully got on the ballot in 2012…. we should assume that he is capable of getting on the ballot in 2016…. if he decides to follow through on his candidacy filing.

    Vodvarka is from MC KEES ROCKS, which is also in Allegheny County (same as Fetterman). So, that could affect the regional politics/balance of the ballot.

    He’s got a live webpage: JoeVodvarka.com with his positions on the issues.

    So, this could wind up being a 4-way race.

    Oh… in case anyone was wondering… I will NOT be running or declaring my candidacy for this race. It would be funny, but I’m just too f*cking lazy to do all the door knocking and paperwork. 🙂

    I realize this may come as a disappointment to some who might enjoy seeing me debate Sestak on stage.

  5. @Observer You really don’t know anything about anything. Please do a bit of research on the old google you may have heard the kids talking about. Fracking, while posing some risks, is on the whole not a significant risk for contaminating our drinking water, particularly when proper provision are in place. By turning to harsh rhetoric about poisoned drinking water you have resorted to the same scare tactics that the right used to start the war in Iraq, resist and undermine true healthcare reform, and now launch an attack on a vital women’s health organization.

    Educate yourself:
    http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/21b8983ffa5d0e4685257dd4006b85e2/b542d827055a839585257e5a005a796b!OpenDocument

    You have seen what this primary focused strategy has done to the Republican party, turning it into a dysfunctional mess that serves as its own worst enemy. Do not try and lead that charge for us.

    I had not fully tuned into this primary yet, but seeing Sestak attack the Democratic establishment is in the same vein as the antics by Ted Cruz and his crazy cohort. It is bad for the party, and worse yet, it is bad for the country as people tune out our political discourse when nothing gets done.

  6. Hi David:
    I just now noticed I posted in mid-sentence while going out the door to an appointment. So, to finish: I know more commenters will likely post more info/speculation about the candidates’ houses, spouses, etc., but more important to me than candidate A, B, or C’s vacation homes at the shore or mountains and their price tag is what the expense reports show as to where the funding of the candidates is coming from. I liked your humor regarding the bartender! My advice, simply buy imported beer and you’ll probably be OK.

  7. Observer #2

    I don’t drink beer, and I’ve yet to hear a single beer drinker ask the bartender: “do you have any beers made with unfracked water?”

    The alcohol is worse for you than any residual fracking contamination. And I’m not even counting the drunk driving deaths.

    Sestak’s home isn’t in the state.

  8. Back to residences—so, what about the $1million house that fracking built for McG? Most of SE PA does not like drinking poisoned water, beer, soda, etc. that originates in fracked areas. Most of SE PA AND Central PA does not like fracking. Much of Western PA does not either, Fayette, and a few other counties, the exception. SO, if McG and her husband have a million dollar home that fracking built, is housing a fair question to raise—since 2 of you have some fascination with Sestak’s home— and Fetterman’s home still needs to be “vetted?” Personally, my friends buy their beer from non-fracked areas, including abroad—and we hate to buy abroad—but our health is a consideration. We avoid soda most of the time. Do we really want to go to the candidate’s homes/residences as a debate. I know more……….

  9. gulagPittsburgh-

    Sestak’s idea of “porn” is watching Captain Queeg chewing out a sailor for having his shirt untucked.

  10. DD: Why don’t you release the Sestak staffer emails? That seems to be the thing to do in PA. Plus we could see for ourselves what transpired.

  11. Observer-

    My public beef with Sestak started over his May 2007 Iraq funding vote, and included a letter to the editor.

    Regarding payment for services, Sestak’s 2006 campaign did use my software. The payment terms were supposed to be a data dump of voter contact info, instead of $$$. Team Sestak not only failed to honor it’s obligation on the data dump, but I caught them trying to steal data/capture from my system into their own separate Excel database.

    I caught them because one of the IDIOT staffers knew I was a computer guy, but didn’t know it was my system. He asked me for my technical help stealing the data into Excel.

    So, the theft and attempted theft of service revealed a lot about Sestak and his character. But, the Iraq funding vote directly contradicted his clear campaign promises and that’s what I’ve gone after him about.

  12. Observer, there is no rumor that Fetterman’s money came from Rove or any other dark source. It’s all publically available. You’re really, really getting desperate.

    Sestak should walk home to his family in Virginia.

  13. aaron –

    You really need to change your meds. Carson is an incredible fool and conspiracy theorist out of touch with reality due to his extreme religious views. He’s appealing to crazies in the GOP, but Hillary would crush him in a debate and election.

    Observer #2-
    “Running as a woman” didn’t help Schwartz because she was not particularly appealing/feminine and it wasn’t a big issue.

    But, more importantly, she handled that message COMPLETELY wrong. My example:
    She had a dozen campaign workers outside Drexel for the debates holding signs about “Women for Schwartz”. However EVERY single worker was a guy. Not a single female was in this group of campaign staff. #messagefail

    This year, with Hillary as the nominee, McGinty would get a boost from female voters, particularly because Katie could highlight Toomey’s bad record on women’s health/rights.

  14. Diano’s Sestak hatred is tiresome, that’s for sure – just cuz his kid didn’t get paid for a VOLUNTEER gig many years ago.

    Amazing that Money McGinty could not even win the women’s vote! I guess lots of people do see her for the sycophant that she is… And is there any truth to the rumor that Fetterman’s money is coming from Karl Rove? Dark, dark money indeed…

  15. Sestak’s favorability is better than McG. McG will fade as the campaign goes on. When people know her (inside) story—- there are a lot of negatives. Running as a “woman” did not help A. Schwartz nor should it. So, what’s left for McG to run on??

  16. BTW, the same PPP poll had General election

    • 41-34 vs. Braddock Mayor John Fetterman
    • 43-36 vs. former gubernatorial chief of staff Katie McGinty
    • 41-38 vs. 2010 nominee Joe Sestak

    This is basically dead-even for the candidates given the margin of error and probably says more about Toomey against “generic Dem” than anything else.

    The same poll has Ben Carson beating Hillary in PA. LOL So, it shows how crazy early polls can be.

    Note: poll was before Hillary’s debate, where she handled herself well.

  17. 14% is actually a very good number for Fetterman when compared to the others considering how long he’s been in the race. He’s 8% behind McGinty who just ran a statewide campaign for Governor as well as being the state party’s choice. Sestak is definitely in trouble.

  18. Hahaha! After running an endless political campaign for 6+ years, Virginia Joe just can’t get traction with Pennsylvania voters.

    -McGinty has only been in this race for a little over 2 months and is bringing in huge sums of $$$$$, she’ll have no trouble overtaking Sestak once campaign season kicks into gear especially once Tom Wolf airs an endorsement ad for her.

    -Likewise, Fetterman, has only been in the race for a month or so and he’s bringing in a good amount of $$$$$, albeit not as much as McGinty. Fetterman should also overtake Sestak as the campaign season kicks into gear.

    If I’m McGinty or Fetterman I’m very happy with this poll.

    Great analysis on this poll by Daily Kos:
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/15/1432904/-A-new-poll-gives-Pat-Toomey-the-lead-in-Pennsylvania-but-gives-the-Democrats-reason-for-optimism

    Still waiting on Virginia Joe’s Q3 numbers:
    So far…
    -Toomey – $1.95 million (full Q)
    -McGinty – $1 million (in just 2 months)
    -Fetterman – $170,000 (in just 17 days)
    -Sestak ????? (full Q)

  19. Jim-

    I would have posted sooner, but my WiFi cut out and I had to reset it. (True story.)

    The undecided number is HUGE. This shows that it’s still anybody’s race, and money/name-recognition/organization are going to play a big roll.

    Considering that virtually no one ever heard of Fetterman before his announcement, 14% is not a bad first poll. Note: This poll was BEFORE Fetterman ran his a 60-second ad before the CNN Dem debate.

    The progressives do seem to be becoming more aware of Fetterman, particularly the environmentalists. Fetterman’s 14% could also be the “not those other two candidates” vote.

    Sestak is much stronger with the male vote, and that’s where Fetterman will begin to take more votes. Also, Fetterman will grow regionally.

    HERE IS THE FUNNIEST PART: Sestak got an extra question

    Q5 How much have you heard about Joe Sestak’s march across Pennsylvania: a lot, some, a little, or nothing at all?
    A lot 5%
    Some 17%
    A little 27%
    Nothing at all 50%

    So, 50% never even heard about his walk, 77% little or nothing. Of the 22% that heard some or a lot, how many thought it was stupid and/or a waste of time? They didn’t ask that question.

    But, if the pollster is going to ask a question like that, they should balance it with a question about McGinty or Fetterman.

    Unfortunately, the poll does not include regional data, which is a factor for voters who vote regionally. Adding in the home counties may make a difference to some voters.

    As for McGinty, given her fundraising and party support, closing a 7-point gap with Sestak should not be difficult once she hits the airwaves.

    The high percentage of voters who don’t know enough to have a favorable/unfavorable rating shows that McGinty and Fetterman candidates can make bigger gains introducing themselves to voters. Sestak has already introduced himself, appeared on MSNBC and other interview shows, marched across the state, etc. He’s gotten almost no traction for all that work.

  20. Mcginty just ran statewide tv ads for governor last year,and this is all she got.Toomey will crush whoever wins on democratic side.

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