PA-Sen: Quinnipiac Poll: Toomey 49% McGinty 40%
According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, she is trailing Republican Senator Pat Toomey 49% to 40%.
It would seem McGinty’s post-nomination bounce is gone as she was only down one point last month. The race is now at the same margin it was in April and Toomey is close to the critical 50% threshold for incumbents.
This race contains a number of demographic differences, the most prominent being the gender gap. Toomey leads 56-35 among men while McGinty is ahead 44-42 with women. The Senator actually has the advantage with white women, 47-43, as well as white men, 60-31.
On the other hand, McGinty is the choice of nonwhite voters (53/28) as well as those with a college degree (48/43). Toomey meanwhile has a solid lead among those that don’t have a college degree (52/35).
When broken down by age bracket, Toomey is ahead with: 35-49 year-olds (48% to 42%), 50-64 year-olds (54% to 37%) and the 65 and older group (47% to 42%).
Only 18-34 year-olds (44% to 42%) favor McGinty.
Finally Toomey of course has the support of Republicans, 89-5, while McGinty has the advantage with Democrats, 76-14. Independents meanwhile chose Toomey, 47-36.
Unsurprisingly, Toomey’s approval rating is the same as his support level, forty-nine percent. Thirty-eight percent disapprove while fourteen percent are undecided. The only group where his numbers are underwater is Democrats.
At the same time, 44% have a favorable view of Sen. Toomey while 32% have an unfavorable opinion. 22% haven’t heard enough of the incumbent. His numbers are strongest with white men (50/30/17) and weakest with nonwhites (30/37/29).
Meanwhile, McGinty has a 32% favorable rating against a 28% unfavorable number. A plurality, 39%, haven’t heard enough about her. McGinty’s best numbers are with nonwhites (35/18/46) and her worst are with white men (24/36/39), a mirror image of Toomey.
This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from June 8th to 19th. They contacted 950 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.2%.
“The GOP’s anxiety over shaky Senate seats appears not to apply in Pennsylvania. Sen. Pat Toomey looks good to go so far,” said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
As I noted at the top, these numbers are rough for Katie McGinty. While some have criticized Quinnipiac’s sample size as too white and Republican, that was still the case last month when the Democratic nominee was only down one.
It’s clear that the Democrats are still not yet fully behind their nominee. This may be a result of bitterness from the Sestak camp. This is a problem since, much like Bernie Sanders, the former Congressman has never been much of a team player so it’s unlikely he’ll work hard to remedy the situation.
For example, this was the response from one Sestak campaign vet:
— Jake Sternberger (@JakeSternberger) June 22, 2016
By now it is also apparent that Toomey is a particularly skillful politician, so while this year presents some unusual challenges, so far he is doing relatively well.