Any way you slice it, this is bad news for Democratic nominee Katie McGinty.
According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, she is trailing Republican Senator Pat Toomey 49% to 40%.
It would seem McGinty’s post-nomination bounce is gone as she was only down one point last month. The race is now at the same margin it was in April and Toomey is close to the critical 50% threshold for incumbents.
Demographics
This race contains a number of demographic differences, the most prominent being the gender gap. Toomey leads 56-35 among men while McGinty is ahead 44-42 with women. The Senator actually has the advantage with white women, 47-43, as well as white men, 60-31.
On the other hand, McGinty is the choice of nonwhite voters (53/28) as well as those with a college degree (48/43). Toomey meanwhile has a solid lead among those that don’t have a college degree (52/35).
When broken down by age bracket, Toomey is ahead with: 35-49 year-olds (48% to 42%), 50-64 year-olds (54% to 37%) and the 65 and older group (47% to 42%).
Only 18-34 year-olds (44% to 42%) favor McGinty.
Finally Toomey of course has the support of Republicans, 89-5, while McGinty has the advantage with Democrats, 76-14. Independents meanwhile chose Toomey, 47-36.
Approval/Favorables
Unsurprisingly, Toomey’s approval rating is the same as his support level, forty-nine percent. Thirty-eight percent disapprove while fourteen percent are undecided. The only group where his numbers are underwater is Democrats.
At the same time, 44% have a favorable view of Sen. Toomey while 32% have an unfavorable opinion. 22% haven’t heard enough of the incumbent. His numbers are strongest with white men (50/30/17) and weakest with nonwhites (30/37/29).
Meanwhile, McGinty has a 32% favorable rating against a 28% unfavorable number. A plurality, 39%, haven’t heard enough about her. McGinty’s best numbers are with nonwhites (35/18/46) and her worst are with white men (24/36/39), a mirror image of Toomey.
This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from June 8th to 19th. They contacted 950 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.2%.
Analysis
“The GOP’s anxiety over shaky Senate seats appears not to apply in Pennsylvania. Sen. Pat Toomey looks good to go so far,” said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
As I noted at the top, these numbers are rough for Katie McGinty. While some have criticized Quinnipiac’s sample size as too white and Republican, that was still the case last month when the Democratic nominee was only down one.
It’s clear that the Democrats are still not yet fully behind their nominee. This may be a result of bitterness from the Sestak camp. This is a problem since, much like Bernie Sanders, the former Congressman has never been much of a team player so it’s unlikely he’ll work hard to remedy the situation.
For example, this was the response from one Sestak campaign vet:
https://twitter.com/JakeSternberger/status/745609844053401600
By now it is also apparent that Toomey is a particularly skillful politician, so while this year presents some unusual challenges, so far he is doing relatively well.
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25 Responses
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Is anybody really paying any attention to these ads in May-June-July? Watching these candidates waste this money, millions of dollars for sure, scares me. I refuse to believe that you would watch one of these “commercials” in June and make up you mind who you will vote for in November.
Katie is now claiming to be the first in her family to own a toilet.
If you look into the fine print however, she’s actually the first to own one of the really expensive Totos that washes and blow dries your backside for you.
Empty Chair could do the same job for Pennsylvania as Toomey has in the last 51/2 years . Toomey ‘s record in the Senate is atrocious. If you are a billionaire or a millionaire you would still vote Toomey. If your not a billionaire or millionaire and you support Toomey you are just plain stupid.
Montco PA Dem-
Thanks for posting the past polls showing McGinty equally far behind Sestak (only to beat him by that margin).
Toomey has to deal with his failure to support a vote on supreme court nominee, failure to support meaningful gun legislation and failure to have a GOP presidential candidate who can help him.
My advice to Katie: Buy a lot of Trump-Toomey signs. 🙂
Note to naive readers: those posting as whining Sestak supporters are actually Republicans.
Guys, give it up. It didn’t work in the primary and it’s not working now.
If McGinty does lose blame that vain little man who lives in Virginia. The arrogant Little Admiral again put himself ahead of Democrats defeating Toomey. Instead of helping Democrats win the seat the arrogant Little Admiral went on a thank you farewell tour after losing the primary. Blaming his loss on everyone but himself. Shiummer,Democratic Party, and Rendell. As far as I am concerned if Toomey wins blame Sestak. I am happy he is back in Virginia and hope he never comes back to Pennsylvania. We have enough arrogant pompous men in Politics. Stay in Virginia Joe !
Well congratulations DSCC, your millions to knock out Admiral Sestak were well spent. And congratulations to Marcel Groen, Tom Wolf, and especially their puppet master Fast Eddie because you finally got the girl you want. I’m sure Toomey will be happy to get the six more years. UGH
Has #ShadyKatie conceded yet?
We Dems could have selected the more popular Sestak.
We Dems could have selected the more popular Sanders.
In both cases we allowed the corporate Political Class pick a less popular candidate.
Now, we’ll get what we deserve, until we in the rank and file liberals wise up and take over. Or find a new party that represents us against for-profit corporate campaign donors.
Vacant Head – Do I? You bet, there will be twice as many this fall and they’ll be twice as effective. And don’t forget – a vote for Toomey is vote for Trump=McGinty by at least 20 points.
Hey Diano
Pat please don’t turn your back on Donald Trump or our 2nd ad… You have many pro-gun backers and don’t let us down.
God Bless America.
Western PA
She really SUCKS.
Dear Mr. Toomey
There are a lot of Democrats out here willing to Vote Republican because we are Supporting Donald Trump and we want to make sure that he has what he needs in the house and Senate to Make America Great Again. But if you choose not to Support him then we won’t be supporting you.
Guy, I think the Dems are all now saying/singing “My God, what have I done?” a la Once In a Lifetime by Talking Heads.
Montco Dem, those polls were done before carpet bombing with millions upon millions of 24×7 Obama endorsement commercials for McGinty. Totally unprecedented party backing. Sestak was dumb to not go negative (i.e. Truthful) on McGinty.
I don’t think those are going to be as effective in the general, do you?
McGinty is a bum. Sestak is only slightly better. Dems should have backed Fetterman – win or lose at least they would have put a flag in the ground and said “this is what we’re about” . With Katie dems are saying “we think this is prudent”. Worst case senario with Fetterman you get a stronger candidate for a future run
Three weeks before the April primary:
F&M poll: Sestak 38%, McGinty 29%
Harper poll: Sestak 41%, McGinty 31%
Polls this far out are meaningless. When we hit late October and voters realize that a vote for Toomey is a vote for Trump, he will be sunk. A Democratic wave is coming and Donald Trump is sinking every Republican lifeboat.
With Trump at the top of the ticket, this race is still the Dems’ to lose. And they’ll lose it, too, if they don’t get on the air soon with frequent reminders about who Toomey is, and his Tea Party antics while in office. Toomey/his SuperPacs are constantly slamming McGinty, and those attacks are as yet unanswered, which accounts for most of this (alleged) 9-point spread. The next poll – which will account for Toomey’s very public sane stance on gun regs – will be even worse if the Dems don’t get moving, and fast.
So far, this contest reminds me of the last Dem Governor primary, with Wolf having the airwaves all to himself, with the very predictable result that he won, big.
What are you waiting for, Katy? PA Dems? Senate Dems? Beuler? Anyone?
Quinnipiac is a joke. They have an extreme right-wing bent, just like Rasmussen.
Lying Katie is going to start saying she is leading the polls.
And remember folks, going to community college for two years then going on to earn an bachelors degree at a university and then a masters degree, doesn’t count as having gone to college, according to Katie.
Dem party is now stuck with the candidate they deserve.
McGinty is a wacko. Nobody wanted her as governor, and nobody wants her in Senate. The Democrats backed themselves into a wall choosing the worst of the three Democratic candidates.
Bye bye #shadykatie