PA-Sen: Quinnipiac Poll: Toomey 49 Sestak 34 Toomey 51 McGinty 31

Pat-ToomeyIncumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey is still leading his Democratic opposition.

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Toomey holding a lead over former Congressman Joe Sestak and ex-Chief of Staff to Gov. Wolf Katie McGinty.

Braddock Mayor John Fetterman wasn’t included in the survey.

Toomey leads Sestak 49% to 34% and McGinty 51% to 31%. These numbers aren’t too different from the last Quinnipiac survey in August. The Senator leads both candidates across all demographics except, of course, Democrats.

Additionally, Toomey’s approval rating stands at 51% while just 27% disapprove.

Favorability Ratings

The Senator’s favorability numbers are unsurprisingly close to his approval numbers, as he recorded a 49/25 favorable/unfavorable split.

Sestak, meanwhile, earned a 27/14 split while 59% haven’t heard enough about him. This is intriguing given that he was the 2010 Democratic nominee and has essentially been running for 2016 since the day the first campaign ended.

McGinty got a 16/11 split with a massive 74% saying they don’t know enough about her.

This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from September 25th to October 5th. They contacted 1,049 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3%.

23 Responses

  1. Sestak has a positive message which urges us to find common ground between Libs and Teas where the individualism of America is joined to the policies of the common good. Example: support for small business people including easing up on needles regulations and making low interest loans available. (Pike County Democratic Committee endorsed Sestak.)

  2. “reasonabler rep”- is that a real name or an oxymoron, Mitch McConnell is a terrible excuse for a leader for any party. Obama and Reid celebrate his being. Unless like Hiliary you gave a fetish with right wing conspiracies-,just fess up McConnell is a disgrace and Toomey should be defeated for supporting him. RAT 2016 has less to do with ideology than disgust for rudderless pols like Toomey and McConnell. At least Obama and Reid have guts, are willing to fight and agree or disagree stand for something. Can’t say that about A hack like Toomey!

  3. I don’t really understand that last comment comparing me to an anti-Toomey Republican.

    I consider myself a true Democrat which means it takes more than putting a “D” in front of ones name in order to get my vote. I am also appalled at the way my Parties Leadership has been taken over by a bunch of co-opted shills for Wall Street and other special interests. That is not what I think my Party should stand for. I definitely identify with the Sanders-Warren wing of the Democratic Party, and I reserve the right to refuse to support so-called Democrats who stand for the billionaire class (great term, Bernie) instead of the people of this country. I would remind all of you that I support Sestak, who is a Democrat who refuses to salute at the beck and call of the Democratic machine. I would also consider voting for Fetterman if his positions are compatible with my own. I often vote for Democrats I disagree with, but there is a limit. McGinty probably would qualify for my vote if she was not the chosen annointed one of the machine to derail Sestak (though her close relationship to the fracking industry certainly is troubling to me). She is nothing but a surrogate for the corrupt, bought-and-paid-for machine that hates Sestak because he refuses to ask “how high?” when that say “jump.”

    Once again, putting a “D” in front of one’s name does not make one a Democrat, and Democrats who think our Party should be progressive and free of the influences of Wall Street should be commended for exercising their own discretion in deciding which Democratic candidates are worthy of support, and which are not. I commend the anti-Toomey Republican for having a similar philosophy. I truly fail to understand why Democrats who vote for anyone on the ballot who runs as a Democrat cannot understand why other Democrats have a litmus test. I take no issue with Democrats who like Hillary Clinton and plan to vote for her, or even those who dislike her but still plan to vote for her. That is their prerogative, and I respect it. I simply have too many issues with her to consider voting for her. That is my prerogative.

    Finally, both Clinton and Obama campaigned against the Columbia Free Trade Agreement back in 2008 (which the Democratic Congress had blocked since 2004 because of Columbia’s anti-Labor record and human rights abuses). Both reversed course once they became President and Secretary of State and twisted arms to get that Agreement passed. Does anyone seriously believe she will not reverse course on TPP if she becomes President?

  4. RR – …And the vast majority of less-involved voters in the middle who, after a slam-bang primary season, will end up next November voting for either Toomey or McGinty. Then again, I also said in August that Eagles would win 12 games this season, so what the hell do I know.

  5. I guess for every “Jerry Policoff” on the left, there is a “Republicans Against Toomey” on the right…

  6. I don’t like Sestak and McGinty stinks- but if the choice is toomey how can we vote for a political fraud like him. Toomey led support for one of the worst political leaders in history- Mitch McConnell. He caved to Obama on the joint deficit committee- before anyone else. Let’s vote for a real democrat.- not a political hypocrit like Toomey. If Toomey loses we can send a powerful message that if given lousy alternatives – republicans and Independents will vote democratic. Neither republicans nor our Nation can afford more of incompetents like McConnell or political hypocrites like Toomey

  7. jmarshak

    My expectation is for McGinty to imitate Wolf’s advertising. Once Wolf captured mindshare with his early ads, no ads by any other candidates (McGinty, McCord, Schwartz) made ANY difference.

    That race was such a blowout and anomaly that that ONLY take away is to attempt to reproduce it. The other candidates simply had no chance after that.

    Jerry
    “Sample ballots given out at polling places have to include all the candidates, not just one.”

    100% false. Proving that you do not know your @ss from a hole in the ground. Sample ballots are often only the endorsed candidates. This is especially true when ballots are handed out by union workers at the polls.
    Even if an unendorsed candidate appears, the endorsed candidates are circled, bolded, starred, etc (and the unendorsed are scratched out with a pen or marker)

  8. Those numbers reflect the unweighted sample, not the actual voter registration numbers. Samples are not always perfect. In fact they rarely are because cooperation rates are declining and representative samples are more and more difficult to obtain. That is why pollsters apply weighting, but that causes other forms of bias. The best way to look at polls is with a grain of salt and to study consistency between polls and trends over time. Gallup just decided to get out of the candidate polling business because it is getting harder and harder to do properly, and because their 2008 Presidential polls had serious methodology flaws that caused them to over-estimate Romney’s support.
    On the other hand, depending on how these numbers were weighted it is likely that this poll did help Toomey to some extent. The numbers are surprisingly consistent with past polls though. Even though I am rooting for Sestak and am disappointed by the numbers I suspect they are not far off.

  9. According to this poll 35% of registered voters are Republicans and 32% are Democrats. Call me crazy but that’s not even close to being accurate

  10. Sample ballots given out at polling places have to include all the candidates, not just one. Campaign literature can support one or the other, but it must be labeled as such and paid for by the candidate, not the Democratic Committee. Sample ballots issued by a political committee can indicate which candidates have been officially endorsed, but they can’t, for example, eliminate Sestak’s name and include McGinty’s.
    You just make things up David. Besides, there will be lots of Democratic committees that endorse Sestak, and I suspect he will have signs at most of the polling places.
    Money can achieve a lot, but it can’t inspire voters to vote for an uninspiring candidate, which is what McGinty is.
    Perhaps Fetterman will be better. Hell, I might even vote for him if he supports single-payer healthcare. I will not vote for McGinty for the simple reason that she is the hand-picked candidate of a corrupt Democratic machine. As of now I am sticking with Sestak, and I expect that McGinty will go down in flames no matter how much money she raises. She is a loser just like the Party hacks who persuaded her to run. Just because it worked for Wolf does not mean it will work for McGinty. Wolf had the money to get his name and his ideas in front of the voters, but they voted for Wolf because they liked what they saw, not because he spent a zillion dollars on commercials.
    I will enjoy imagining you eating crow and crying in your porridge on Primary Day, though I am sure we won’t see any mea culpa’s from you here admitting how you were repeatedly wrong. I’d love to get some horse picks from you so I can bet on the other horses.

  11. Yeah DD, McGinty’s ads from her campaign for Governor were gold.

    “You should vote for me because I had to share the bathroom with 10 brothers and sisters when I was a kid! I don’t have any concrete positions on any issues, but I’m cute!”

  12. Jerry Policoff-

    My prediction of McGinty putting dust between her and Sestak is right on track. She had a great fundraising quarter (two of three months, not even a full quarter). I’ve always said that she will raise a ton of money and her best strategy is to do what Wolf did and go on the air early in 2016. That prediction is still on track.

    You said: “given the publicity McGinty has gotten”… There really hasn’t been that much, as indicated by high percentage that don’t know much about her. There’s been very little “ink” and only readers of PoliticsPA even bother to look at the endorsements this early.

    The polls are going to be pretty meaningless until February when the candidates start spending their money for petitions, mailings and introducing themselves to the voters.

    You should be betting on the $1 million (and a lot more) she’s raising.

    The “trend” of the polls is a reflection of (low) name recognition for all the Dem candidates.

    A more telling poll to reveal this would be to ask voters: Who is running for US Senate in PA for 2016?

    For the primary, McGinty’s name is going to be on the vast majority of official party sample ballots handed out at the polls.

  13. There goes David, spinning again. The bottom line is that Quinnipiac trends don’t particularly look great for either Sestak or McGinty, but given the publicity McGinty has gotten with the endorsement of the Democratic machine and many of its rubber stamps, one would think she would be moving up, and she isn’t.

    In this poll Sestak loses to Toomey by 15-points, same as the August poll. McGinty is down by 20, a bigger gap than in the August poll when she was down by 16.

    Sestak is up to a 27% approval rating versus 22% in August, and his best approval rating since April 2013. His disapproval rating is down from 17 to 14 since August, so there is a positive favorable vs unfavorable shift of 8 points for Sestak. Not great, but better than McGinty who went from 15% favorable to 16% with 11% unfavorable, same as August. That is a net positive shift of only + 1 versus + 8 for Sestak.

    So while the changes are marginal Sestak is doing better against Toomey than McGinty, and by a greater margin than in the August poll.

    Both Sestak and McGinty have a long way to go to familiarize the public with who they are. 59% of respondents don’t know enough about Sestak to have an opinion (-2 versus August’s 61%) and 72% don’t know enough about McGinty (also -2 versus August’s 74%).

    I don’t imagine either Sestak or McGinty are thrilled with this poll, but given the fact that McGinty has gotten much more media ink than Sestak and has been swamped with endorsements, one might have expected her to show some progress, and she hasn’t.

    The only thing that is clear here in my opinion is that McGinty is a lackluster and unexciting candidate who shows no sign of igniting a base.

    My money is still on Sestak, though I admit he has his work cut out for him if he is to catch Toomey.

    Diano has been predicting McGinty would put instant dust between herself and Sestak for months now, and it just isn’t happening. Instead she is slowly falling further behind. That won’t stop him from continuing to say it despite the evidence to the contrary.

    On the other hand I would not expect David to actually read the poll and the trends (which requires a little work since Quinnipiac posts them separately from the current poll). After all, he could not continue with his ignorant predictions if he actually bothered to do some homework.

    Perhaps that $1 million campaign fund she has amassed will make a difference for McGinty, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

  14. Given that fewer people know enough about McGinty, her relative performance against Toomey is on par or better than Sestak’s. She will have the time and money to introduce herself to voters with ads like Wolf did and close the gap.
    The real gap in this race is probably about 5 points once voters know the final candidates (regardless of which Dem wins the primary). Then, May to November is closing the gap and presidential coattails to beat Toomey.
    The polls need to start including Fetterman. If he polls near 30% as even more unknown than McGinty, then it’s clear that 30% is the starting point for any Dem (which makes sense).

  15. McGinty managed to come in last in the Governor’s race and still managed to take over the Governor’s Office from weak sauce Wolf. I can’t wait to see how she manages to lose this race in a landslide and still work her way into an influential government job.

  16. Toomey is a reasonable and effective professional. My opinion of course may be enhanced in comparison to the dilettante Bob Casey. Could be talked into Sestak, even though he pays beans to his campaign workers. Fetterman frightens me but seems like an inspirational public servant. McGinty would be worse than Casey

  17. I’ve decided, after all the of Democratic politicians being prosecuted for corruption, that I will vote for integrity. I will vote for Pat Toomey.

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