The initial forecast from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates Sen. Toomey’s re-election a “toss-up”.
Given the Democratic-leaning nature of the Keystone State, it has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six straight elections, Senator Toomey was always going to face an intense battle for a second term.
“Toomey, a former president of the conservative Club for Growth and a one-time primary challenger to the late moderate Republican-turned-Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, is an odd fit for the Democratic-leaning Keystone State,” writes Managing Editor Kyle Kondik.
“However, Toomey has tried to stick to the center on some issues, such as gun control, realizing that he would be a one-termer if he is perceived as a very conservative senator,” Kondik added.
Along with Sen. Toomey, Republican incumbents Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are also rated as toss-ups. Not coincidentally they represent Illinois and Wisconsin respectively, which are also blue states going back to 1992.
Additionally, Kondik discussed the emerging Democratic field
“Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania could also feature another rematch, as former Rep. Joe Sestak (D) appears intent on running,” he asserted. “The state’s Democratic establishment, perhaps still smarting from Sestak’s successful primary challenge against the party-switching Specter in 2010, appears to prefer a candidate named ‘someone else,’ but it’s not clear that they have a better alternative.”