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PA-Sen: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Calls Toomey’s Seat A “Toss-Up”

Pat ToomeyIt may not be surprising news to Senator Pat Toomey, but it still must be unwelcome.

The initial forecast from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates Sen. Toomey’s re-election a “toss-up”.

Given the Democratic-leaning nature of the Keystone State, it has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six straight elections, Senator Toomey was always going to face an intense battle for a second term.

“Toomey, a former president of the conservative Club for Growth and a one-time primary challenger to the late moderate Republican-turned-Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, is an odd fit for the Democratic-leaning Keystone State,” writes Managing Editor Kyle Kondik.

“However, Toomey has tried to stick to the center on some issues, such as gun control, realizing that he would be a one-termer if he is perceived as a very conservative senator,” Kondik added.

Along with Sen. Toomey, Republican incumbents Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are also rated as toss-ups. Not coincidentally they represent Illinois and Wisconsin respectively, which are also blue states going back to 1992.

Additionally, Kondik discussed the emerging Democratic field

“Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania could also feature another rematch, as former Rep. Joe Sestak (D) appears intent on running,” he asserted. “The state’s Democratic establishment, perhaps still smarting from Sestak’s successful primary challenge against the party-switching Specter in 2010, appears to prefer a candidate named ‘someone else,’ but it’s not clear that they have a better alternative.”

7 Responses

  1. Senator Toomey should be “perceived as a very conservative senator” because that is exactly who he is.

    He has Lifetime Scores from the American Conservative Union of 95%; Club for Growth of 93%; and, Americans for Prosperity of 94%.

    Those scores do not in any way come close to matching the views of the vast majority of Pennsylvania’s residents.

    We cannot allow this man to fool us. Pat Toomey is to the core of his being a far Right ideologue despite how he will portray himself during the 2016 General Election.

  2. It is necessary to cite two prior comments to “keep the record straight.”

    First, I explained why Toomey will be difficult to defeat.

    [This was a structured distillation of a decade’s worth of observation that easily withstood typical-Dem rejoinders.]

    Second, I explained why DD lacks credibility.

    [This was a summary of incremental colloquy that concluded: “You have advocated the overthrow of the Israeli government throughout Israel’s entire lifetime … explaining why you have endorsed the behavior of Hamas [which the USA has designated as a terrorist organization] that is, itself, promoting policies that are consonant with those of the Islamic State.”]

    Let’s apply Inductive Reasoning to awareness of these two conclusions. This is a two-step effort [proving (a) that “n=1” and proving (b) that the theorem works for “n + 1” if it is assumed the theorem works for “n”]. First, (a) is met when it is determined that Toomey has earned grudging-respect for his proud-to-be-a-conservative conduct from across the political spectrum. Second, (b) is met when it is determined that a reflex-critic [and Dem-sycophant] falsely claimed Sestak didn’t attack his conservatism, even assuming he could occasionally be correct.

    Therefore, it is concluded that DD again confirmed he is not credible when attacking Sestak for allegedly having failed to point-out Toomey’s political philosophy [“Toomey’s not a moderate. He’s as, or even more, conservative than Santorum.”].

    I attended their Philly-Debate and it was replete with ideological conflict.–105338173.html

    Thus, again, Toomey will be formidable, even against a smooth-operator such as Josh Shapiro [early BHO-booster] and anything DD might upload to the contrary should be ignored.

  3. -I think Toomey has been a very good senator. He seems to works at it and he works at reaching out.
    -I heard from a friend that 4 weeks ago he went to a Habitat for Humanity build site in South Philly. No press invited, no photo op. He did it because he wanted to learn more about solving Philadelphia’s affordable housing crisis. What a refreshing approach, a politician who does not call every media outlet in the city because they are cutting a ribbon.
    -It is very important that Pennsylvania have a seat at the new senate majority table.
    -Thankfully, Toomey has recognized the reality of representing Pennsylvania from the middle and I think he has done a very good job for Pennsylvanians.

  4. We must take back the Senate in 2016 and put an end to Congress putting the interests of Corporations ahead of the people!

    Here in Pennsylvania we can help take back the Senate by nominating Josh Shapiro to be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania!

    Like us at and join our cause today!

  5. Toomey’s not a moderate. He’s as, or even more, conservative than Santorum. I’m sure his opponent will gladly point this out and usher Toomey out of office.

  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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