That’s the conclusion of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which moved the contest from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic”.
“While Ayotte and Toomey are impressive candidates, Clinton appears to have decent-sized leads in both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and several polls have shown their respective opponents, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) and former gubernatorial chief of staff Katie McGinty (D), taking leads (polling averages are basically tied or show a small edge for the Democrats),” they write. “So Ayotte and Toomey are running ahead of Trump, who is generally doing poorly in both states, but not by enough to win. We’ve long thought that the GOP presidential nominee needed to perform better than Mitt Romney did in both of these states in order for the Senate incumbents to prevail. Romney lost both states by about 5.5 points in 2012, and right now Trump is losing each by high single-digits.
“That is not to say the challengers in these states are perfect,” they continued. “Hassan recently got crossed up by a question about Hillary Clinton’s trustworthiness, and observers consider McGinty weak on the stump and a poor public speaker. But by far the most important factor in these races is Trump: He needs to start doing better in both places or he’s going to drag down Ayotte and Toomey.”
Sabato has the Democrats picking up five seats (Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire) and leading the GOP 50 to 49. This means that the Dems would take over the majority if Clinton wins the presidential race. The one toss-up race left, though, is the open Democratic seat in Nevada.