PA-Sen: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Predict Trump Trouble

Toomey SadPat Toomey should fear a Trump nomination.

That is the conclusion of Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

They predict that if Donald Trump is the GOP presidential nominee it would dramatically change the landscape of the battle for the Senate. They refer to this shift as a “Trumpmare” for the Republican Party.

Under their current projections, Democrats would flip two seats (Illinois and Wisconsin) but would still be at just 47 total. Republicans, on the other hand, would have 50 seats. Therefore, the Democrats would have to sweep all three toss-up states (Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire) and win the presidential tie-breaker to take the Senate.

Pre-Trump

In this scenario, PA is categorized as Lean R.

Post-Trump 

With Trump as the nominee, however, Democrats would hold 51 seats. Illinois and Wisconsin would become Likely D while Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania would be Lean D states. The GOP would have just 48 seats with only one true toss-up (Ohio) remaining.

Furthermore, according to Sabato and Kondik, Toomey’s seat would be the most dramatically affected as it would be the only one to move two whole categories.

Supreme Court

The Senate majority is considered extraordinarily important this time around because it appears Justice Scalia’s seat won’t be filled until next year. This is especially important given the partisan and ideological makeup of the Court.

Justice Anthony Kennedy was appointed by Pres. Reagan and Justice Clarence Thomas by Pres. George H.W. Bush. Pres. George W. Bush chose Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito.

On the other side, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Stephen Breyer were nominated by President Clinton. President Obama appointed Justice Sonia Sotomayor and Justice Elena Kagan.

The Court is evenly divided between four conservatives nominated by Republican Presidents and four progressives nominated by Democratic Presidents. As a result, this November’s election could determine the next President, which party holds the Senate majority as well as which side has the advantage on the Supreme Court.

Once again, Pennsylvania will be right in the middle of that battle.

11 Responses

  1. Remember Larry Sabato’s “crystal ball” prediction last Summer? He called Donald Trump “UN-NOMINATABLE.” That was his headline. He evedently has decided to keep embarrassing himself by predicting yet more losses due to Trump.

  2. What a joke. The one candidate, Trump, who pulls support from across the full spectrum of voters, is going to actually hurt Toomey? This kind of BS is what makes the talking bobbleheads so utterly worthless, including Sabato. They’ve either been spectacularly 100% incorrect, or they have some agenda they promote by “predicting” the rise or fall of some candidate. Knowing full well they’re wrong, but because appearance and perception is what they’re after, they lie lie lie. Er excuse me, spin. This is just more BS spin. Toomey’s real threat is from gun owners who see his “bipartisan” anti gun legislation as a dangerous step toward gun confiscation. They are unlikely to support him.

  3. A vote for Pat Toomey is a vote for the Republican Establishment that has advanced Obama’s Left Wing agenda. Pat Toomey by allying himself with the Republican Establishment has undercut the conservative agenda and enabled the left wing agenda.

    I think Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania Republican primary and that there is significant drop off between Donald Trump votes and Pat Toomey votes. A Trump voter is not, in my view, a Toomey voter because Trump is anti-Establishment and Toomey is pro-Establishment. Pat Toomey is an Insider in the year of the Outsider.

  4. Toomey should star in a movie
    Entitled- the walking defeated. His support of McConnell, his capitulation on taxes during budget talks, his weakness on other issues- are a huge turnoff. He will lose to any democrat not because of Trump- but because Toomey is the epitomy of the two faced politicians that all voters are disgusted with.
    I’ll own up to voting for him when he lost to Spector- many of us failed to read his lips and
    Didn’t realize he was just the same ole garbage just repackaged

  5. Another talking head predicting doom if Trump wins the nomination. All supposition and no substance.

  6. Whatever the political conditions look like in November, Dems need to choose a good candidate without undue interference from leadership. Toomey is a canny politician and a skilled chameleon, and he’s loaded up with cash. Never underestimate him.

    I predict PA and Florida will see the most hard fought Senate races this year.

  7. I think Toomey is in worse shape even without Trump at the top of the ticket. He barely won in 2010, a banner year for Repubs. Democrats have turned out for statewide races for governor and PA Supreme Court (an odd numbered year election). In addition, the DNC in Philadelphia and online voter registration could help with mobilizing minorities and college students. I’m hoping someone in the democratic camp thinks to look into utilizing uber/lyft apps popular with younger voters (especially in urban areas) to drive up voter turnout further. Hillary is popular with minorities, so I think this would be wise to get a group less excited about her to the polls.

  8. This is nonsense.
    First of all Toomey has been a very influential and successful Senator
    Second, the Dem’s don’t have a viable candidate to run against him
    Third the energy that won’t go to Trump will go to Senate races out of necessity

  9. Toomey is a nightmare for PA all by himself. Voters need to divorce him from this important office.

  10. All Americans need to divorce themselves from Donald Trump and the entire GOP clown car.

  11. The Republican party has just filed for divorce against Donald Trump.In November, they won’t be able to claim “no fault.” watch what you wish for, reality is very persistent.

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