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PA-Sen: Toomey’s Race Ranked #5 Most Vulnerable

Pat-ToomeySenator Pat Toomey is vulnerable but not as susceptible to defeat as he was just a few months ago.

That is the consensus of the National Journal when they examined the PA Senate race as part of their individual rankings.

The writers classified Sen. Toomey as being in the fifth most vulnerable race, although he fared better than several of his colleagues.

For instance, there are six races in 2016 where a Republican seat in a blue state is up for grabs. Only Senator Rob Portman of Ohio is considered in a safer spot (#7) than PA’s junior Senator. Meanwhile, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s open seat, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk and Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson take the top four spots ahead of Toomey.

“Democrats might be stuck with a nominee the party’s leaders plainly don’t want: Joe Sestak,” the National Journal writes. “The 2010 nominee lost to Toomey by just two points in an dreadful year for Democrats, but his stubborn personality and eccentric style have them yearning for an alternative.”

“Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Jon Tester and incoming Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly each called Josh Shapiro, a longtime rising star in the party, to see if he was interested in running, but political insiders in the state think he’s more likely to run for attorney general,” they continue. “The list of of other options is sparse — Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski is seen as a long-shot contender. Attorney General Kathleen Kane, whom Democrats considered their Toomey-slayer just a few short years ago, is under threat of imminent indictment. Toomey, meanwhile, has raised a lot of money [and] has worked hard since arriving in office to moderate his once sharply conservative image. This is a state Democrats should win in a presidential year, but it’s in danger of sliding away.”

The 2016 map features 24 GOP seats in contention while just 10 Democratic seats have to be defended. This is the result of the lopsided Republican victories in 2010, when the Grand Old Party won six seats. The Democrats will need to win four seats in 2016 to regain the majority (five seats if they lose the presidency and the VP’s tie-breaking vote).

8 Responses

  1. Toomey is no ,’moderate’. He is an extreme Neoconservative, who spent years purging moderates from the Republican Party, as the chief of “The Club For Growth. ”
    He is a slightly less obnoxious Rick Santorum.
    Toomey was a banker in Hong, Kong, and got his start as a protégé of Newt Gingrich.
    His total sponsorship of TPP, and Fast Track stands against all Pennsylvanians.
    Toomey and his kind, stand for perpetual war abroad, and poverty at home.

    But if the hapless Sestak, or obtuse Pawleski is the Democrats choice,Toomey will slip in again.

  2. National journal is probably an unreliable source….unless you like bill gates…

  3. Marshak is right, this list is especially irrelevant to PA given the current Dem field.

  4. He’s only in trouble if the Dems find a legitimate candidate to run against him. And so far all you’ve got is Sestak or Pawlowski.

  5. Toomey is in more trouble than this article would have readers believe. National Journal really thinks he is safer than moderate Ron Kirk running in Illinois?

  6. Senator Toomey’s position on Fast Track Trade Authority for President Obama will be interesting. Organized Labor is a powerful force in Pennsylvania and is opposed to this legislation. Senator Toomey supports Free Trade which raises the standard of living of both the importer and exporter, however, there are many flaws in the proposed legislation from both the view of the Unions as well as the principled grassroots. Senator Toomey is very, very smart guy and we look forward to his analysis and statement of position. I am quite sure Sen. Toomey is well aware of the complexity of the issue.

    In addition to the issues raised in The Hill article, there are principled grassroots reasons to oppose this bill as well.

    14 things you have to know about fast track Americans for Limited Government 27 April 2015

  7. Sure he does. He even tried to get some gun control legislation passed. Watch him tell us all about that, again and again.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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