PA1: Politico Moves Fitzpatrick Race from Toss-Up To Leans Republican

The race is moving in the incumbent’s favor, according to the most recent updated version of Politico’s 2020 Election Forecast

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-Bucks) reelection bid in the 1st Congressional District has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the ratings update published on Friday

Politico cites the Democratic field seeking to unseat Fitzpatrick as the reason the ratings moved in his favor. 

“Democrats don’t have a highly touted recruit to run against GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents a Bucks County-based district Hillary Clinton carried in 2016,” the update writes. 

Christina Finello, an Ivyland Borough Councilwoman who has been endorsed by the Bucks County Democratic Party, and Skylar Hurwitz, a technology entrepreneur and small business owner who has been endorsed by Our Revolution Pennsylvania, are the two Democrats vying for the party nomination. However, Fitzpatrick is still set to face another pro-Trump Republican in the upcoming GOP primary in financial advisor Andrew Meehan.

Fitzpatrick, who is currently serving his second term in Congress in a district that narrowly went to Sec. Hillary Clinton in 2016, bested Democrat Scott Wallace by just over 2.5 points in 2018. 

The most recent update also provided good news for another fellow incumbent in the Philadelphia suburbs – Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester). The 2020 Election Forecast moved her race in the 6th Congressional District from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. 

As a result of Fitzpatrick’s race moving to Leans Republican, the lone Congressional race in the state that is still listed in their Toss-Up category is Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid in the 10th Congressional District. 

Although Perry’s reelection bid is the only toss-up according to Politico, they have five races in the state in the leans category for the incumbent which include the reelection bids of Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Fitzpatrick, Mike Kelly (R-Butler), Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny), and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh). 

The presidential race in Pennsylvania is still listed as a Toss-Up as well. 

Politico’s Pennsylvania ratings can be found here.

10 Responses

  1. This CD is tough to predict. It really depends on where the outsized turnout comes from. The burbs or rural areas? The fact that there is no “name” candidate for the D’s is pretty much meaningless right now. Fitz did survive in 18 though. We will have to see how things look in Nov.

  2. Fitz will be defeated. Just ask Kendra Horn who was written off in Oklahoma City as a Dem and she won in the reddest of red states for Congress. He is not in tune with Bucks County anymore that is trending blue more and more. Trump will slide in numbers and be an anchor to Republican candidates in November. Fitz will lose. Dem will win his seat in Congress.

  3. How did those highly touted prior Dem candidates work out? Now we have a homegrown candidate with name recognition in key areas. Don’t write this one off. D triple C are idiots

  4. Fitzpatrick voted against impeachment, and for the GOP Tax Scam. He voted with Trump policy 85% of the time in the last congressional session, and still continues to vote Trump policy a majority of the time, in spite of his whiplash-inducing lunge to the center and faux-bipartisanship as the 2020 election approaches.

    He lied about the US being on track to a South Korean outcome with COVID19 when on a conservative talk program, selectively misleading that proTrump audience, and earning a HalfTruth/2 Pinnochio rating from Politifact.

    1. I do not doubt your facts but in certain areas of the CD, those things will be a strength for Fitz. His real issue is if he seems soft for the Trumpiest of Trumpers. He really cannot afford to lose any of their support. He will get very little from the D’s obviously. He needs huge turnout with Trumpers so expect him to go even further in that direction.

  5. Shouldn’t the candidates we known before predicting a winner? Leaning GOP? Wait until Trump falls over and takes entire GOP down with him.

      1. I am honestly already saddened by the stories I know we will be reading in a few weeks. Such massive ignorance.

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