PA10: ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research Poll: Rep. Perry 49 Scott 46
A new ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research poll shows incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) holding a slim lead over Democrat George Scott in the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. The poll has Perry leading Scott 49-46, while 4% remain undecided and 1% said another candidate.
ABC27 describes this race as a “close contest” between Perry and Scott with just a week until the election. 366 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll, 39% from Dauphin County, 36% from Cumberland County, and 25% from York County from Oct 19-21. The margin of error is +/- 5.2% at “the 95% confidence level.”
The newly drawn 10th district went to President Trump by nearly 10 points in the 2016 election, but the polling shows mixed reviews for Trump. Trump still holds a +5 positive net approval rating in the district, with 48% approving of his job performance, 43% disapproving, 7% no opinion and 2% no response. However, when asked if the likely voters would prefer their Congressional representative to either champion the Trump agenda or to be a check on his policies, a majority of voters preferred the latter. 52% polled prefer that their member of Congress would “stand up to Trump and be a check and balance on his policies,” while 45% prefer their representative to “work closely with Trump to advance his agenda,” and 3% hold no opinion.
Those polled were also nearly split down the middle on the current direction of the country. 46% believe the country is gotten on the wrong track, while 45% believe the country is going in the right direction, with 5% not responding and 4% that are undecided/no opinion.
A majority of those polled are registered as Republicans, although that margin thins out a bit when they were asked about how they see themselves while considering political issues.
53% polled said they were registered Republican, 38% were registered Democrats, 6% Independent, and 3% not responding to that question. When asked how they identify with political issues, 40% said they see themselves standing with Republicans, while Democrats and Independents were deadlocked at 30% each on how the likely voters identified as on political issues.
58% polled were female and 42% were male.
This poll was conducted around the same time the New York Times/Siena College polled the district. Their poll shows the incumbent Republican also holding a slight lead of 2 points, 45-43.
FiveThirtyEight currently has the race listed as Leans Republican and the second closest Congressional race in the state of Pennsylvania.
The full data for the ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research can be found here.