Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman changed the ratings of five seats this morning, including Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) re-election bid against Democrat George Scott.
President Trump only won the reconfigured PA10 by 9 points, and the Democratic challenger’s “military background” and “status as a political outsider” made the political analyst change his PA10 rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
“At least several Keystone State Republicans are concerned that Perry, a three-term Freedom Caucus member, remains unprepared for a fight in a Harrisburg district that was redrawn in February to be much more competitive and is 41 percent new to him. Under the old lines, President Trump won Perry’s seat by 22 points. But under the new lines, Trump won it by just 52 percent to 43 percent,” Wasserman wrote.
He also mentioned Scott’s fundraising, as well as his background as a retired Army officer and pastor who makes the matchup more competitive against Perry, an Iraq War veteran and former state legislator.
Wasserman added a caveat: Perry could probably use Scott’s primary ad against him, in which Scott details his military service, but throws rifles onto a bonfire while the ad calls for “mandatory background checks” and “ban assault rifles meant for war”.
Scott won the Democratic nomination with 36% of the vote.
“If Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey win comfortably at the top of the ticket, this race could fly under the radar and feel the effects,” Wasserman concluded.
The full Cook analysis can be found here.