The New York Times/Siena College completed their live poll for the race in the newly drawn 10th Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) and Democratic challenger George Scott. Their poll shows the incumbent Perry leading Scott 45-43 with 12% undecided after 498 people responded to the 12,157 calls made. The New York Times posed the question if redistricting made this previously conservative district a competitive one. The poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 26. The margin of error +/- 4.7%.
The candidates are deadlocked on favorability rating, while the incumbent holds a slightly higher unfavorable view among voters, with more voters not having an opinion on the Democrat.
44% view Perry favorably, 34% view him unfavorably, while 22% don’t know. 44% also view Scott favorably, while his unfavorable rating is 29%, and 27% still “don’t know.”
The newly drawn 10th district went to President Trump in 2016 by nearly 10 points, which is much more favorable to the Democrats considering Trump won by 20+ points in the previous boundaries Perry represented. The New York Times writes that “perhaps no Republican was more surprised by the new redistricting map than Mr. Perry.” Approximately 40% of the newly drawn district is new to Perry.
Although Trump won the district by close to a double digit margin over Sec. Hillary Clinton, he has a split approval rating in the district currently. 47% approve and disapprove of Trump’s job performance as President, while 5% don’t know. Despite the district’s mixed views on Trump, they still prefers a GOP controlled Congress. 50% polled would prefer that the Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives, while 43% would like to see the Democrats regain a majority and 6% don’t know.
The New York Times noted that although Perry does hold a slim, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently invested $260,000 into the race.
The full data can be found here.