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PA11: ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research Poll: Rep. Smucker 50 King 46

A new ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research poll shows incumbent Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) holding a four point lead over Democratic challenger Jess King in the race for Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District. The poll has Smucker leading King 50-46, while 3% remain undecided and 1% said another candidate.

ABC27 describes this as a “slim lead” for Smucker in the GOP friendly district. 311 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll, 74% from Lancaster County and 26% from York County from Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is +/- 5.6% at “the 95% confidence level.”   

The newly drawn 11th district went to President Donald Trump by over 25 points in the 2016 election, but the polling indicates he is not as popular there as he was just two years ago. Those polled were split down the middle, 49-49 on his job performance with 2% answering “neutral” or “no opinion.” A majority of likely voters polled prefer their Congressional representative to “stand up to Trump and be a check and balance on his policies,” at 53%, while 43% want their member of Congress to “work closely with Trump to advance his agenda,” and 2% staying neutral or no opinion.   

Those polled were also divided on the current direction of the country. 49% believe the country has gotten on the wrong track, while 47% believe the country is heading in the right direction and 4% stating they are undecided/no opinion.

A majority of those polled in this red district are registered Republicans, although when likely voters were asked about how they see themselves while considering political issues a significant number see themselves as “Independent/Unaffiliated.” 54% polled said they were registered Republicans, 38% were registered Democrats, and 8% registered Independent. When asked how they see themselves while considering political issues, 40% identify as Republican, 31% as Independent/Unaffiliated, 27% as Democrats and 2% not responding to that question.   

53% polled were female and 47% were male.

ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research released another poll a day prior showing another close contest in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District with incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) with a 3 point lead over Democrat George Scott.

FiveThirtyEight currently has this race listed as Likely Republican.

The full data for the ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research can be found here.

8 Responses

  1. A lead which barely covers half the margin is known as a statistical dead heat. Team Jess has run an unbelievable campaign, and Schmucks ads are hilarious Don’t forget Jess and Mamcy are gonna get you addicted to heroin! Jess pulls a well deserved and monumental upset, and will be due to both candidates demeanor and hard work or lack thereof.

  2. I am a Republican and I will vote for Jess King because she is the better candidate. Over the past 2 years I have communicated with Congressman Smucker’s office and the responses have been mediocre at best. I have fact checked his mailings to me and his statements are not factual but they manipulate information to fit the President’s thinking and actions. It is time for Smucker to go.

  3. I think the poll only outlines what has been in the works for awhile but got sidelined by the Kavanaugh matter which is that there is a bubbling sea change in the political winds that will translate to a major victory for Dems and an equally major loss for R’s. It’s gonna be a really really bad night for Pa R’s on Nov 6th and all of it will be at the doorstep of Trump mania. Trump soley is the inspiration for the soon to be massive and I mean massive Wolf and Casey wins. This energy will spill over to PA House races where R’s like Smucker go down to shocking defeat. This is going a blue wave big time.

  4. Yea, having trouble believing this one. I am familiar with that area. This doesn’t sound right to me. However, if that is even within 5 points of being accurate, then the GOP is in for an extremely long and painful night on Tuesday in PA.

  5. Susquehanna Polling is the equivalent of the Oakland Raiders for the polling industry, they occasionally get lucky and get a win but for the most part they just down right suck.

  6. Have you ever been to Lancaster or Southern York County? To say 53% of the people their want their congressperson to “stand up to Trump” is laughable at best.

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