PA8: ABC27/SP&R Poll: Rep. Cartwright 57 Chrin 40

A new ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research poll shows Democratic incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright holding a 17 point lead over GOP challenger John Chrin in the race for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District. The poll shows Cartwright leading 57-40, while 2% remain undecided and 1% saying they are supporting another candidate.

ABC27 describes Cartwright as “close to winning re-election” for a fourth term in Congress. 446 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll from Oct. 28-29. Most of those polled were from two of the five counties. 40% were from Lackawanna County, 39% from Luzerne County, 9% from Wayne County, 6% from Monroe County and 5% from Pike County. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.6% at “the 95% confidence level.”  

The numbers in this poll don’t provide positive numbers for President Donald Trump, although he won the district by nearly 10 points in 2016. 55% disapprove of Trump’s job performance as President, while 42% approve, 2% staying neutral or having no opinion and 1% not responding to that question. The margin even widens a bit more when those polled were asked if they’d prefer their Congressional representative to “stand up to Trump and be a check and balance on his policies,” with 57% selecting that, while 42% would like their member of Congress to “work closely with Trump to advance his agenda,” and 1% have no opinion. 54% polled believe the country has gotten on the wrong track, while 42% believe the country is heading in the right direction, with those remaining neutral/no opinion to that question amounted to 4%.

Registered Democrats significantly outweighed registered Republicans in this poll, although when likely voters were asked about how they see themselves while considering political issues, the numbers were nearly deadlocked between the Dems, GOP and Independents. 56% polled were registered Democrats, 38% were registered Republicans, while 5% are Independents and 1% didn’t respond to that question. When asked how they see themselves while considering political issues, only 35% consider identify as Democrats, while 34% identify as Independent/Unaffiliated, 30% identifying as Republicans and 1% not responding to that question.

53% polled were female, 44% were male and 3% did not respond to that question.

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted over a week ago shows Cartwright holding a double digit lead, but not as substantial of an advantage compared to this poll. The NYT/Siena College poll had Cartwright up 52-40. The biggest difference from the NYT/Siena College poll compared to this new ABC27/SP&R poll is that Trump holds a 48% job approval rating, while 46% disapproved. The President’s numbers are much more positive in the NYT/Siena College Poll.

FiveThirtyEight currently has the race listed as Solid Democratic.

The full data for the ABC27/SP&R poll can be found here.

8 Responses

  1. Cartwright has this one. I think some folks over in our Northeast counties were either not too enthused about Hillary and gave Trump a chance – his celebrity helped.

    But when you take away the celebrity and the novelty fades – you end up with pure nastiness, embodied by politicians like Wagner and Barletta.

    Northeast PA is a very friendly family oriented place that looks to getting good things from their politicians.

    Congressman Kanjorski was an excellent representative of NEPA and its values – a pretty decent rep.

    I think Matt Cartwright reflects that area well – and when the celebrity and novelty mask is taken off the Trunpublican Party, the people up there will not tolerate it for long.

    Anyway – remember – Trump won this state by a thread. Its not the year 2016 forever.

    1. Matt Cartwirght is about as useful as a bag of rocks. Kanjorski was awful but at least he brought money back to the area, Cartwright can’t even do that. Nothing like giving a guy over 150k a year to do absolutely nothing. We as tax payers should be embarrassed that he is the one representing us in Washington.

  2. This might just be demonstrative that people really don’t like carpetbaggers like Chrin, but I hope it portends something much bigger on Tuesday.

  3. Agreed with KDav but would also add that 2016 was a unique moment in time for Trump with the political planets all aligning for a Trump victory. Trump took working class counties like Lackawanna and Luzerne and made them Republican by considerable margins. Why? Well, it was 2016 and folks were frustrated over many issues and Hillary just failed to connect and Trump did click! Folks like Chrin and Wagner and Lou Barletta grossly misread the tea leaves seeing Luzerne and Lackawanna as new solid red and that was completely wrong. Chrin spent millions making a bad bet that the boilerplate somewhat contrived “sanctuary cities” issue and “caravans” would make political hay and it did not. If this poll is right (and I have no reason to believe otherwise)–the political seasons are changing and Trump could be a one term President. Very easy to see that especially if Biden runs.

    1. Agree with everything you typed except I think it is too early to draw any conclusions about 20 and Joe B.

  4. If the internals are accurate (and I am not saying they are – I have no idea), then the GOP is in big trouble. Luzerne and Lackawanna were what the GOP was pointing to in the Summer of 16 as there was “something going on out there”. Many of us (myself included) didn’t give it much credence. It turned out to be a harbinger and illustrated the type of place where Trump turned the tide.

    Again, if these #’s are accurate it could mean that there is a systemic polling error and that the Dems could do much better than expected Tuesday night. It also means that Trump can get away with things no one else, in either party, could even dream about.

    Interesting. There is a really wide band of possibilities that could happen Tuesday. Anywhere from a 12 seat D gain to 50+ seats. The Sen is tighter. I think +1 is the best D’s could hope for with the base case being R+1 or 2.

    This is much different than 06 or 10. In those cases it was obvious what was coming unless you chose to not live in reality. This election you can make a case for your side and not be living in fantasy land. *Unless you have R’s making gains in the House. Then you are hopeless.

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