A new ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research poll shows Democratic incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright holding a 17 point lead over GOP challenger John Chrin in the race for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District. The poll shows Cartwright leading 57-40, while 2% remain undecided and 1% saying they are supporting another candidate.
ABC27 describes Cartwright as “close to winning re-election” for a fourth term in Congress. 446 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll from Oct. 28-29. Most of those polled were from two of the five counties. 40% were from Lackawanna County, 39% from Luzerne County, 9% from Wayne County, 6% from Monroe County and 5% from Pike County. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.6% at “the 95% confidence level.”
The numbers in this poll don’t provide positive numbers for President Donald Trump, although he won the district by nearly 10 points in 2016. 55% disapprove of Trump’s job performance as President, while 42% approve, 2% staying neutral or having no opinion and 1% not responding to that question. The margin even widens a bit more when those polled were asked if they’d prefer their Congressional representative to “stand up to Trump and be a check and balance on his policies,” with 57% selecting that, while 42% would like their member of Congress to “work closely with Trump to advance his agenda,” and 1% have no opinion. 54% polled believe the country has gotten on the wrong track, while 42% believe the country is heading in the right direction, with those remaining neutral/no opinion to that question amounted to 4%.
Registered Democrats significantly outweighed registered Republicans in this poll, although when likely voters were asked about how they see themselves while considering political issues, the numbers were nearly deadlocked between the Dems, GOP and Independents. 56% polled were registered Democrats, 38% were registered Republicans, while 5% are Independents and 1% didn’t respond to that question. When asked how they see themselves while considering political issues, only 35% consider identify as Democrats, while 34% identify as Independent/Unaffiliated, 30% identifying as Republicans and 1% not responding to that question.
53% polled were female, 44% were male and 3% did not respond to that question.
A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted over a week ago shows Cartwright holding a double digit lead, but not as substantial of an advantage compared to this poll. The NYT/Siena College poll had Cartwright up 52-40. The biggest difference from the NYT/Siena College poll compared to this new ABC27/SP&R poll is that Trump holds a 48% job approval rating, while 46% disapproved. The President’s numbers are much more positive in the NYT/Siena College Poll.
FiveThirtyEight currently has the race listed as Solid Democratic.
The full data for the ABC27/SP&R poll can be found here.