A second House race in Pennsylvania is listed as a “toss-up” according to the latest ratings from the election analysts at the Cook Political Report.
Rep. Matt Cartwright’s (D-Lackawanna) race in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District has moved from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up. The rating change for the fourth term Congressman comes as a result of him joining the rest of the Democrats in the state in voting for both articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump.
Cartwright won his most recent reelection bid over GOP businessman, John Chrin, in 2018 by 9 points in the newly drawn congressional boundaries that voted for Trump by 10 points in 2016, making it the most Trump friendly seat held by a Democrat in the state.
Despite Cartwright’s nearly double digit victory in 2018, the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman writes that 2020 “could be a vastly different story” adding that Trump will be on the ballot in the upcoming election and outside GOP groups American Action Network and America First Policies are “on track to spend millions” in the Scranton market.
Another development in the race that played a role in the ratings change was the entrance of Earl Granville, a decorated war veteran and Veterans’ advocate. While serving in Afghanistan, Granville suffered severe battlefield wounds and had his left leg amputated. Wasserman writes that Republicans “may have a candidate out of central casting,” with Granville in the race, saying that he “could be a much better fit for working-class voters than the wealthy Chrin.”
Entering election day in 2018, the Cook Political Report had Cartwright’s race against Chrin as Likely Democrat.
Cartwright’s district and Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District represented by Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) are the two races in the state currently listed as a toss-up. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) is the next closest race in the state with the race rated as Leans Republican.
Three Republicans thus far have formally announced a bid for the seat. In August, Teddy Daniels, a former police officer and wounded combat Army veteran, was the first Republican to launch a bid for the seat, while Luzerne County Councilman Harry Haas joined the race in October and Granville formally announcing a bid in December.
Cartwright is still currently the only Democrat that has filed paperwork to run for this seat in 2020.
The latest Cook report ratings is here.
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11 Responses
Daniels is the only guy who can win. Granville just switched parties to run. Is a phony and hates Trump. Has ties to the McCain family. Being used as a puppet.
You are going to be eating crow when the DC PAC machine and the Trumps come out in support of Earl. You’ll see. Bolus gang will an oh wow moment when they realize who encouraged Earl to run. Granville will be the one to beat Cartwright.
I heard Granville was an Independent when serving which is common with military personnel, but then he became an R and, in time, also Trump supporter. If he was more of a centrist before that means he’s the guy to defeat Cartwright in the general election. You got to get the D Trump vote that went Cartwright and Granville can do it.
I predict that what is going to happen in 2020 is Trump fatigue. People are getting tired of his 100 unhinged tweets a day nonsense. He is a nut and the Republicans selling out their souls to him will sink them in 2020. Also, what happened to the GOP being all concerned about deficits and the federal government debt???? It’s ok to run up deficits to hand out corporate welfare, but do something for the middle class? Nooooooo
Totally agree. A FAR SUPERIOR political newsletter Inside Elections “DOES NOT” have the Cartwright race a toss up and as of the December 19th issue which I received today by the way–Inside Elections has Cartwright in the “Likely Democratic” category which is one step from “Solid Democratic.” The problem with politics is that folks see what they want and disregard the rest and Trump fatigue will not allow congressional races to eclipse the Presidential race.
Seems people forget part of the 8th was the old 10th CD. Remember Carney signed up for Obamacare and that was the end of him? Marino wipped his butt by 10 points. Also part of the 8th is part of Barletta’s CD.
Cartwright, has been a do nothing Congressman who has voted over 90% of the time with Pelosi. The ad buys by Republicans will crush him, if they already haven’t. Nope, Allentown ain’t saving Cartwright this time.
So you think voting for better health care including protecting those with pre-existing conditions, for a higher minimum wage, cleaner air & water, supporting the 9/11 victims and heroes, opposing violence against women, protecting the vote, opposing discrimination against women who become pregnant, opposing anti-Semitism, keeping Russia out of the G7 are bad things just because Pelosi also voted for them? Really?
The real do nothing part of Congress is Moscow Mitch and the GOP Senate
Granville is a Trump nut, I have met him. Daniels, nobody has met. Haas, a nice guy, not evil enough to win the primary. They all make Chrin look good. Too many rational Republicans will vote for Cartwright.
Never happen, see my post. I presume you are a rational Democrat?
Maybe the truth will get through to PA voters? Or will the Russian propaganda machine overwhelm what sense they have of decency?
Dave Wasserman is such a hack, tho