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PAGOP Poll: Obama 48, Romney 47

The Pa. Republican Party will release an internal poll on Thursday that shows Mitt Romney within 1 point of Barack Obama.

The survey was conducted on Sept. 17. by Susquehanna Polling and Research, a firm commonly used by Pa. Republicans.

According to the average of public polling compiled by Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Romney in Pa. by 8.3 percent, 49 percent to 40.7. Republicans have spent the past week pushing back against signs, including a lack of TV ads, that the state is falling out of play. Last week, Gov. Tom Corbett and Sen. Pat Toomey each insisted that internal polls are more telling than public ones.

We’ll bring you more details on the poll including methodology when they are available tomorrow.

16 Responses

  1. Do all the naysayers know what party the current current PA govenor belongs to? Or one of the senators? But if you believe it’s over, well then you won’t have to vote. Feel free to stay home on election day.

  2. Pa is a winnable state. Someone in Boston is asleep at the wheel. Ground game should start in earnest right now, building toward the first debate on October 3. Thereafter an all out assault on the “T” and the Southwest with an aggressive push for SEPA/Philly suburbs. It has been done, it can be done now. The Pa Victory folks have got to be biting their collective nails wondering why the calvalry has not shown up…it’s a terrible waste of talent. Especially in the Southeast and Southwest.

  3. It is a terrible thing about the loss of mining jobs here in PA what with the EPA under Obama all but outlawing coal.
    Thankfully, this will allow many people in those areas to see with their own eyes what four more years of Obama look like.
    Yeah, Romney/ Ryan!! The turnaround team!!

  4. Ronald Reagan won Pennsylvania three times. HWBush ran as Reagan’s successor and, as we soon found out, he was not what we thought. It may happen with the Obama Democrats who have seen BHObama extend Bush’s bad policies of spending, debt and deficit.

    It is very likely that Romney/Ryan can win Pennsylvania because it is apparent to anyone except hacks and ideologues that the Bush/Obama Big Government policies of trillions of dollars of spending, debt and deficit are not working.

    Even CNN tells us that there are fewer people employed now than when BHObama took office.

    The Democrats took control of US House and US Senate and 18 months later financial meltdown and bank bailouts, and from Jan 2009 to Jan 2011, the Democrats had control of House, Senate and Executive and the trillions spent did not increase productivity or reduce unemployment. Republican control of the House has not done much to slow either debt or deficit.

    The Bush policies of big spending, big debt and big deficit set the stage for Obama’s even bigger spending, bigger debt, bigger deficits (and the Federal Reserve has cooperated nicely).

    Why would BHObama continue GWBush’s bad tax policies, bad spending policies, bad deficit policies, bad debt policies? Why would anyone but an Progressive ideologue or union hack think this is a good idea?

    It seems voter are beginning to catch on.

  5. I too miss the Hugh Scott, Heinz, Scranton Republicans.

    Compared to todays Republican I think I might even miss Ronald Reagan

  6. Must have used the same math Romney and the Ryan Budget use to say that they can further cut taxes by another 20%, substantially increase defense spending, save Social Security and Medicare, and reduce the national debt.

    Bush 41 called it Voodoo Economics

    In layman’s terms its BS math and BS poll results.

    Guess they didn’t count the 47%

  7. You’re dead-on 100% correct Wolf. If the GOP embraced the likes of Thornburgh, Schweiker, Scranton, Specter and other like minded moderates then I’d still be a Republican today. Instead the GOP takes its marching orders from conservative radicals like Limbaugh and Hannity and now the party has gone so far to the right that I have no place in it because I believe that government can help make people lives better. There are other Republicans who agree with me but right now nobody is willing to stand up to these conservative radicals and Tea Party morons. The GOP would be better off if we got rid of conservatives and tried to persuade Blue Dogs to come to our side. After Romney loses I don’t see how conservatives and moderates can co-exist under the GOP flag.

  8. There is no way Romney can carry Pennsylvania.I come from the old moderate GOP in the state.The former respected party of Thornburgh,Schweiker,Heinz,Scranton,and Specter.The time when conservatives were rational,and unifying like Reagan.The GOP today, is dead in the cities,of PA,dying in the Philadelphia suburbs,and is all rural.The older voters are terrified of Romney Ryan,and the struggling,who know they all for the rich.Obama will come out of the South East which includes Philly with a crushing,record breaking margin.The days of a small GOP cushion in the cities,and offset on the main line went out the window,as the extremists came into the party in the 90’s.

  9. If this was truly within one point, you would see both campaigns all over television and both candidates and their running mates here frequently. Fact is, neither campaign sees this state in play and their actions speak louder than anything else.

    I know several GOP operatives who are very upset over this as they would like to see more than just a ground game, which doesn’t work as well for them here since they are outnumbered. Media is the way to reach the undecideds and independents who may still be persuadable.

    Now with Voter ID very possibly on the chopping block, any chance for the GOP to keep this in the ballpark will go right out the window if the implementation of the law is delayed.

  10. If Romney is the worst presidential candidate in generations, it’s a good thing he’s running against the worst president in US history.

    I trust the internal polls, especially since I live in PA and it matches what I see on the ground.

    But my, oh, my…the left certainly is desperate to claim this race is over, aren’t they? They’ll be devastated on election night when Obama loses and it’s not even that close.

  11. Put up or shut up — When the GOP starts running a full-scale ad campaign in Pa. again, have R&R make frequent stops here and resume acting like this is a state they actually think they can win, i will believe it.

    Personally, I wish they would waste their time and money here instead of going after a legitimate swing state they might have a chance to win, but I don’t see that happening.

    Follow the candidates – and the money – if you want to know what states are truly competitive. Everything else from both sides is just a smokescreen.

  12. While I am always skeptical of internal polls, Susquehanna has a good track record. They nailed the 2010 statewide races and also nailed the PA-12 special election in 2010.

  13. Wishful thinking on the GOP’s part. Mitten lost PA, and will lose Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, and most likely Florida. It’s all over for the worst presidential candidate in generations.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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