The good news is we have a new poll in the Philly Mayoral Democratic Primary. The bad news is it’s still not one from an independent, non-partisan institution.
We can only work with what we have, however, and that is a new survey from AFSCME (they are supporting Jim Kenney) that was conducted by GBA Strategies.
They found ex-Councilman Kenney holding a one-point lead, 26% to 25%, over State Senator Anthony Williams 26% to 25%. Former DA Lynne Abraham is a close third with 22%.
No results for Doug Oliver, Nelson Diaz and Milton Street were given, although 18% of respondents are undecided. So, either the three candidates received a combined 9% of support or they weren’t included in the poll.
The survey did, however, break down the contest by race.
Among black voters, Williams receives 39% compared to Abraham’s 17% and Kenney’s 13%. For white voters, Kenney leads Abraham by a 43% to 30% margin while Williams receives 9%.
Also, Kenney leads Williams 37% to 23% among voters who regularly turn out in city elections.
Finally, each of the top three candidate’s name ID and favorability ratings were tested.
Eighty-four percent of respondents had heard of Abraham with forty-three percent giving her a favorable rating and twenty-six percent an unfavorable rating.
Meanwhile, Williams had a 74% name ID with a 40/17 favorable/unfavorable split.
Intriguingly, the poll’s leader Kenney had the lowest name ID (64%). His favorability rating was 40% while his unfavorability rating was 13%.
GBA Strategies conducted a survey of 587 likely Democratic primary voters on April 9-15, 2015 on behalf of AFSCME. More than 1-in-4 interviews were conducted via cell phone. This survey carries a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
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Kenny was a no-show at Murphy’s Saloonery in East Falls last Tuesday night despite making a commitment. Should I read into that? Can he not honor commitments? Does he dismiss the Northwest?
Any poll that has Anthony Williams getting less than 85% (more likely he will get more than 90%) of the African American vote is African American candidates.
It appears this race is Senator Williams if black voters coalesce and turn out on election day the way they historically perform.
Does Abraham have enough money for the final month?
Will she suffer another mishap that raises questions about her health?
The Honorable Sen Milton Street is the Best person to be Mayor of Philly He was a Hard working Senator and a Hard working Businessman . Uncle Milty deserves your Vote
Would take this with a grain of salt. The validity of a poll commissioned by an organization that is openly backing one of the candidates is highly questionable. To me this poll means absolutely nothing other than that Williams is probably ahead 5 points and the Kenney folks want to show a very different narrative to help with fundraising and such.
Williams peaked a year ago. It’s been all downhill since then.
Kenney has peaked. Abraham will have her say. Then williams comes on right on time to snatch victory
The likely voter double digit lead for Kenney coupled with room to grow on name ID for him makes this very positive news for him indeed. For the others, not so much.