Politically Uncorrected: Katie’s Time

Katie_McGintyIf a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

The jury is still out on that old chestnut and may continue to be out indefinitely.

But here’s an easier one: What if the Pennsylvania Democratic Party holds a U. S. Senate primary and (almost) no candidates show up? What happens then?

That one is easier both because it might happen and also because the answer is not an epistemological puzzle. The answer is this: national Democrats as well as state Democrats lose big.

They lose because the still embryonic 2016 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race remains one of the ten top national races that will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Democrats need the Pennsylvania seat to win back the Senate as well as at least four other seats.

Losing Pennsylvania almost certainly means failure to gain control of the Senate. Even if Democrats win the presidency in 2016 it will seem a hollow win if Congress stays in GOP control.

The stakes could not be higher.

Democrats, however, are not without hope; they believe their one million plus registration edge will help defeat the Republican incumbent Pat Toomey, especially because more of their voters will turnout and because of the decline of ticket splitting given the increased polarization of the electorate.

But 15 months from Election Day, those still hopeful Democrats don’t yet have a candidate they think can win.

The candidate they do have-Joe Sestak-is a former Congressman, Navy officer, and 2010 nominee who narrowly lost to Toomey. A substantial number of Democratic Party officials don’t think he can raise enough money to win in 2016, don’t think he can run a successful campaign, don’t think he is a good fit for the party and don’t like him very much-in many cases, don’t like him at all. His iconoclastic style has left him estranged from many.

Consequently, Democrats have been scrambling to find someone to challenge Sestak, win the party nomination and defeat Toomey in the fall election. A bevy of prominent Democrats were once mentioned, including former Congresswomen Allison Schwartz, Attorney General Kathleen Kane, and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. None of them worked out.

Ultimately, national Democrats including Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and Senator Chuck Schumer tried to recruit Josh Shapiro, a talented Montgomery County Commissioner to take on Sestak. He also declined.

For some time it looked like Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski would provide a primary opponent, but he suddenly suspended his campaign earlier this month amid an FBI investigation into Allentown’s contracting practices.

Are state Democrats out of luck and out of time?

They certainly are almost out of time. Modern campaigns require money, a work force, and the time to create an organization. The clock is ticking louder and louder.

But Democrats may not yet be out of luck. Sitting in the wings may be one of the most formidable candidates they could run against Toomey. And she hasn’t said no!

One Kathleen McGinty – “Katie” to most – has been hiding in plain sight while Democrats fumbled around looking for a candidate. While holding down a day job as chief-of-staff to Governor Tom Wolf, she brings an impressive resume and long list of accomplishments to the table. A former advisor to President Clinton, she also served as the Chairwoman of the Council of Environmental Advisors, Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and a candidate for governor of Pennsylvania in 2014.

Numerous press reports are confirming that Democratic leaders have now approached her about running – perhaps getting into the race by late summer.

How realistic is a late McGinty candidacy? Some Democrats reluctantly believe Sestak has the primary wrapped up by now, while others doubt a challenger will still appear.

Doom and gloom pervade Democratic circles about this race.

It shouldn’t.

If McGinty does run, she will be formidable, the beneficiary of political forces emerging over the past quarter century, dating back to Lynn Yeakel’s 1992 narrow senate loss to Arlen Specter in “the year of the woman.” A palpable hunger exists for women candidates for major office in Pennsylvania. Then, too, it is likely Hillary Clinton will head the Democratic ticket in 2016, auguring auspiciously both for high Democratic turnout and for an electorate favoring women candidates.

Moreover, if McGinty runs she will have Wolf’s support, which will mean significant financial assistance as well as the support of the Wolf organization. More help will come from national Democrats while several state party leaders including the powerful Congressman Bob Brady have already offered support.  Against Sestak she may have a clear path to victory running with the enthusiastic support of the party against a self-styled maverick with little party support.

Finally, McGinty is a smart, talented and savvy politician who knows her way around both Washington and Harrisburg and will bring energy to a campaign sorely lacking it so far.

GOP incumbent Pat Toomey, despite his conservative leanings and the registration edge against him, will be very hard to beat in 2016. Katie McGinty might do it – and at this point, she could be the only one who can.

5 Responses

  1. McGinty will be an excellent choice for Penna. Her political philosophy will allow us to continue to be outpaced in manufacturing job creation by such bastions of the rust belt like Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin and also continue to be held hostage by public sector unions. Hell, we can actually emulate the Greek economy! Going back to the 19th century will be a welcome change!

  2. The time to rally around a unifying candidate to defeat Pat Toomey and the Republican majority is NOW! That candidate is Katie McGinty!

    Follow us on twitter @DraftMcGinty
    https://twitter.com/draftmcginty

    Learn more about Katie:

    Katie McGinty is a recognized leader in environmental protection, business investment, job growth, and energy innovation. With more than twenty-five years of experience in public service and the private sector, Katie knows how to solve big problems at the highest levels, and she knows how to fight for working families. In Katie, Democrats throughout Pennsylvania have an energetic and compassionate voice to fight for middle class families.

    Katie was born in northeast Philadelphia the ninth of ten kids to a police officer and a hostess. After attending college and law school on scholarships, she worked her way up within the Clinton Administration, eventually serving as a trusted advisor to President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore as the first woman to chair the White House Council on Environmental Quality. Later, she served our state and Governor Ed Rendell as the first female Secretary of the Department of Environmental Protection. Since 2008, Katie has been working in the private sector helping to drive sustainable business development.

    Katie, her husband Karl, and their three daughters live in Wayne, Chester County.

  3. i know Joe Sestak. He is a friend of many in Delaware and Montgomery Counties. He is a wonderful, intelligent, clear thinking independent former Congressman, whose votes were consistent with the district he represented. If the party pols weren’t unhappy with someone who thought for himself, listening to the people instead of the ” bosses” and had helped his campaign, we would not have Toomey in the Senate. I hope they don’t repeat the mistake. Give him help. Give him respect and we can turn the Senate around.

  4. McGinty has been, is and will be a loser. Have Dems in PA become so desperate that we need to scrape the bottom of the barrel with mediocrity like McGinty. A Gore like clone with no real credentials other than she will be a lackey for left wing , corrupt and anti Israel loonies who have taken over Dems. So sad we have gone from JFK , RFK and Henry Jackson to crap like Kerry, Obama and McGinty.

  5. Yawn! I like Katie, but she will not beat Sestak. At least not without destroying the chance to win in the fall. The authors fall to realize that Sestak is by far the better choice for the fall. He is just not the choice of Brady and party insiders. There is a reason he lost narrowly in the worst Democratic year since 1992, he fits PA better than any other politician except maybe Bob Casey. If Hillary is the nominee, Toomey and the Club for Growth folks can pack it in.

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