Another election analyst is shifting the presidential race towards the Democrats favor in Pennsylvania.
According to Politico’s Election Forecast, Pennsylvania is one of four states moving from the Toss Up category to Leans Democratic for the presidential election in November.
“Polls show Joe Biden with a 5-10 point lead in Pennsylvania — the largest swing state other than Florida,” Steven Shepard writes for Politico.
The three other states moving towards former Vice President Joe Biden’s favor are Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire, in the ratings update on July 6.
Shepard continues to write that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which all flipped to President Donald Trump in 2016 after voting for President Barack Obama twice, are “at the heart of Democrats’ strategy to win back the presidency.” While Michigan and Pennsylvania moved to the Leans Democratic column, Wisconsin remains a Toss Up and described as “the most Republican-friendly of the three.”
Shepard also cites the recent New York Times/Siena College poll, that shows Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 50-to-40, in the Keystone State. The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.
Neither party has the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House, but Shepard describes Biden as “the clear favorite in the race” in the Election Forecast.
Democrats have 268 electoral votes in either the Solid, Likely, and Lean categories in the latest ratings, which is just 2 electoral votes shy of the majority needed to win the presidency.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also changed the rating for the presidential race in the state from Toss Up to Leans Democratic on June 25, while the Cook Political Report’s latest ratings update on June 19 kept the Keystone State as a Toss Up.
The lone race currently listed as a Toss Up in Pennsylvania according to Politico’s Election Forecast is the matchup between Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) and Democrat Eugene DePasquale for the 10th Congressional District.
Although Perry’s reelection bid is the only Toss Up according to Politico, they have five races in the state in the “leans” category for the incumbent which include the reelection bids of Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks), Mike Kelly (R-Butler), Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny), and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh).