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Politico Pushes PA From Toss Up to Leans Dem for Presidential Race

Another election analyst is shifting the presidential race towards the Democrats favor in Pennsylvania. 

According to Politico’s Election Forecast, Pennsylvania is one of four states moving from the Toss Up category to Leans Democratic for the presidential election in November. 

“Polls show Joe Biden with a 5-10 point lead in Pennsylvania — the largest swing state other than Florida,” Steven Shepard writes for Politico

The three other states moving towards former Vice President Joe Biden’s favor are Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire, in the ratings update on July 6. 

Shepard continues to write that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which all flipped to President Donald Trump in 2016 after voting for President Barack Obama twice, are “at the heart of Democrats’ strategy to win back the presidency.” While Michigan and Pennsylvania moved to the Leans Democratic column, Wisconsin remains a Toss Up and described as “the most Republican-friendly of the three.” 

Shepard also cites the recent New York Times/Siena College poll, that shows Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 50-to-40, in the Keystone State. The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.

Neither party has the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House, but Shepard describes Biden as “the clear favorite in the race” in the Election Forecast. 

Democrats have 268 electoral votes in either the Solid, Likely, and Lean categories in the latest ratings, which is just 2 electoral votes shy of the majority needed to win the presidency. 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also changed the rating for the presidential race in the state from Toss Up to Leans Democratic on June 25, while the Cook Political Report’s latest ratings update on June 19 kept the Keystone State as a Toss Up. 

The lone race currently listed as a Toss Up in Pennsylvania according to Politico’s Election Forecast is the matchup between Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) and Democrat Eugene DePasquale for the 10th Congressional District. 

Although Perry’s reelection bid is the only Toss Up according to Politico, they have five races in the state in the “leans” category for the incumbent which include the reelection bids of Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks), Mike Kelly (R-Butler), Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny), and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh).

Politico’s Pennsylvania ratings can be found here. The most recent Election Forecast update can be found here.

9 Responses

  1. You are absolutely out of your mind if you think Biden is going to beat Trump, the only way this will happen, is if they cheat their way in the polls! Covid-19 is what they are trying to pull off now, riots didn’t work! What’s next, Mail in votes, keeping Biden in the baseball! BLM!!!! WTH!! Ridiculous!!! Trump 2020????????????????????????

  2. Carville and many savvy politicos are saying it’s already game set match for Biden. What is the real worry pollsters saying Pa leaning Dem for Biden is down ballot races and that is where three major Pa Congressional races kick in. Fitzpatrick is starting to look bad in Bucks County with a rapidly trending Dem county and a suburban Philly county that is totally turned off to Trump. If the Bucks County Dems cannot beat Fitzpatrick in this environment they need to quit politics. Pa leaning Dem is also a big boost to Cartwright and DePasquale.

    1. You mean loses every state. Vegas has Biden as a 17-10 favorite. Back in January it was Trump as a 17-10 favorite. Bet em up Ryan!

  3. SAVE AMERICA – GO WITH JOE – DUMP TRUMP. If you’re still even considering voting for Trump after he totally mismanaged the COVID-19 crisis, just consider if he is President and a foreign policy crisis hits. He’s shunned our NATO allies and Putin knows he is Trump’s puppet master. And you know the Orange idiot will pull his “I ALONE” Bullsh!t and ignore his military and intelligence experts. Really folks – you may not like Biden, but Trump is a FAILURE – like he’s been at everything else.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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