Here are the moving averages for polls for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat and governor’s mansion.
- The last eight surveys find Fetterman leading 4-3 with one draw.
- Fetterman has reached 50% three times in October.
- Oz’s high water mark during October polling is 49.0 percent and has topped 47% on four other occasions.
- The average difference in all 42 polls is Fetterman by +5.5. The average of the five most recent surveys is Fetterman +1.4.
- Shapiro has not trailed in any poll.
- The 13 October surveys have shown Shapiro with a lead of double digits in eight of them.
- Since the beginning of October, Shapiro has been above 50% eleven times with a high of 56%. Mastriano’s high water mark in the same time frame is 43.5%.
- The average difference in all 35 polls is Shapiro by +10.2. The average of the five most recent surveys is Shapiro +12.3.
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I work for Oz, but I’m voting for Shapiro. Basically because I’ve spent years polishing Fitzpatrick’s meat spear. Got that split-ticket cream re-wiring my brain.
I think F&M is earning its C grade.
Agree with comment about one statewide race being close helping Dems. I didn’t think anyone could top Scott Wagner helping Dems statewide but Mastriano easily tops Wagner.
This race will be closer than Wolf v Wagner.
This is good news for the Dems trying to flip the state house or senate. If both of the headline races were seen as blowouts, turnout would be in the toilet – especially in the cities. Having one race be reasonably close keeps the unions and churches motivated.