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PoliticsPA Playbook Primary Race Updates

Good Thursday morning. Here’s a status update on all the primary races that have finalized since Wednesday morning – or remain up in the air today. 

U.S. Senate: Still no winner. As of early Thursday morning, Dr. Mehmet Oz holds a 1,200 vote (0.1%) lead over David McCormick for the GOP nomination. As Pennsylvania calls for an automatic recount for results decided by 0.5 points or less, that looks like the direction we are headed. The winner of the GOP race will face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who coasted to the Democratic Party nomination.

What You Need to Know About Recounts in PA. After a roller-coaster primary night, there are lots of questions that remain to be answered in Pennsylvania races.The most popular new question on Wednesday morning – will there be a recount?

What You Need to Know About McCormick vs. Oz. One minute, it’s Mehmet Oz over Dave McCormick. Then next, it’s McCormick over Oz.How many votes are still out there? Let’s take a look at data from the 10 largest GOP counties in the Commonwealth.

Lancaster County Hopes to Have All Mail-In Ballots Counted by Friday. The processing of thousands of misprinted primary election ballots continued in the Lancaster County Building Wednesday, with volunteers working to transfer voter selections from the unscannable mail-in ballots to new ones.

U.S. Congress

PA6: GOP: As of Thursday morning, it remains unclear who the Republican candidate will be for this race. Guy Ciarrocchi maintains a 3-point advantage over Steve Fanelli in the four candidate race for the GOP nomination. The winner will face Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester), who was unopposed in the Democratic Party primary, in the general election. 

PA7: GOP: The GOP race for the Lehigh Valley-based seat remains too close to call. Although things look good for Lisa Scheller, who was the GOP nominee in 2020, and holds a 2.6% lead over Kevin Dellicker for the Republican Party nomination as of this morning. The winner will advance to the general election to challenge Rep. Susan Wild, who was unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. 

PA10: DEM: Shamaine Daniels, a Harrisburg City Council member, bested Rick Coplen by a few points in the Democratic Party primary for the seat in the midstate. Daniels will take on Rep. Scott Perry (R-York), who was unopposed for the Republican Party nomination, for the seat in the general election. 

PA12: DEM: State Rep. Summer Lee maintains a narrow lead over Steve Irwin for the open seat in Pittsburgh that appears likely to hold. Lee has declared victory in the race, although Irwin has not conceded yet as a few thousand votes are outstanding. 

SD16: GOP: Sen. Pat Browne (R) still trails 30 votes behind conservative challenger Jarrett Coleman (an airline pilot recently elected to the Parkland School Board). The totals are 17,002 votes to 16,972 with 97% of the expected vote counted. It’s unclear exactly how many votes are outstanding, from where or whether they’re mail vs. same-day, according to the Morning Call. The winner will face Democrat Mark Pinsley in the general election in this Trump +7 district. 

State Senate

SD5: OPEN: Democrat Jimmy Dillon appears to have defeated GOP candidate Sam Oropeza in the special election to fill the seat previously held by Democrat John Sabatina (D). 

SD8: DEM: Dem State Senator Anthony Williams appears to have defeated primary opponent Paul Prescod by 20 points in this safe Dem Philadelphia County District. No GOP candidate is running.

SD14 OPEN: Dem: Nicholas Miller appears to hold a narrow lead over Tara Zrinski and Yamelisa Taveras in this Biden +22 Lehigh Valley District. This was an opportunity district, moved south from NEPA during reapportionment.= where it was previously held by Sen. John Yudichak (D-turned-I). 

SD34: OPEN GOP: Greg Rothman bested Michael Gossert by over 35% in this contested Harrisburg-area primary. Rothman will face Democratic nominee James Massey, who did not have a primary opponent in this Trump +24 district.

SD36: GOP: Incumbent Senator Ryan Aument defeated GOP challenger Mike Miller by 18% in this Trump +16 Lancaster County district, with 95% of the vote in. There is no Democrat on the ballot.

State House

HD4: OPEN GOP: Jacob Banta appears to have defeated Jason Monn and five other candidates by 16 points in an Erie County race to replace retiring Rep. Curt Sonney (R) in a Trump +24 district; No Dem was on the ballot. 

HD8: GOP: Rep. Aaron Bernstine, who faced a reapportionment shuffle, bested challenger John Kennedy by 8 points with 95% of the vote in. This is a +41 district in Mercer and Butler counties; no Democratic challenger is on the ballot.

HD9: GOP: Marla Gallow Brown appears to have a slight edge in this race over James Kerin and Darryl Audia in this Trump +26 Lawrence County district. The winner will face Democratic incumbent Chris Sainato in the general election.

HD10: Dem: Incumbent Amen Brown was moved from his old district to the 10th District this past redistricting cycle but that didn’t slow him down. He currently holds a slim lead over challengers Cassandra Greene and Sajda Blackwell in this safe Democratic district. 

HD22: DEM: Joshua Siegel bested Saeed George by 28% in this Biden +32 Lehigh County District to replace redistricted Rep. Peter Schweyer. The winner will face Republican candidate Robert Smith Jr. in November.

HD25: GOP: Stephen Schlauch appears to have secured a close victory over primary opponent John Ritter in the race to face incumbent Democrat Brandon Markosek in the general election. Biden won this Allegheny county district by 9% in 2020.

HD27: GOP: Ed Brosky appears to have defeated Tim Walker by 12 points in this GOP Allegheny County primary. The winner will face incumbent Democrat Daniel J. Deasy in this Biden +13 district.

HD31 GOP: Bernie Sauer defeated Jennifer Spillane in this Biden +17 Bucks County district. Sauer will face incumbent Rep. Perry Warren (D) in the general election.

HD34 DEM: Incumbent Summer Lee will have the option to hold onto her seat in the State House as she awaits the final results in her congressional bid. She bested challenger Abigail Salisbury by 32 points for renomination. 

HD49 DEM: In a new opportunity district in Lancaster County, Lancaster City Council President Izzy Smith-Wade-El defeated City Council colleague Janet Diaz by 38 points. About 90% of votes are counted. The district is safe Dem at +35 Biden. 

HD76 DEM: Denise Maris has secured the Democratic Party nomination over Elijah Probst by 24%. Maris will face incumbent Stephanie Borowicz in the fall. It’s a +34 Trump seat. 

HD83 GOP: Businessman Jamie Flick edged out Ann Kaufman, the district director for State Rep. Fred Keller, in this +27 Trump seat in Lycoming and Union counties. His lead is 2% with 95% of the vote counted. 

HD87 GOP: Thomas Kutz defeated Eric Clancy by 8 points in the Trump +12 district. Kristal Markle will be the Democratic opponent in November.

HD96 DEM: Incumbent Mike Sturla appears to have fended off a challenge from Dana Hemp Gulick by 12 points in his quest to take on Republican April Weaver in the Lancaster-area general election. It’s a Biden +27 seat. 

HD117 OPEN: Michael Cabell (32.4) leads Clint Lanning (25.2) and Eugene Ziemba (24.7) in a tight race for the GOP nomination in this solidly red district. There is no present challenger in the fall.

HD118 OPEN: James Haddock has reportedly declared victory and holds a 10 point lead over Allison Lucarelli for the Democratic nod, while James May appears to be his GOP opponent after dispatching John Lombardo by 16 points. This is a swing seat, Trump +3, in the area between Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. 

HD129 OPEN: Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz appears to have secured a 10-point lead over Mark Detterline for the Democratic nomination. The winner will square off with Barry Llewellyn in November.

HD139 OPEN GOP: Joseph Adams appears to have bested Robert Beierle and Elefterie Balu for the Republican Party nomination. Adams will face either Democrat Meghan Rosenfeld (53.5) or Marian Keegan (46.5) in the general election. This Pike/Wayne seat is +28 Trump. 

HD189 GOP: Steve Ertle holds a 14% lead over John Petrizzo in the GOP race to succeed state Rep. Rosemary Brown, in this +14 Biden district. The winner of the GOP primary will face Democrat Tarah Probst, who was unopposed in the primary, in the general election.

HD203 DEM: Anthony Bellmon bested Heather Miller and Yusuf Jackson in the solidly blue district. There is no GOP challenger in the fall.

Note: District-level Presidential results for State House and Senate come from Dave’s Redistricting App.

6 Responses

  1. Here’s and interesting question has Macho Man Mastriano even acknowledged who his Lt Gov running mate is for November? He spent months trying to bring Teddy Daniels up to be his Brother from another Mother running mate. His Handmaids Tale beliefs must be pulling him that he has to acknowledge a female as his equal and political partner.

  2. Recounts are superfluous. Whichever GOP MAGA leader wins now will hugely big in November!

  3. Recounts are superfluous. Whichever GOP MAGA leader wins now will hugely big in November.

  4. What about the Sen Pat Browne district where he lost by 30 votes? His opponent claims victory despite overseas ballots not yet counted either way he’s got problems. His opponent used photo making him look like Father Time with a grey beard and carrying extra pounds. Then politically walloped him over pension and if we have no pension who will be in the Senate? New district is filled with MAGA types. Not good for Browne’s political future.

    1. Interestingly, Browne lost in the part that was in the previous district, while winning in the new parts of the district (Bucks County).

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

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