By Alex Roarty
PoliticsPA Staff Writer
roarty@politicspa.com

HARRISBURG – Dave Argall said repeatedly Monday morning incumbent U.S. Rep Tim Holden (D) won’t be easy to defeat, even saying at one point his chances at winning might “not be up to 50 percent yet.”

But the newly declared Republican congressional candidate said if there was ever a time to defeat the longtime incumbent Holden, whose moderate reputation has helped him easily hold on to the seat for 18 years, 2010 might be it.

“One of the things people have been telling me is, if we’re ever going to win this seat, this is the year,” Argall told a small group of supporters in an office just a block from the Capitol. “People are very upset at the Democrats in Washington.”

Argall, a former House Republican leader and now state senator, officially declared his candidacy Monday morning after a more than a month of speculation he was considering a campaign. His kick-off announcement in Harrisburg was the first of six stops he was scheduled to make Monday, with at least one stop in each of the 17^th Congressional District’s five counties.

The senator wasted no time painting his opponent as a big-spending Democrat, who he linked repeatedly with President Obama, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. He connected their policies to the anxiety he said many Americans feel about their and the country’s future.

“We know people are afraid that maybe they can’t take their kids out for dinner on Friday night anymore, because if they’re not unemployed they’re afraid of being unemployed,” Argall said. “They’re worried about a massive federal debt.”

Linking Obama to Holden will likely be a common refrain on the campaign trail for Argall. Despite Holden cruising to an easy victory in 2008, Obama lost the 17^th District to Republican presidential candidate John McCain by three percentage points.

The strength of Argall’s candidacy, Republicans think, lays in his ability to attract votes in his home of Schuylkill County, which he has represented in Harrisburg for a quarter of a century. The area has long been a rock bed of support for Holden because of his ties to it – the congressman was a Schuylkill County sheriff from 1987 to 1992.

A Republican who can win roughly 45 percent of the votes there can defeat Holden because the rest of the district is relatively conservative, Republicans say. No GOP candidate has been able to garner more than 40 percent of the vote in Schuylkill County against Holden.

But the weakness of Argall’s candidacy was also on full display Monday – literally. Harrisburg activist Gene Stilp parked his favorite prop, an inflatable pink pig the size of a small bus, outside of the office Argall used to declare his candidacy.

The pig is a reminder of Argall’s role in the now infamous 2005 pay-raise in the General Assembly, a vote that led to more than 50 House members retiring or being defeated the next year. The prop, which was clearly visible through the windows of the room Argall spoke in, read, “Payjacker Argall: Pay Back the Money.”

“I wish I could take that vote back – it was certainly a mistake,” said Argall, who added he later donated all of the money to charity.

“I think voters will consider this issue,” he said later. “I think they will want to know about job creation. They want to know about unemployment. So this will just be one of the many issues.”

The senator added he hopes Stilp shows up with the pig prop to Holden’s events, because he said the congressman has voted for four pay raises.

Stilp said he planned to follow Argall with the prop to his next five events.

The race between Holden and Argall will likely be one of the most closely watched in Pennsylvania, with observers seeing it as a test of a Democratic congressman’s ability to retain his or her moderate reputation with President Obama in office.

“I understand it’s not going to be easy,” Argall said. “John McNally, the chairman of the Dauphin County Republican Committee, and I talked about the fact it’s never easy running against an incumbent .But it can be done. I would not be standing here if I did not think it was possible.”

The 17^th District comprises Dauphin, Schuylkill, Perry, Lebanon and Berks counties.