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Poll: 2 in 5 Undecided on Casey vs. McCormick

Bob Casey, Dave McCormick

According to a recently released poll, 2 in 5 Pennsylvanians have yet to make up their mind when it comes to choosing a candidate for the U.S. Senate.

National Public Affairs, a group headlined by former Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, surveyed 759 likely Pennsylvania voters during mid-March and found that just 32 percent backed Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr., while 28 percent supported Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.6%.

The survey could be viewed as an outlier when looking at the 32-28 numbers, as previous 2024 polls from inside and out of the Keystone State have had Casey and McCormick not lower than 45 and 35 percent, respectively.

That said, there is a rationale.

“We didn’t provide a ‘lean’ option … and then combine it into the ballot test, as some do,” wrote Stepien in an email reply to the question. “That would also (artificially) lower the number of undecideds.”

Analysis of the survey indicates that respondents were not asked if they preferred “Democrat Bob Casey Jr.” or “Republican Dave McCormick.” Rather, the candidates were not given a party label.

“We find that asking the ballot question in this manner provides the truest measurer of the state of play of the particular race at this early stage,” said Stepien.

NPA’s numbers seem to show that McCormick has more room to grow with his base than does Casey, as the percentage of undecideds among those who viewed former President Donald Trump (41%) favorably was higher than those who viewed President Joe Biden favorably (34%).

Casey’s numbers were strongest among women (33-24%) and at the ends of the age spectrum – 18-24 (38-14%), 55-64 (36-22%) and 65+ (35-24%). The three-term senator also did better among non-whites (37-19%) and college educated (38-26%).

McCormick’s numbers were higher among men (33-32%) and those between the ages of 35-54 – 33-44 (41-20%) and 45-54 (37-31%).

NPA’s profile of undecided voters – 65 percent of whom have no opinion or have never heard of McCormick – are disproportionately more likely to be female, non-college educated and Republican-leaning. Forty-seven percent of the respondents have no opinion or never heard of Casey.

NPA Polling Numbers, March 2024

 





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