How big of a role Pennsylvania will play in the upcoming Democratic Primary remains to be seen, but another new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading the pack in the keystone state.
According to a new Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, respondents who indicated that they think of themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party selected Biden as their first choice if the primary were held today in Pennsylvania. 31.3% selected the Scranton native as their first choice, while 20.5% selected Sen. Bernie Sanders as their first choice, 11.5% picked Sen. Elizabeth Warren as their first choice, and 11% said they were unsure. None of the other Democratic presidential hopefuls cracked double digits, although former New York City Mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg was the first selection for 9.1% of people polled and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg rounded out the top 5 with 6.5%.
Answers differed when respondents were asked who would be their second choice if the Democratic primary were held today in Pennsylvania. 20.1% selected Sanders as their second choice, 17.8% selected Biden as their second option, 15.3% picked Warren as their second choice, and 16.5% said they were unsure. The next closest to surpassing the double digit threshold was Bloomberg with 9.9% selecting him as their second choice and 6.1% choosing Buttigieg as their second option.
The overall online poll surveyed 1,037 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania, which conducted interviews between Jan 8- Jan. 20, has a ±3.3% margin of error, although the memo notes that the questions for demographic subgroups “necessarily have a higher margin of error.” It is unclear what the exact margin is on this specific question.
The last question asked to the specific group of voters who identified as Democrats or leaning toward the Democratic Party showed that a majority, 56.3%, of them were satisfied with the current slate of candidates seeking the Democratic Party nomination.
20.2% said they were very satisfied, 36.1% said they were somewhat satisfied, 22.7% said they were neither satisfied nor unsatisfied, 11.8% said they were somewhat unsatisfied, and 4.6% said they were very unsatisfied. 4.6% said that they were unsure.
While the overall polling showed that Trump is trailing the generic Democratic candidate for President if the election were held today, another interesting takeaway asked to all who participated in the poll was about the current state of the Democratic and Republican Party.
Over half of those polled, 53.2%, believe that the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left, while just under half, 48.3% believe that the Republican Party has moved too far to the right.
31.8% said they strongly agreed with the statement that “the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left,” while 21.4% said that they somewhat agreed. 15.1% said that they somewhat disagreed with that statement, while 12.8% said they strongly disagreed. 18.9% said they were unsure if they agreed with the statement or not.
28.3% said that they strongest agreed with the statement that the “Republican Party has moved too far to the right,” while 20% said that they somewhat agreed. 19.6% said they somewhat disagreed with that statement, while 12.2% said they strongly disagreed. 20% said they were unsure if they agreed with that statement or not.
The margin of error on those two questions about the direction of the party is ±3.3%.
This same polling showed that Trump trailed whoever the Democratic presidential nominee will be in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to Cleveland.com, a poll from Baldwin Wallace a month before the 2016 election showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Trump 43.2% to 34.4% with a “substantial number” undecided at the time in Ohio. In the 2016 election, Clinton received nearly exactly the number from that poll, 43.6%, but Trump won by a comfortable margin carrying 51.7% of the vote in the state.
Pa. holds its 2020 primary on April 28, right at the midpoint of the Democratic calendar.
See the full data for the poll here.