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Poll: Biden 47.3, Trump 44.6

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slight lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

A new Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakers Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state while 5.4% remain undecided. 

The latest polling also included head-to-head matchups between the presidential candidates in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden leads Trump by 9 points in Wisconsin and 8 points in Michigan, while Trump has a 0.6% edge over Biden in Ohio. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Baldwin Wallace University polling favors Democrats by an average of 0.7% and has an overall C/D grade. 

Trump’s job approval rating in the Keystone State is slightly under water in this latest poll as well. 47.9% strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 51% strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the presidency. Trump’s job approval rating is under water in the four states polled, although his strongest numbers are in Pennsylvania. 

Biden is the lone candidate on the two presidential tickets to have a positive net favorability rating in Pennsylvania. 48.1% have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 45.3% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Just over half, 51.9%, have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 44.8% have a favorable opinion of him. 

Vice President Mike Pence edges out Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) in favorability rating, although both are under water. 42.5% have a favorable opinion of Pence, while 44.9% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 12.6% are unsure. 39.6% have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 44% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 16.4% are unsure. 

Although Trump trails Biden, Pennsylvania voters are torn between supporting Democrats and Republicans for Congress. 44.8% said that they’d vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in their district if the election were held today, while 44.5% said they’d support the Democratic candidate. 

One thing that sets Pennsylvania apart from the four battleground states polled is how they plan to vote in the upcoming election. 57.7% of Pennsylvania voters said that they plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 33.5% said that they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot. Pennsylvania is the lone state of the four polled where over 50% of voters plan to vote in person. 

Polling released this week shows Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. 

A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters released over this past weekend showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Monday showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 6 points among likely voters, 48-to-42, and 9 points, 49-to-40, among registered voters in the state.  

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.7 points in Pennsylvania.

This overall poll, surveying 1,012 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between September 8-20, has a margin of error of +/-3.6%. 

The full data can be found here.

3 Responses

  1. Surveying only 1,012 likely voters is really difficult to give anyone an edge. Biden is under performing in PA. In fact has worse numbers then Hillary did at this point in 2016

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    Total Voters: 30

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