Poll: Biden 49.6, Trump 44.5
Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a couple point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
A new Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%, in the state while 4% remain undecided.
The latest polling also included head-to-head matchups between the presidential candidates in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden leads Trump by 7 points in Michigan and 6 points in Wisconsin, while Trump has a 1.6% edge over Biden in Ohio.
Biden slightly extended his lead in the Keystone State, in comparison to their most recent polling from mid-September that showed Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state while 5.4% remain undecided.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Baldwin Wallace University polling favors Democrats by an average of 0.7% and has an overall C/D grade.
Trump’s job approval rating remains under water in this latest poll as well. 46.9% strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency in Pennsylvania, while 51.8% strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the presidency.
Like most recent polling in the state, a majority of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while a majority of voters disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak.
53% strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 44.6% strongly or somewhat disapprove. 41.8% strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, while 55.8% strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the matter.
The polling also pinned Biden and Trump against each other on four topics with the former VP having the advantage over Trump on each of them. Biden leads Trump on who would do a better job uniting the country (50.9%-to-37.4%), handling the protests (48.3%-to-43.3%), reducing violence in the country (48.3%-to-41.7%), and handling the coronavirus outbreak (51.3%-to-38.5%).
Biden is the lone candidate on the two presidential tickets to have a positive net favorability rating in Pennsylvania. 49.6% have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 43.9% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Just over half, 52.6%, have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 43.4% have a favorable opinion of him.
Vice President Mike Pence slightly edges out Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) in favorability rating, although both are under water. 42.8% have a favorable opinion of Pence, while 43.8% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 13.4% are unsure. 41.5% have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 43.5% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 15% are unsure.
One thing that sets Pennsylvania apart from the four battleground states polled is how they plan to vote in the upcoming election. 60.6% of Pennsylvania voters said that they plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 32.7% said that they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot. Pennsylvania is the lone state of the four polled where over 50% of voters plan to vote in person.
Numerous polls have been released in October that show Biden leading in the state, although this margin varies by the pollster.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Reuters-Ipsos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polling comes from Quinnipiac University that shows the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP leaning polls released in late September also have Biden leading the race, although the polling is tighter. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 7.1 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 1,140 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between Sept. 30 to Oct. 8, has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
The full data can be found here.