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Poll: Biden 49, Trump 45

The presidential race is tightening in Pennsylvania according to this latest battleground survey.

New polling from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the Keystone State shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45. Biden leads Trump by 6 points in Michigan, 51-to-45, and 4 points in Wisconsin, 50-to-46. 

Biden’s lead is one point larger, 49-to-44, among registered voters in the state. 

This latest poll is an improvement for Trump in Pennsylvania in comparison to their battleground survey conducted in late July/early August. Biden held a 10 point lead, 52-to-42, among likely voters in that poll, while leading by 9 points, 50-to-41, among registered voters. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, YouGov favors Democrats by an average of 0.4% and has an overall B grade. 

45% of registered voters in the state “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of Trump’s overall handling of the presidency, while 53% “strongly” or “somewhat” disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Although Trump’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is underwater, it is higher than the other two states polled. 

Trump also receives negative ratings in the state for his handling of the economy and protests.

46% of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 50% disapprove. Trump’s approval rating on the economy was one point higher in both Michigan and Wisconsin. 

43% of registered voters say they are “satisfied” with Trump’s handling of protests, while 57% say they are “dissatisfied” with his handling of the matter. Trump’s -14 net approval rating on the matter in Pennsylvania is worse than the ratings in Michigan and Wisconsin, where 55% (-10%) said they were “dissatisfied” with his handling of the protests. 

Another constant that has been evident in several recent polls is that a majority of Pennsylvania likely voters are planning on voting in-person on Election Day. 66% of likely voters in the state say that they plan to vote in-person, while 33% say they will vote by-mail. 57% of likely voters in Wisconsin say they will vote in-person, while 47% of likely voters in Michigan say they will vote in-person on Election Day. 

A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning showed that 60% of voters in the state say that they expect to cast their ballot in person, while 34% say they expect to vote-by-mail. A CNBC/Change Research poll released on Wednesday morning showed that 55% of Pennsylvanians plan on voting in person on Election Day, while 33% plan on voting by mail.

Numerous polls released this week show Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. 

A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters released over this past weekend showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Monday showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakers Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll of likely Pennsylvania voters released on Wednesday shows Biden with a 4 point advantage, 49-to-45. Biden’s largest lead from polls this week comes from a Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning that has Biden leading Trump by 6 points among likely voters, 48-to-42, and 9 points, 49-to-40, among registered voters in the state.  

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.7 points in Pennsylvania.

This poll, surveyed 800 registered voters, including 642 likely voters, collected data between September 10-21. The registered voter polling has a margin of error of +/-4.28%. The likely voter polling has a margin of error of +/-4.73%.  

The full battleground survey can be found here.

5 Responses

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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