Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by several points in Pennsylvania according to this latest poll.
The latest battleground survey from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of registered voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 50-to-41. Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is the largest in the three states polled with the former VP leading the president by 6 points in Wisconsin, 49-to-43, and 4 points in Michigan, 47-to-43.
Biden also extends his lead among registered voters who say they are “certain” to vote in the presidential election. Biden leads Trump by 10 points, 52-to-42, in that specific PA poll, which is also greater than his leads in Wisconsin and Michigan.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, YouGov favors Democrats by an average of 0.4% and has an overall B grade.
Trump’s job approval rating is under water in all three states polled, although his best numbers of the three polled are Pennsylvania. 46% strongly approve or somewhat approve of Trump’s job performance as president in the state, while 54% strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove of the president’s job performance. While Trump’s net approval rating is -8 points in Pennsylvania, he carries a -15 net approval rating in Michigan and Wisconsin.
A majority of voters in Pennsylvania, 55%, were dissatisfied of Trump’s handling of the protests over the death of George Floyd, while 45% said that they were satisfied with the president’s handling of the matter. Although these numbers are -10 points under water, they are slightly better than his ratings on the matter over Michigan (-22) and Wisconsin (-12).
Both candidates hold strong numbers within their own party although Biden has a 4 point edge over Trump, 45-to-41, with Independents in Pennsylvania.
Biden leads Trump by 19 points, 55-to-36, among women voters in the state, while the president has a 2 point edge over the former VP, 47-to-45, among men voters.
A “clear majority,” 62%, of Pennsylvania voters said that they plan to vote in-person in November, while 38% said that they intend to vote-by-mail. Pennsylvania is home to the largest amount of voters who are likely to vote in-person in this three state poll, with 55% of Wisconsin voters said that they plan to vote in-person and only 47% of Michigan voters saying that they intend to vote in-person for the presidential election.
A majority of Pennsylvania voters, 54%, strongly or somewhat approve of Gov. Tom Wolf’s job performance, while 46% strongly or somewhat disapprove of the governor’s job performance. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has the highest net approval rating of the three (+10), followed by Wolf with an 8 point net approval rating, and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) with a 5 point net approval rating.
Biden’s lead in this poll is a bit higher than recent polling in the state. The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.7 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 742 registered voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between July 27-August 6, has a margin of error of +/- 4.85%.
The full battleground survey can be found here.