Poll: Biden 51, Trump 45

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a six point lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to the latest PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen

51% of likely voters polled said they support Biden, while 45% said they support Trump. 

Biden’s lead in the state remains unchanged in comparison to their polling conducted prior to the last debate in mid-October that showed Biden also leading Trump by 6 points, 49%-to-43%. 

The polling also shows Biden with the advantage in two other voter turnout models. In the strong Democratic voter turnout model, Biden leads Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. In the strong Republican voter turnout model, Biden leads Trump by 2 points, 49%-to-47%.

Biden holds a significant advantage in the Philadelphia area, while Trump has the edge in the rest of the state. 61% support Biden in the Philadelphia area, while 35% back Trump. The president holds an 8 point lead over the former VP in the rest of the state. 

The PoliticalIQ survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen with field work conducted by RMG Research Inc polled 800 Pennsylvania likely voters from Oct. 25-27 and has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

The article from PoliticalIQ breaking down all of the results can be found here

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, RMG Research has an overall B/C grade. 

A majority of polling in October has consistently shown Biden leading Trump in the state. Biden’s lead in this poll is a few points larger in comparison to the current Real Clear Politics average.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state released on Wednesday evening showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state released on Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Friday morning showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A third Quinnipiac University poll released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. However, a Trafalgar Group poll released on Tuesday showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. 

One other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and one Democratic backed poll released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 3.7 points in Pennsylvania.

October 31st, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 5 Comments

5 thoughts on “Poll: Biden 51, Trump 45”

  1. truth says:

    Trump and crime family are a total shit show that threatens democracy.

  2. The Huckabeast says:

    The end of the Trumpmare is near…….

  3. Patrick Henry the 2nd says:

    Noted for future clam chowder.

    TRUMPSLIDE INCOMING

    1. David Diano says:

      Trump slides into poverty and incarceration after Biden inaugurated.

      1. Patrick Henry the 2nd says:

        LOL NOPE. ENJOY FOUR MORE YEARS!!

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