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Poll: Casey Leads Opponents by 18-20 Points

By Keegan Gibson and John McDonald

The good news keeps rolling for Bob Casey. Though his approval rating in general and support among Democrats in particular aren’t overwhelming, the latest survey from Public Policy Polling shows the freshman United States Senator easily ahead of all prospective opponents, and at least 18 points above those who have leaned toward a run.

Casey leads the only officially announced candidate, Harrisburg-area attorney Marc Scaringi, 47 percent to 29 percent.

Casey also leads Scranton Tea Party founder Laureen Cummings, who has announced her intention to run but has yet to officially declare, by a margin of 51 to 31 percent.

Only former Senator Rick Santorum, who is running for President, comes within 10 points of Casey (48 to 39 percent).

Casey’s potential GOP rivals are, aside from former Senator Rick Santorum, unknown.
Each is recognized by less than a third of voters. Congressman Tim Murphy is seen most
favorably with a 19-14 favorability rating while everyone else is in the red. Murphy is
followed by Congressman Jim Gerlach at 11-15, state senator Jake Corman at 9-13, Tea
Party activist Laureen Cummings at 5-12, and attorney Marc Scaringi at 4-12.

Corman recently ruled out a run, and Gerlach and Murphy are seen as unlikely candidates.

The survey of 545 Pennsylvania voters finds Casey with an approval rating (40 approve / 32 disapprove) similar to what it was when PPP last canvassed the Keystone State in April (39 approve / 35 disapprove)  The Commonwealth’s senior U.S. Senator continues to garner support from a small majority of Democrats (56 percent), while Independents continue to disapprove of his performance (25 approve / 39 disapprove).

Meanwhile, Casey continues to display relatively strong crossover appeal among GOP voters, 23 percent of whom approve his job performance, according to the PPP survey.

“Casey starts off in a solid position,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “With Casey garnering significant support among Republicans, it will take a
strong opponent to defeat him.”

Just a few moments before the poll was published, Politico posted this report of PA Democratic Party Chairman Jim Burn boasting that PA’s 2012 Senate race is all but over.

“Republicans have to reluctantly admit they don’t have a candidate because they can’t beat [Sen. Bob Casey],” Burn told POLITICO. “If they don’t have someone with name recognition and ability to campaign by now, they’re not going to have someone.”

The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

2 Responses

  1. Senator Casey is not liberal enough for today’s democrats. He only got elected in 2006 because of his anti-bush stance. Bob Casey did little campaigning. Insert Bob Casey voted with Obama 99% of the time & attack ads on a Senator who cannot defend himself & is as bland as they come, Casey is very vulnerable the GOP would be foolish not to pour money into this race.

  2. Tom Ridge needs to realize it is time for him to come to the aid of his party and get in to this race. Although I have given hundreds of thousands of dollars to GOP candidates, I won’t spend a nickel on any of the current (empty suits)GOP names thinking they have a prayer of a chance against Sen. Casey. Tom, we need you!!! Casey is vulnerable! We just need a real candidate with a chance!

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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