Democratic candidates John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro hold commanding leads in their races for the U.S. Senate and the governor’s mansion in a poll released by Blueprint Polling.
Fetterman leads Republican challenger Mehmet Oz by nine points (48.9% to 39.6%). It is the largest poll margin that the lieutenant governor has held over the celebrity doctor and boosts his average lead to 7.1 percent.
Shapiro has a double-digit advantage over GOP opponent Doug Mastriano and has topped the 50 percent mark – 50.7% to 39.4%. The margin nearly triples his advantage from the Suffolk University poll in mid-June and gives him an average lead of 5.3 percent.
“This could be a sign that Shapiro’s advertising is beginning to pay off,” said Stephen Medvic, Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College. “He’s painting Mastriano as an extremist, and there hasn’t been a response from Mastriano, and it could be that voters are getting the message. Having said that, it’s too early to know for sure and I’d urge caution in interpreting these results until other polls find something similar.”
According to Blueprint, one in five Shapiro voters say given the option between the current attorney general and a moderate Republican, they would have either voted for the Republican or are unsure how they would have voted. Over 1 in 4 undecideds also stated they would choose a more moderate GOP candidate.
“While an unnamed, hypothetical candidate is not the same as a flesh-and-blood politician, it’s clear that the race for governor would be closer at this time if the Republicans had nominated a candidate who appealed to centrists – and given the bad midterm environment, very likely would have tilted in the GOP’s favor,” wrote the pollster.
Blueprint also polled a potential Joe Biden – Donald Trump rematch in 2024. Biden held a five-point lead back in February but the advantage has all but disappeared into a statistical tie at 42-41 percent. The president’s lead has shrunk six points among both college-educated voters (12%) and women (9%).
Blueprint Polling is a sister company to Chism Strategies that conducts survey research in federal, state, and local elections. This survey of 712 likely voters July 19-21, 2022, included landline and mobile phone responses and has a margin of error of +/- 3.67%. Blueprint conducted this research with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group.